The present-day Afghanistan is still a center of instability and insecurity. Expansion of military operations by the Taliban and Daesh groups to western and northern parts of Afghanistan indicates the failure of the country’s reconstruction effort and state building project and proves vulnerability of security state of Afghanistan. It is also especially the sign of a grave human security crisis in the country, like reported by eurasiareview.com. The results of this situation at domestic levels have been nothing but continuation of immigration crisis, persistent corruption and inefficiency of state institutions, in addition to unprecedented increase in plantation and production of illicit drugs.

However, this is not the whole story. Interconnection among domestic, regional and international aspects of the crisis in Afghanistan is such that it can rapidly jeopardize all security complexes in West Asia and even at international level on a large scale. This interconnection and negative impact of the situation in Afghanistan was for a short time overshadowed by the surge of extremist terrorism and emergence of Daesh in Iraq and Syria. As a result of that situation, Afghanistan was somehow drive out of the focus of attention of both politicians and analysts. However, now that the so-called Daesh caliphate is in decline in Iraq and Syria, the issue of Afghanistan has once again regained its determining importance in shaping regional and international security arrangements. Therefore, major questions that arise here are: What impact can the ongoing developments in Afghanistan have on periphery of the country and international security? Will Afghanistan move toward more stability in the post-Daesh era, or will it turn into a center for reproduction of new forms of sectarian terrorism? And finally, what should be the position and responsibility of other governments involved in the issue of Afghanistan?

Domestic and regional dimensions of insecurity in Afghanistan

According to reports released by the majority of analysts and international institutions, a sharp increase in activities of the Taliban and Daesh groups in 2017 has led to increased insecurity in Afghanistan in addition to soaring civilian casualties and reduced control of the central government on border provinces. As a result, in addition to southern provinces, the Taliban militants are now trying to expand their control over the northern parts of the country and, along with the Haqqani network, are considered as the main causes of insecurity in the country. Therefore, in spite of the fact that Hekmatyar’s group has already joined the peace process in the country, no clear prospect is currently on the horizon for improvement of the existing situation in Afghanistan. One reason for the current situation is the increased activities of Daesh in this South Asian country. Up to a year ago, no serious attention was paid to gradual infiltration of Daesh into Afghanistan, which has been called Wilayat Khurasan by this terrorist group. However, the power void in the country, on the one hand, and the long history of presence and communications among various groups of extremist terrorists on the two sides of the Durand Line, on the other hand, have made Afghanistan a totally attractive location for members of these extremist groups. We must especially bear in mind that a group of Daesh members come from extremists in Central Asia and China’s Xinjiang province, who have always used Afghanistan both as a passage and as a place for training and logistics.

Some analysts believe that given the background of Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan and the social status that the group enjoys in the country, chances for Daesh to be able to establish its standing in Afghanistan are infinitesimal, because the Taliban group has proved in the past that it is not willing to lose its territory even at the cost of bloody conflicts with rivals. However, we must not forget that sectarian terrorism in Iraq and Syria managed to thrive despite all primary expectations and predictions by taking advantage of the power void and existing discontent among people in those countries. Of course, hefty financial aid pouring in from outside of those countries was also a very effective factor in growth of such groups. In the meantime, the Taliban lacks its past power and consolidation as a result of which it is quite possible for some disgruntled members of the group to joint Daesh. Under these conditions, the two groups’ mutual need to each other in order to fight a common enemy may lay the ground for tactical and regional cooperation between them despite all their differences and internal rivalries. Reports released so far about the cooperation between Daesh and the Taliban for seizing the strategic district of Mirza Olang in Afghanistan’s Sar-e Pol province in August further corroborate this possibility.

As a result, the present circumstances in Afghanistan can be compared to the situation in Iraq during 2010-14, and under these circumstances, the Taliban and Daesh are expected to take the following steps separately or in cooperation with each other:

• Spreading terrorism through boisterous operations in provincial centers and other populous areas;
• Showing off their power by carrying out operations in important districts both in cities and out of cities against civilians, military bases as well as political and diplomatic centers, examples of which included operations in Wazir Akbar Khan district of Kabul, the attack on a military base in the city of Mazar-i-Sharif, and recent operations in Mirza Olang district;
• Fanning the flames of sectarian and religious war by conducting multiple operations against people holding religious rituals as well as against Iran’s offices in that country and Central Asia;
• Conquering land on the margins of cities and major provinces in order to establish their bases and leaders and also to mount pressure on the central government. Of course, they are currently not able to control big and populous cities and, therefore, conquering entire cities will not be on their agenda.

Responsibility of regional and international powers in Afghanistan

The Taliban and Daesh are expanding their activities at a time that the US-led international coalition’s forces have been proven inefficient and without initiative and, in practice, have no clear-cut strategy in the war-stricken country. This comes despite promises the coalition forces have given to maintain stability and security in Afghanistan and in spite of the fact that they have been paying material and human costs of their efforts.

