Al-Qaeda has received a huge setback with the killing of some of its most important members in the top-most chain of command. Abu Mohsin al-Misri, who went by his nom de guerre as Hussam Abd al-Rauf, was killed by Afghan forces in October this year in Ghazni province. Rauf was the deputy of Al-Qaeda’s chief Ayman al-Zawahiri who, according to some unverified reports, died two months back due to natural causes. Another top leader of the terrorist outfit, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, an Egyptian national who was the number two of Al-Qaeda, was reportedly killed in Iran three months ago by an Israeli hit-squad (although Tehran contests this). Despite the many setbacks, however, the terror outfit undoubtedly continues to be an imminent threat in the Central Asian region and the Indian subcontinent, like reported by orfonline.org.

A report from a UN monitor group, published in May 2020, suggested that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda still shared a strategic alliance. The report further claimed that the Taliban maintained regular contact with the Al-Qaeda even as the US-Taliban deal neared, indicating that the group would continue to adhere to its historically strong ties with the Al-Qaeda. Rauf’s killing in a Taliban stronghold of Andar district in central Ghazni, and the unearthing of the fact that he was living under Taliban protection for years, has further validated the claims of possible Taliban-Al-Qaeda ties. Even if the Al-Qaeda stays low in Afghanistan, military engagements of the group alongside the Taliban in various provinces of the country are likely to result in increased violence. Reports suggest that Al-Qaeda is covertly active in 12 Afghan provinces and maintains a manpower of 400 to 600 armed insurgents. Other than Al-Qaeda, foreign fighters from Pakistan, linked with groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Lashkar-e-Janghvi reportedly joined the Taliban in carrying out attacks on the Afghan security forces in Helmand this October, which raised further questions about Taliban’s commitment to the February deal signed with the United States.

Impact on the peace process

In light of recent killings of Al-Qaeda’s key elements in Taliban strongholds, former Afghan intelligence chief turned politician Rahmatullah Nabil reaffirmed the claims of the UN report that Al-Qaeda still maintains close ties with the Taliban and shares a direct link with the Quetta Shura. The Taliban has so far rejected these claims, but the ground realities paint a different picture. The Taliban wants the February deal to form the basis of the current negotiations going on in Doha. Reports of Taliban continuing ties with Al-Qaeda stand contrary to the February deal that includes cutting off ties with foreign terrorist groups. Both, the Afghan government and the Taliban, have spoken about significant progress in the negotiations but are lagging in discussing main items on the agenda such as a comprehensive ceasefire or the Taliban’s partnerships with foreign groups.

With the White House gearing up for an administration shift, the Taliban expects Joe Biden to remain on the same track laid down by President Trump and his Special Afghan Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad. Within the Pentagon, there is much policy calibration going around the future of the withdrawal strategy of the United States, given the emerging security conditions in Afghanistan over the past six months. General Mark Milley, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staffs Committee; and General Frank McKenzie, head of CENTCOM; based on their assessment of the conditions on the ground, have expressed their desire for the withdrawal to be further delayed to spring 2021. With intensified violence and a reduced US military presence, Biden might find himself in a tough position when he takes office in January 2021. Substantial reduction in US troops since February this year has caused serious damage to Afghan security, as it has resulted in major government strongholds falling into Taliban hands. Therefore, a change of tone is indeed expected from the new US administration, which may review the current withdrawal strategy based on conditions on the ground and set new limitations for the Taliban to take intra-Afghan negotiations more seriously. This approach will also be aligned with NATO’s Afghan policy, which calls for a “coordinated” and “responsible” withdrawal. On similar lines, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation has also expressed his dissatisfaction with the current withdrawal timeline of the United States and a preference for a more flexible US exit, in accordance with the conditions prevailing on the ground.

The current withdrawal strategy seems to endanger two decades’ progress with regard to nation-building and protection of civil liberties. With the continuing threat of foreign terrorist outfits like the Al-Qaeda breeding in Afghanistan, the Afghan government cannot negotiate with the same blind optimism as the Americans negotiated with the Taliban. A continued US presence until the intra-Afghan dialogues are concluded with a potential power-sharing agreement is in the best interest of the Afghans to secure peace and stability in the country. Meanwhile, for a fierce Taliban that wants to capture power through any means possible, such revaluation of policy could turn counter-productive, as it may find itself at loggerheads with the US, once again. For the new US administration, a responsible withdrawal strategy aligned with viable progress in the peace talks would be a favourable option as far as America’s longest war goes.

