As the Islamic State terror group faces territorial losses in the Middle East, there are signs that the group is increasing its cooperation with local militant groups in Southeast Asia.
A new report from researchers at the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC), warns that Islamic State group supporters are networking in Southeast Asia and law enforcement agencies appear unprepared for the new threat.
“Over the last two years, ISIS has provided a new basis for cooperation among extremists in the region,” said Sidney Jones, IPAC director, in comments coinciding with the report’s release.
Focus on Philippine extremist groups
Four extremist groups are increasingly focusing on the southern Philippines’ Mindanao region, with fighters, instructors or funding at times from Indonesia or Malaysia. In turn, the groups have provided refuge, training sites, combat experience or arms.
“That cooperation could take on new importance as ISIS losses in the Middle East increase the incentive to undertake violence elsewhere rises,” Jones said.
Philippines President Rodergio Duterte, since taking office this year, launched negotiations to end the long running violence in the southern Philippines, offering “multiple options” to groups in terms of proposals to end the violence.
Ehud Ya’ari, an Israel-based military analyst and political commentator, sees a growing threat for Southeast Asia as military defeats for ISIS in the Middle East lead to hundreds of fighters returning to Asia.
“Once ISIS is defeated in the Levant – in the area between the two great rivers – the Euphrates – Iraq and Syria – some of them; many of them I don’t know are coming to the islands,” Ya’ari told a regional security seminar on the turmoil in the Middle East and implications for South East Asia.
“They see the islands of Indonesia, Philippines, etc. as a promising new base and they dedicate a growing amount of investment in the literature and propaganda to this region,” he said at the conference at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.
Elina Noor, director of the Malaysia-based Institute of Strategic and International Studies, said the southern Philippines will be a “regional hub” for the extremist operations.
But the IPAC report said while ISIS-driven unity among the groups may be only temporary, “it could leave behind a hard core of Mindanao-based jihadists who are more ideological than their predecessors and look to like-minded associates in the region for support.”
‘No Single Profile’ for IS supporters
Analysts, including Noor, see a threat from the numbers of people from Asia traveling to the Middle East to join with ISIS.
Malaysian authorities have reported a rising trend in arrests for terrorism related charges since 2013. For 2015 there were some “80 plus” arrests in Malaysia on terrorism charges. In 2016, authorities had detained 90 people as of August.
Noor said the arrests point to a broad profile of those supporting militant groups. “There is no single profile. They come from different age groups, they come from different professional and non-professional backgrounds,” she said.
Arrests included an Islamic religious teacher, senior government officials, military and security forces personnel, as well as teens and children as young as 14, including girls.
She said the reasons many travel to the Middle East include “genuine ideas to redress injustices in Syria and Iraq” as well as other countries. But she added there is a rising tone of a more conservative view of Islam in Southeast Asia among the groups.
“What many are now seeking is a puritanical brand of Islam. So that’s the ambition. And who is South East Asia [militants] turning to for that direction – West Asia, the Middle East,” she said.
She said governments, to tackle the issue of extremism, need to counter an ideology “rooted in political grievances, not religious ones, often rooted in a failure of good governance.”
Noor also called for the “de-politicization” of religion with governments needing to step back from “manipulating religion for political purposes.”
Riad Kahwaji, head of the United Arab Emirates’-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, warned against the “import” of the sectarian divisions within Islam that have deeply divided communities in the Middle East, at a terrible cost in life.
“The states here [in South East Asia] should work hard to prevent any division between the Islamic sects – the Sunnis and the Shias – they should work much harder to prevent any spill over from the troubles in the Middle East into South East Asian countries,”
Kahwaji said.
Analysts say the internet and social media has led to individuals being self-radicalized and capable of carrying out so called “lone wolf” attacks. Australia’s has faced a spate of such attacks and threats, with the national terrorism threat currently set at “probable”.
There are reported to be more than a hundred Australian nationals fighting or supporting ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Colin Rubenstein, executive director of the Australia-Israel and Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) said the concerns for regional countries will come after military action against Islamic State is over in Syria and Iraq.
“There’s no suggestion they will disappear [after then end to fighting]. As we’ve seen, it will globalize and in terms of coming back to their countries; obviously that process unfortunately can include Australia,” Rubenstein said. “So eternal vigilance and staying abreast, ahead of the curve, — that’s what the authorities are well aware they need to do.”
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