On the other hand, existence of serious doubts and differences within Trump’s administration about the United States’ new strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan has created new problems. This comes despite the fact that when Trump’s administration was inaugurated, officials in Afghanistan were highly optimistic because of the higher attention that the United States showed in their country’s problems. That optimism was further increased due to presence of such people as General Thomas F. Metz, Director of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Mike Pompeo, and General Herbert Raymond McMaster in Trump’s administration.

However, since Trump’s foreign policy is mostly mercantilist in nature, it is not likely that Afghanistan will have a very important position in that policy due to its high costs and low benefits for the United States. This is especially true under conditions when the United States lacks a grand strategy for West Asia region and, due to this reason, nobody can expect any special change to take place in Washington’s policies and actions in this regard.

Opportunities for international cooperation against the common threat posed by the Taliban and Daesh

Under these conditions, it seems that the country is in for seeing a new surge in instability and insecurity. The two main factors that make this very probable include the high possibility of a shift in position and deployment of some Takfiri terrorists from Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan, on the one hand, and the weakness of the Afghan government combined with lack of serious determination to fight terrorists on the part of the US-led coalition and NATO forces, on the other hand. Of course, this issue can, per se, be considered as a serious threat at all three domestic, regional and international levels, but at the same time, it can be viewed as an opportunity as well because, like what happened in 2002, it can provide grounds for more cooperation and coordination among effective regional and international actors in Afghanistan.

In the meantime, the Islamic Republic of Iran enjoys remarkable capabilities and abilities for fighting against extremism and Daesh. Therefore, if big powers avoid taking a unilateral approach in this regard, Iran can play a very constructive and positive role. One of the main reasons behind inadequacy of efforts made in the past decade to build security in and reconstruct Afghanistan has been ignoring the role of regional powers. Therefore, a feeling of common threat from extremist terrorism in Afghanistan by all regional and global powers can be taken as a basis for new cooperation, which may be the last chance for this country and the entire region to come up with new security arrangements on the basis of consensus and maximum cooperation among influential actors.

The US Ambassador to Russia John Tefft has provided explanations regarding the new US strategy in Afghanistan at a meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported according to tolonews.com.

In a statement issued by the ministry, the Russian side outlined a number of issues that needed to be specified with regard to both the parameters and the modality of the US military presence in Afghanistan.

It was noted that the new strategy was aimed at solving the Afghan problem by force and that it was consonant with the Obama administration’s “prescriptions, which, as is common knowledge, had not led to any positive results,” the statement read.

The statement indicated that the Russian side “focused on the lack of transparency in the US military actions, something that evoked justified concern in Russia and other regional partners.”

It was stressed that Moscow did not share Washington’s pressure policy directed at certain states in the region, and called for “equitable interaction and coordination of approaches to the Afghan settlement with regard for the interests of all states in the region without exception.”

“The strategy’s obvious shortcomings are that it does not pose the objective to fight the Afghan drug threat and lacks a comprehensive approach to counteracting the expansion of ISIS (Daesh) influence in Afghanistan,” read the statement.

The Russian Foreign Ministry added that, during the meeting, the two sides “discussed the opportunities for cooperation between Russia and the US on Afghanistan in bilateral and multilateral formats.”

The Taliban insurgents have executed two important leaders of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria Khorasan in Nangarhar province, like reported by khaama.com.

According to reports, the two local ISIS leaders were initially arrested by the Taliban insurgents and were executed on charges of killing civilians and Taliban fighters.

The provincial government in Nangarhar also confirmed the execution of the two ISIS leaders.

A statement by the media department of Nangarhar government said the two ISIS leaders were executed in the restive Bati Kot district.

The statement further added one of the slain ISIS leaders was identified as Qadir who was in charge of a group of fifty fighters and was arrested from Bati Kot district where he was executed shortly after his apprehension.

The other ISIS leader detained and executed by the Taliban insurgents has been identified as commander Nasir who was arrested from Momand Dara area.

According to Nangarhar government, the two ISIS leaders were involved in the killing of dozens of the local residents and Taliban insurgents.

The anti-government armed militant groups including the Taliban and ISIS group have not commented regarding the report so far.

Australia has offered to mirror its support role in Iraq and provide similar assistance and training for troops in the Philippines as they battle an Islamic State expansion in the country’s south, like reported by sbs.com.au

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop says she made the offer of additional assistance to the Philippines when she met with President Rodrigo Duterte in Manila earlier this month.

She said the Turnbull government would not be committing troops to engage in combat roles on the ground.

“We would be ready to support the Philippines in the same way we are supporting Iraq in advising, assisting and training,” Ms Bishop told reporters in Canberra.

“We’ve offered to assist in any way that might add to the likelihood of defeating this scourge in southern Philippines.”

Two Australian surveillance planes have already been assisting the Philippines military in Marawi.

The foreign minister said Mr Duterte has not yet responded to the offer or identified what support is required.

Australia joins a host of other nations offering support including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the United States over concerns about the presence of Islamic State militants in civilian parts of Marawi.

“The fact that ISIS now has a presence in southern Philippines is deeply concerning, not only for the Philippines but for the region,” she said.

