Southeast Asia could become ISIL’s next base, as the terrorist organization seeks to expand its operations outside of the Middle East and North Africa.
Organizations inspired by ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) are already gaining ground in the region, which is rich in latent jihadist potential: Small jihadist movements are operating in Indonesia and the Philippines; an ongoing Muslim insurgency is burning in southern Thailand; there is strong support for Sharia law in parts of Malaysia; and a large number of Southeast Asians who have fought in Syria and Iraq have since returned to the region.
ISIL hopes that a base — or wilayat — can catalyze these forces into a powerful regional jihadist movement. ISIL’s influence in the region has been growing steadily since mid-2014. The organization poses a significant threat in part “because of how fast it’s gained popularity among regional groups,” said Joseph Liow, a senior fellow at the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies in Washington.
“Economically, Southeast Asia is very unique, and given the high density of countries in the neighborhood, including large Muslim populations in Indonesia, Malaysia and southern Philippines, it is only natural for ISIL to look to the region,” said Vikram Rajakumar, a senior analyst at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore.
Southeast Asia is fertile ground for ISIL in part because it has strong pre-existing terrorist networks in place. Until recently, extremist groups waged mostly local battles. Now, they have begun to link up across national borders, inspired by ISIL’s global approach.
The well-established Katibah Nusantara (KN) is led by three Indonesian militants based in Syria. The group claims to represent Southeast Asians fighting on behalf of ISIL, and has some 200 fighters based in Raqqa, according to Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington.
The group’s members are active in spreading ISIL propaganda, recruiting members, coordinating attacks, and fostering terrorist networks back in their home countries,” said Thanawan Klumklomchit, the regional terrorism prevention officer at the U.N. Office on Drug and Crime. “KN could be an important enabling factor for ISIL,” she added.
Homegrown terrorist groups in the region, some which have pledged loyalty to ISIL, have appropriated many of its more successful strategies. They cultivate a strong social media presence on Facebook and Twitter, and use encrypted forms of communication like WhatsApp and Telegram to plan and carry out attacks, raise funds, and attract new members. “Evidence is pointing towards Southeast Asia groups seeking inspiration from one another,” said Rajakumar.
ISIL has partly also been popular among extremist groups in the region because it does not seek to control their operations as Al Qaeda had done. “It just wants these groups to ‘hurt its enemies,’” said Bilveer Singh, a regional security specialist at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. Pledging allegiance to ISIL is also a useful mechanism for local fighters to get military training, funding and combat experience.
ISIL-linked attacks in the region have been small-scale so far, but analysts warn that more ambitious operations are likely, as local leaders loyal to ISIL compete for supremacy. Some ISIL propaganda videos now boast Indonesian subtitles. One, posted in March, showed Indonesian children training with AK-47s.
Meanwhile, Islamic militants returning from Syria and Iraq come home with “unprecedented access” to funding, terrorist networks, combat skills and information skills,” said Klumklomchit.
“ISIL has sent hundreds of thousands of dollars to Southeast Asia to plan, prepare and execute attacks,” said Rohan Gunaratna, head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research.
Indonesia — home to the world’s largest Muslim population — has suffered multiple attacks, the most vicious of which were carried out by Jemaah Islamiyah, an Al Qaeda offshoot that has waged a separatist war for decades. Abu Bakar Bashir, the jailed radical cleric and leader of the militant Islamic group, has pledged loyalty to ISIL and encouraged his followers to do the same.
In January, a series of coordinated bomb and gun attacks in central Jakarta were claimed by ISIL, who said its “crusader alliance” had carried out the Paris-style attacks.
“We now know the Jakarta attacks took place after an order from an Indonesian in Syria affiliated with [ISIL],” said Sidney Jones, the director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict. “We now have some 500 Indonesian citizens in Syria, probably 250 to 300 fighters.” Several dozen others known to have successfully crossed into Syria have since returned. Tensions between the nation’s moderate Muslims and extremists are growing, and the government has been slow to impose preventive measures.
“January’s Jakarta attacks were directly funded by ISIL,” said Gunaratna. “But this is not the only isolated case. We have seen other examples of movement of funds to Malaysia and to Indonesia.”
Long-standing ethnic and religious conflicts in the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and to a lesser extent Malaysia, are adding fuel to the fire. Escalating domestic tensions make extremist recruiters’ jobs that much easier.
A predominately Catholic country, the Philippines has a small, marginalized Muslim population, some of whom have become radicalized. They have their own reasons for supporting an independent Islamic state. “All kinds of groups from within the region have congregated here to support their activities, all expressing their loyalties to ISIL,” said Singh. “It’s no longer just one Philippine group fighting the government, but joint operations of groups.”