Future implications

As the Taliban continues to maintain strategic ties with the Al-Qaeda, their alliance remains the bone of contention in adhering to the terms of the US-Taliban deal. The reality is that this alliance is still capable of recruiting, training, and executing largescale, coordinated attacks. Hence, a need to see an end to this alliance is of utmost priority for the Afghans and the United States as well.

The Taliban is ascending with each day; it is a strengthening force with a substantial cadre and has the military wherewithal to sustain itself in the region. Al-Qaeda is a diminishing force globally, yet it continues to pose a threat in the Central Asian region and the Indian subcontinent by operating under the safe-haven provided by the Taliban Al-Qaeda’s pledge of loyalty to the “Commander of the Faithful,” which is the leader of the Taliban, who is regarded as the leader of Sunni Muslims across the world, binds the group to contribute to the Taliban’s long-term strategic and political ambitions. Historical relations and the ideological affinity the two groups share, are the main reasons why the Taliban would preserve its ties with Al-Qaeda. In addition to that, Al-Qaeda’s cadres, albeit limited in numbers, strengthen the Taliban’s military activities. For Al-Qaeda, which appears to be more of a regional threat than a global one, cutting off ties with the Taliban will further push the group towards the brink of extinction from Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent. Hence, this alliance is likely to endure and prosper clandestinely, parallel to the Taliban’s ongoing engagement with the Afghan government’s delegation in Doha, aimed at a potential political settlement.

Hundreds of Taliban fighters on Wednesday launched a massive armed attack against three key districts of southern Kandahar province, but their attack was pushed back by security forces and members of the group suffered heavy losses, like reported by afghanistantimes.af.

The attacks were carried out against Zherai, Dand and Marof districts of Kandahar Province on Wednesday in which hundreds of Taliban fighters were involved.

“During the counter attack, 85 Taliban fighters were killed and 18 were wounded” the Ministry of Defense said in a short statement.

Several vehicles and motorcycles of the militants were also seized and a large amount of their weapons and ammunition were destroyed, it said.

The attack is considered the second largest armed attack by the group in the province in the past two months.

Taliban attacks have increased in recent few months in the country particularly in the south.

Due to such attacks 134 civilians have been killed and another 342 civilians were injured in the past one month, according to the Ministry of Interior.

Armed violence is on rise throughout the country in recent few months despite the fact that Afghan were expecting a ceasefire or at least a significant reduction in violence with the start of the intra-Afghan talks.

But during the past nearly three months of negotiations the government and Taliban representatives have only agreed on rules and procedures for the talks. The two sides have now tasked working committees to prepare a draft of the agenda of the talks, in which ceasefire is expected to be one of the top topics on the agenda.

France expects Turkey to withdraw Syrian mercenaries recruited for Azerbaijan during the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh, a senior French official visiting Armenia said according to massispost.com.

“French President Emmanuel Macron was the first to call things what they are and state that Turkey transported Syrian mercenaries from the Turkish city of Gaziantep to Nagorno-Karabakh,” Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne, a secretary of state at the French Foreign Ministry, told a news conference in Yerevan held at the end of his two-day visit.

“France expects concrete actions from Turkey so that Turkey removes the mercenaries from the region,” he said. “Paris is going to discuss with its European partners sanctions against Turkey.”

France has been pressing the European Union to impose the sanctions because of Turkish actions in the eastern Mediterranean where Turkey and EU members Greece and Cyprus are locked in a dispute over natural gas rights. Relations between Ankara and Paris have been increasingly tense in recent months.

Macron accused Turkey of recruiting jihadist fighters from Syria for the Azerbaijani army shortly after the outbreak of large-scale hostilities in and around Karabakh on September 27.

Russia also expressed serious concern in the following weeks about the deployment of “terrorists and mercenaries” from Syria and Libya in the Karabakh conflict zone. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his foreign and defense ministers repeatedly raised the matter with their Turkish counterparts.

Multiple reports by Western media quoted members of Islamist rebel groups in areas of northern Syria under Turkish control as saying in late September and October that they are deploying to Azerbaijan in coordination with the Turkish government. Armenia has portrayed those reports as further proof of Turkey’s direct involvement in the war stopped by a Russian-brokered ceasefire on November 10.

Karabakh army has captured two Syrian Jihadist fighters during the fighting. Both men are now prosecuted in Armenia on relevant charges.

A car bombing in Afghanistan’s central province of Ghazni killed at least 30 Afghan security force members on Sunday, officials said. It is said that casualties could increase given the intensity and location of the blast, like reported by thewire.in.

Baz Mohammad Hemat, director of the provincial hospital in Ghazni, said 30 bodies and 24 injured people had been transported there. “All of the victims are security personnel,” he said.