“It’s a very dangerous fight but Australia has already offered, and is supplying support to Philippines, and we stand ready to assist should they require more, as does the United States.”

Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the conflict shows the fight against terrorism is right here in our region.

“It is absolutely in our national interest and in the interest of regional security for this threat and this insurrection to be confronted and defeated,” Ms Wong said on ABC Radio.

“Obviously Australia should continue to assist in the ways that the Philippines government wishes us to because it’s in our national interest to do so.”

Commando forces launched deadly attacks on Taliban strongholds in Kunduz province, which killed and wounded tens of insurgents.

According to reports, tens of commando forces with cooperation of air forces carried out attacks on Taliban hideouts in Dasht-e-Archi, Chardara, Imam Sahib Districts and suburb of Kunduz city.

Ahmad Jaweed Salim spokesman of commando forces told BNA, tens of armed bombers affiliated Taliban group were killed and number of others have been injured.

He said, six senior commanders of Taliban were also among the dead.

Meanwhile, the security official of Kunduz province praised the security forces attacks on Taliban hideouts and called it useful in betterment of security and ensuring security in the province.

At least 13 people were killed when a suicide bomb exploded in Afghanistan’s southern Helmand province on Sunday evening, officials said according to 1tvnews.af.

Nineteen more were wounded in the attack which happened in Dopul area of Nawa district.

Omar Zwak, a spokesman for provincial governor, said that the attack targeted a military vehicle. He said that the deaths included both soldiers and civilians, while the injured were all civilians.

Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.

Nawa district was in control of the insurgents for nine months until July when officials recaptured the district. However, there has been continued fighting in the area since.

The attack in Helmand comes a week after another Taliban suicide car bomb killed five and injured 38 more in the provincial capital city Lashkargah.

President Abdul Hamid yesterday reiterated the country’s zero tolerance policy against terrorism and militancy as outgoing Japanese Ambassador Masato Watanabe called on him at Bangabhaban, like reported by thedailystar.net.

Referring to the terror attack at Gulshan Holey Artisan Bakery where some Japanese nationals were killed, the president expressed his profound grief at the loss of lives, said President’s Press Secretary M Joynal Abedin quoted him as telling the envoy.

The president expressed satisfaction over the existing excellent bilateral relations between Bangladesh and Japan, saying, “Since the great Liberation War of Bangladesh in 1971, Japan has been a tested friend of Bangladesh and also an important development partner.”

He congratulated the Japanese ambassador on completion of his successful tenure in Bangladesh and recalled with gratitude the contribution of Japan to Bangladesh’s Liberation War and recognising independent Bangladesh on February 10, 1972.

“The bilateral relation between Bangladesh and Japan is being enhanced day by day,” the president observed, seeking more Japanese investments in Bangladesh.

Abdul Hamid lauded different development projects of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica), which is playing a very positive role to accelerate the country’s socio-economic progress.

He expressed his content over the bilateral relation with Japan and expected it to be boosted further in the near future.

The ambassador expressed his gratitude to the president for extending all-out cooperation in discharging his duties in Dhaka and also expressed satisfaction over the law and order and other security arrangements in Bangladesh.

Watanabe also thanked the government for hosting the 136th Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) conference successfully and assured the president of providing continued supports to Bangladesh in the days ahead.

He also expressed his sympathy over the losses and damage caused by the recent floods at some parts of Bangladesh.

As the Islamic State loses caliphate territory in Iraq and Syria, a new video released by the terror group touts the growth of operations in the Philippines and the destruction jihadists unleashed on a Catholic church in Marawi, like reported by pjmedia.com .

Muslim fighters loyal to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi began clashing with government forces in the city on Mindanao in the southern Philippines in May, eager to carve out a province for ISIS. The “Inside the Khilafah” video brags about how jihadists freed inmates from the local jail and attacked local churches, and called Marawi “a reward for holding firmly to the rope of Allah.”

The English-speaking narrator with an American accent, who has narrated other videos for ISIS’ Al-Hayat Media Center, said the occupation took root in Marawi because the Philippine government tried to “subjugate the Muslims” and “expel them from the land.” Like ISIS recruitment and operations in their shrinking home-base caliphate, the video also shows child soldiers fighting with the jihadists.

ISIS re-ups raw footage first released in June showing jihadists rampaging through a church, first toppling a large crucifix and stomping on it. They also toppled and smashed statues of Jesus, Mary and saints, tore up photos of Pope Francis and Pope Benedict XVI and set fire to the parish.

“After all their efforts it would be the religion of the cross that would be broken,” the narrator states. “The crusaders’ enmity toward the Muslims only served to embolden a generation of youth.”

One of the jihadists, vowing that “we will make more revenge,” holds aloft a photo of Pope Francis. “We will be in Rome, inshallah,” he says repeatedly before pointing his gun at the pontiff’s picture.

The narrator says that Philippine strongman Rodrigo Duterte, who is a Mindanaoan,”ran to his masters, the defenders of the cross, America, along with their regional guard dog Australia, and begged them for help, and despite having been previously insulted by Duterte, they were quick to put their differences aside.”