The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) is the Philippines’ most dangerous militant organization. Operating out of Basilan, in the Sulu archipelago, with a strength of fewer than 500 fighters, ASG has abducted, assassinated, bombed and fought soldiers, police, local and foreigners for more than two decades — with the expressed goal of creating an Islamic state.
“ASG has pledged allegiance to ISIL, and ISIL is aware that they are the only militant jihadist group that has the capabilities of a full militia to mount operational attacks,” said Andrin Raj, Southeast Asia regional director at the International Association for Counterterrorism and Security Professionals.
The group is believed to have splintered into hardcore ideologues and mainly kidnap-for-profit bandits, making it harder to eradicate and track. They are also protected by the region’s borders with Malaysia and Indonesia, which are notoriously porous.
Another Philippines-based organization, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), have fought a decades-long war for an autonomous region in the impoverished southern island of Mindanao. Founded in 2010, the 400-strong group recently began displaying ISIL flags and making videos using the group’s rhetoric.
But Malaysia, although it has a far smaller Muslim population than its neighbors, may be the most vulnerable to attack. “An attack [in Malaysia] would be far more consequential in terms of terrorist aims, provoking societal tensions and a heavy-handed government response,” said Abuza. “Malaysia lacks the social resilience that Indonesia has in spades. Recruitment and radicalization is almost all done online, and it cuts across the entire socio-economic spectrum.”
An attack on a nightclub near Kuala Lumpur in June was the first ISIL-related attack in the country, allegedly plotted by a Malaysian extremist who fought with ISIL in Syria. The government has identified 150 ISIL cells since the beginning of 2015, and estimated some 50,000 ISIL sympathizers in the country.
In Thailand, rebels are fighting for greater autonomy for the 1.8 million Muslims in a country 90 percent Buddhist. The protracted conflict, now 12 years old, has killed more than 6,500 people.
So far, rebels have rejected outside attempts by jihadists like Jemaah Islamiyah to turn it into a religious conflict. But this could change. Relations between the Thai government and the rebels have soured, after several rounds of peace talks have failed. The stand-off could make younger rebels impatient and encourage them to break away from the old guard.
The danger is that they “take a page from the ISIL playbook and say that the only way to succeed is by ramping up the sectarian violence,” said Abuza.
On August 11 and 12, Thailand was hit by multiple explosions targeting tourist-popular towns of Hua Hin, Phuket and other locations, killing at least four and injuring 20. The attacks come days after a national referendum approved a constitution giving more power to the ruling military junta. No group has claimed responsibility, but attention could focus on southern militants. If so, this would be a new expansion of their insurgency and targets.
ISIL has not officially designated a specific country as a potential wilayat, but experts say the group has its eye on the southern Philippines. ASG’s leader, Isnilon Hapilon, pledged allegiance to ISIL earlier this year. The group has claimed responsibility for kidnapping at least 18 Indonesians and Malaysians in the Sulu and Celebes seas this year.
In an ISIL video released in June, Malaysian terrorist Rafi bin Udin described Hapilon as an amir, or leader, in the Philippines and encouraged terrorist attacks against Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.
“ISIL hopes creating a wilayat in the Philippines will give the impression that its global footprint is continuing to expand, despite its recent setbacks in the Middle East,” said James Brandon, head of political and security risk at Stirling Assynt, a U.K.-based consultancy. “It also hopes [a base] will act as a logistical and ideological hub for ISIL-influenced jihadists throughout Southeast Asia.”
An ISIL foothold in the Philippines would present “far-reaching security implications for the stability and prosperity of a rising Asia,” Gunaratna said.
Bangladesh may also come to play an important role in ISIL’s strategy. “There are existing jihadist movements there that can be reinvigorated, a secular government whose oppression of mainstream Islamists is making some more susceptible to jihadist viewpoints, and an inequitable socio-economic environment that can help fuel radicalization,” said Brandon. From a strategic perspective, a strong presence in Bangladesh would facilitate attacks on India, China and Myanmar — all of which are key enemies of ISIL. “Attacks there would boost the group’s profile,” he said.
ISIL is well placed to take on the role of taking revenge for perceived atrocities against Rohingya, Kashmiris, Uighurs and other minority Muslim groups. “This will allow jihadists to pose as being the ‘shield’ of Islam and to thereby make a play for the hearts and minds of ordinary Muslims,” Brandon said.
Any Southeast Asian wilayat is unlikely to be a stepping-stone or base for carrying out expanded attacks in Europe or the Caucasus. The terrorist threat, even among those who have aligned themselves loosely with ISIL, remains regionally focused.
But what happens in the Middle East and North Africa could influence the group’s success in Southeast Asia. The more ISIL’s territory shrinks, experts warn, the more fighters will be let loose for global acts of terrorism.
“At some point there is going to be a terrorist diaspora,” FBI Director James B. Comey, said at a recent conference. “Not all of the Islamic State killers are going to die on the battlefield.”
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