The blast targeted a compound of the public protection force, a wing of the Afghan security forces, local officials said. It damaged civilian residences around the compound and there could be more casualties from there.

Interior ministry spokesman, Tariq Arian, confirmed that there had been a car bomb blast but did not provide further information on the target or possible casualties.

No one has claimed responsibility for the attack.

The Ministry of Interior Affairs released a list of 70 Taliban commanders killed in Afghanistan’s war-torn provinces of Helmand and Kandahar in operations carried out by Afghan forces in response to attacks by the group that started more than a month ago, reported TOLO News.

Presenting the list to reporters, Interior Affairs Ministry’s spokesman Tariq Arian also said that 152 Pakistani fighters were killed in Helmand province.

According to the ministry, 20 of the Taliban commanders belonged from various parts of Helmand and were leading groups of 45-100 members.

Rahmatullah, Habibullah, Mawlawi Musa Jan, Qari Mohammad, Rohullah, Mullah Nek Mohammad, Atiqullah, Mullah Sardar, Mullah Anargul, Wali Mohammad, Mullah Idris, Mullah Samad, Sharifullah, Mullah Mohammad Isa and Mullah Amanullah are the Taliban commanders killed in Helmand, according to the data.

The list also described that 10 commanders killed in Helmand came from Uruzgan, Kandahar and Ghazni to help their fighters in Helmand.

These 10 commanders include Mullah Mohibullah, Mullah Shah Wali, Mullah Ishaq, Abdul Rahman, Mullah Payenda, Mullah Baridad, Mullah Juma Gul, Mullah Mustafa, Mullah Amanullah, Mullah Khairkhwah, Mullah Toryalai, Ejaz-Ul-Haq, and Badri Janan.

Meanwhile, the data showed 40 commanders that were killed in Kandahar, which include Mawlawi Munir, Mullah Saifuddin, Mullah Sazuddin, Qari Labib, Mullah Talib, Mullah Sediq, Abdul Latif, Isa Mohammad, Noorullah, Ainuddin, Musa, Abdul Waris, Mullah Abdullah, Sardar Mohammad among others reported TOLO News.

At least 30 Taliban commanders were wounded in Helmand clashes, Arian said, adding that Taliban attacks were repelled by Afghan forces in Helmand, Kandahar, and other southern provinces under the active defense framework.

Although clashes are ongoing in southern provinces, Arian said that the Taliban has been defeated in the provinces.

Arian said that at least 134 civilians were killed and 289 more were wounded in Taliban attacks in the last 25 days.

At least 12 security force members were killed in an attack by the Taliban on Bala Hisar military base in Imam Sahib district in the northern province of Kunduz on Thursday night, sources said according to tolonews.com.

The sources added that 11 security force members were wounded in the attack.

Meanwhile, two police force members were killed when they were on their way to the army base to help the forces when their vehicle hit a roadside bomb in which two others were wounded, the sources said.

The military base, which is a key base in the northern province, fell to the Taliban for some hours but was retaken by the security forces, the sources said.

The sources said that at least 10 Taliban members were killed or wounded in the attack, but the Taliban has not commented on the incident.

This comes as a military base was targeted by a car bomb attack in Paghman district, Kabul province, on Friday morning, killing two security force members and wounding two others.

Violence remains high in the country in recent weeks despite efforts to start peace negotiations in Doha.

A car bomb has exploded in Afghanistan’s second-largest city, Kandahar, leading to eight deaths and 38 injured civilians.

The explosion occurred late on Sunday night, in Kandahar’s Maiwand district. Among those killed were two women and a child, reports say.

According to a source at Mirwais Hospital in Kandahar, the 38 wounded, including 20 security personnel, have been transferred to the hospital.

In recent days, heavy clashes between the Afghan National Security and other groups have been underway in the Arghandab district of southern Kandahar province.

The clashes broke out five days ago after a large number of insurgents attacked dozens of security outposts in Arghandab, Panjwai, and Zherai districts, AVA Press reported.

Security officials stated that dozens of Taliban militants have been killed in skirmishes but they did not provide details about casualties among the Afghan forces.

Jamal Nasir Barikzai, a spokesman for Kandahar police told Ariana News that at least 75 Taliban fighters have been killed in these districts so far.

Meanwhile, the clashes have also displaced dozens of families. They stated that they have left everything behind and there is no hope of returning as “our houses and gardens are being used as strongholds.”

Sergey Naryshkin, Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, has spokesn about the sources of information on the presence of militants from Syria in the hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh, RIA Novosti reports.

“We receive this data from a number of countries, from various sources and from our various partners, partner services in the Middle East,” Naryshkin said in an interview with Dmitry Kiselev, director general of the Rossiya Segodnya news agency.

He stressed that the Intelligence Service “has accurate information about the participation of militants from Syria in Karabakh.”

He further noted that Turkey’s intelligence is involved in the events in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“The Foreign Intelligence Service fells and sees separate elements of this work,” Naryshkin stated.

Afghanistan declared a national day of mourning Tuesday to honor the 22 people killed in a horrific attack a day earlier on Kabul University, which was claimed by the Islamic State group. Most of those killed were students and another 22 people were injured, some of them critically like reported by dailymail.co.uk.

Monday’s brutal, hours-long assault was the second attack on an educational institution in the Afghan capital in as many weeks amid a soaring rise in violence and chaos across Afghanistan, even as Taliban insurgents and government negotiators hold peace talks in the Gulf state of Qatar.

The Islamic State affiliate also claimed the earlier attack on Oct. 24 that killed 24 young students. The attack occurred in the mostly Shiite neighborhood of Dasht-e-Barchi.

The IS affiliate has declared war on the country’s minority Shiites and has claimed a number of vicious attacks since emerging in eastern Afghanistan in 2014.

Outside Kabul University Tuesday a small group of demonstrators gathered demanding a cease-fire and urging the government to withdraw from the peace talks until a permanent end to hostilities is declared. Some held signs reading “why are you killing us?”

The Islamic State is not part of peace talks and despite their claims of responsibility, the government has blamed Taliban for the attacks. Taliban, like the Afghan security forces, are fighting the Islamic State and under an agreement signed with the U.S., the Taliban have committed to fighting militancy, specifically the Islamic State.

The Taliban, which condemned the attack on the university and denied involvement within hours of its start, have refused to declare a cease-fire saying it would be part of the negotiations.

But if not a cease-fire, then a significant reduction in violence has taken on increasing importance as Washington’s peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad on Monday made a surprise visit to Pakistan urging Islamabad to urge the insurgent movement to reduce violence.

Pakistan has been critical in pushing Taliban into talks. Even as the Islamic insurgent group ousted by the U.S.-led coalition in 2001 maintains its political office in Doha, where talks are being held, its leadership councils are located in Pakistan.

Khalilzad brokered a peace pact with the Taliban that was signed in February and seen at the time as the country’s best chance at peace in more than 40 years of war. The peace agreement which is to allow U.S. and NATO troops withdraw from Afghanistan after 19 years, it also paved the way for the peace talks currently underway.

In a series of tweets Tuesday Khalilzad condemned the attack but also warned “this barbaric attack is NOT an opportunity for the government and the Taliban to score points against each other. There is a common enemy here.”

Family members of the victims mourned their loved ones on local TV and called for the government to investigate security lapses.

Armenia has accused Turkey and Azerbaijan of seeking to give the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh an inter-religious character by bringing in jihadists from the Middle East to fight there.

In a statement released on November 1 Armenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that at least two mercenaries from Syria had been captured by Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian defense army during the fighting with Azerbaijan in the region.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto ethnic Armenian authorities showed videos of two men whom said they had been recruited in Syria by Turkey to fight for Azerbaijan for a monthly pay of $2,000. One of them said they were also promised an extra payment for each “beheaded infidel.”

“The transfer of jihadists to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone reveals the intentions of the Turkish-Azerbaijani leadership to give the conflict an inter-religious character,” Armenia’s ministry said.

“This is a completely new manifestation of the expansion of terrorism, when foreign terrorist fighters and jihadists from the Middle East have been deployed to the conflict zone in the OSCE area; it is a serious threat to international and regional security and stability,” the statement added, stressing that “Armenia will continue to undertake consistent steps in the fight against international terrorism, in that regard cooperating with all interested partners.”

Russia, France, the United States, Iran and other countries and international organizations have also voiced their concern about credible reports of Syrian mercenaries being involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh fighting.

Azerbaijan and Turkey have denied recruiting any mercenaries to fight in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, instead accusing Armenia of having PKK (Kurdish Workers’ Party) fighters and other mercenaries fighting on its side, a claim discarded by Yerevan as groundless.

Yerevan’s arguments on the presence of mercenaries on the Azerbaijani side have also been supported by multiple investigative reports by Western journalists, some of which alleged that Turkey began recruiting jihadist fighters to be later deployed in Azerbaijan as early as July.

In an interview with RFE/RL’s Armenian Service (Azatutyun) last month one such journalist, Lindsey Snell, estimated that the number of Syrian mercenaries fighting for Azerbaijan at one point was around 2,000.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based human rights organization, at least 217 Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries have been killed in the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh.