War has never been alien to Afghanistan, a country which has been faced with over three decades of foreign led as well as internal civil war since the last quarter of the 20 ^th century. The civil war period, in the aftermath of Russian (Former USSR) withdrawal saw a new force, the Taliban, emerging out as the victor until uprooted by a multinational coalition in 2001.

In the last 14 years of a US led coalition presence in Afghanistan, the Taliban has shown exceptional strategic ability and resilience in not only surviving, but controlling vast stretches of land across Afghanistan. Some analyst have declared the Taliban as triumphant for successfully sustaining their presence, inflicting losses on the Afghan and US troops, as well as finding inroads into a large degree of Afghan society. The latter aspect, referring to the appeal to Afghan society, is more credited to the unpopular foreign invasion aftermaths, rampant corruption, worsening law and order, a lack of inclusive state institution, and above all the lack of a promising future which remains a far off dream even after years of experiments by the US led coalition. However, winning a war some 12,000 km away from the homeland, with one of the most challenging terrains and environment is itself an impossible task to start with, and this is where the coalition has found itself. To add to the miseries, the failure to establish an appealing, loyal and Afghan-centric leadership and institution have worsened the equation for those who envisioned a free, democratic and peaceful Afghanistan in 2001.

Come 2016, the scope of the debate over the Afghan future is shifting in terms of stakeholders and the alliances. The world has awaken to the reality of DEASH or ISIS, their rise in Iraq and Syria, the spree of brutalities which has even made former global terrorist groups like al Qaeda disown them. ISIS has overshadowed all other terror groups from the Middle East to Europe, and it is no secret that their presence is gaining strength in Afghanistan, and is high on their policy sphere. The Taliban has been the name that everyone familiar with the insurgency and war in Afghanistan remembered until 2015. The smoke screen that covers its structure, its numbers, its leadership (a vague picture of Mullah Omar is all we have) and its capability has added more weight to the Taliban. It will be a sweeping statement, but quite comprehensive to say that from 2001-2015, the Afghan insurgency had belonged to them.

In view of the vacuum that exists between the lack of an effective governing structure for Afghanistan, the Taliban de facto authority, and the rift witnessed over succession of Mullah Mansoor as the new Chief, the country presents itself as the perfect breeding ground for the ISIS or its affiliates. 2015 saw notable activities in this direction, with the US targeting the ISIS local leadership in aerial strikes, while the Taliban was disowning the killing of captives by ISIS, in its signature style. In prevailing circumstances, ISIS may succeed in reaching to a certain segment of Afghans, presumably the youth but as seen in Syria and Iraq, this appeal is again centric to foreign fighters. Afghanistan has already seen its fair share of foreign radicals, and the results will certainly deter them from opening their arms to them. However, it is to be taken in consideration that at present a lot of fighters from Central Asian countries and other regions are engaged in insurgency, both in Afghanistan and in its neighboring countries, and these battle hardened fighters can rise to extend their control on regions now under Taliban control. These fighters may be foreign in terms of roots, but for decades they have fought along with the Taliban and its opposing groups, making them a tough enemy for the Taliban.

The second element of ISIS rise may rest upon the seasoned warlords, used by various countries from time to time to fight Taliban. Their presence is limited at present, but the rivalry to the Taliban and the ineffectiveness of the Afghan government as well as security apparatus can make them and their militia a top choice for ISIS. In any case, ISIS rise against the Taliban will be a “Zero-Sum Game” challenging the unconfirmed status quo in Afghanistan, where areas of priorities have been marked between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Long before the US invasion, Afghanistan has been the proxy theater for many powers and so it remains till this date. The potentials of ISIS just like the Taliban on their side will be too attractive to ignore for numerous regional and international actors. Sectarianism has been a fault line in Afghanistan, and as witnessed in Middle East the same cracks can pitch the entire population of Afghanistan against each other.

The frustration in the Afghan regime, for its inability to conquer the Taliban may lead certain segments to kill an enemy with an equal threat, however with a new face. The real question will come over US led coalition to decide its companion or adversary in this changing game.

As of 2015, the US has struck few valuable targets associated with ISIS, while talks with the Taliban have also progress to some extent. At present, the best possible answer to the question of the Afghan future is what the US is pursuing (at least in theory), a Taliban inclusive Afghan government with guaranteed peace and adherence to international norms. A regional role of China, Pakistan and others towards peace talks is the right way to progress with the UN as the facilitator to the sustained road to peace.

Any experimentation with a counter force by stakeholders involved in Afghanistan can, to an alarming extent destabilize the entire region, with Afghanistan its epic center. It is time that all actors learn the due lesson from cases like Syria, where settling old scores has blackened the future of many generations to come.

opednews.com

Whether Daesh or ISIS has any sort of presence in Pakistan has lately triggered a debate in government circles with some saying that the terror outfit does not exist while others harbouring the quite opposite point of view. There has been a series of statements and counter statements from the ministers, foreign office and the intelligence agencies about the presence or non-presence of the outfit, which not only caused confusion but also created fear and panic amongst the people.

Starting with the statement of Director General Intelligence Bureau Aftab Sultan who, while briefing the Senate’s standing committee the other day, said a Daesh network has been busted. The DG intelligence bureau went on to say that hundreds of people are also leaving the country to join the ISIS in Syria. Provincial Law Minister Rana Sanaullah has repeatedly made a similar admission about the presence of Daesh in Punjab.

At the weekly news briefing on Thursday, the new Foreign Office Spokesperson Nafees Zakria, however, rebutted reports about the presence of terror outfit. The latest and more categorical statement has come from Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, who on Saturday, said that the Arab outfit does not exist on Pakistani soil and that other terror groups, which are perpetrating acts of terrorism against the state are using the name of Daesh to cause death and destruction in the country.

In our view also, the statement of the interior minister appears to be more apt and pertinent as the local terror groups might be faking affiliation with the Daesh for various reasons and the most obvious one is to terrorise the people. With the conflicting statements of relevant officials, these groups might have been able to achieve the objective of creating fear and panic amongst the people. While the outside world already see Pakistan as a country providing sanctuaries to terrorists, the statements and reports on presence of Daesh has further tarnished the country’s image abroad.

Therefore, extra care should be taken while making announcements on such sensitive issues particularly relating to terrorism. We, therefore, would urge the government to devise a proper system in which only authorised spokespersons, as is the world practice, are liable to make statements pertaining to their respective areas.

pakobserver.net

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) on Monday claimed 54 militants, including 42 Daesh or so-called Islamic State (IS) insurgents, have been killed in security operations over the past 24 hours in different parts of the country.

Another five militants were injured and seven more detained during the operations, the MoD said in a statement.

Recently Afghan security and defence forces launched an operation codenamed “Shaheen-18” to subdue militants in Achin district of eastern Nangarhar province, the statement said.

Up to 42 Daesh fighters, including some group leaders, were killed and five others were injured and an explosives-laden car was destroyed during the offensive, it added.

The Afghan National Army (ANA) personnel also killed a dozen of militants and seized some weapons and ammunition during separate operations in Sabari district of Khost province, Khoshamand district of Paktia province, Barmal and Gomal districts of Paktika province and Maiwand district of Kandahar province, the statement said.

Five ANA personnel also lost their lives during the operations, the statement concluded.

pajhwok.com

Malaysia says it is conducting background checks on all incoming Syrian refugees to ensure they are not involved with any Daesh-linked groups, while also guaranteeing them a peaceful stay.

Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi told reporters in capital Kuala Lumpur on Sunday that so far the checks had not detected any links to the terror group.

“The screening would be carried out through the Advance Passenger Screening System with the cooperation of Interpol and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees [UNHCR],” he said.

To date, the country has accepted five Syrian refugees families. Prime Minister Najib Razak told the United Nations in October that Malaysia would open its doors to 3,000 Syrian migrants over the next three years to help with the ongoing refugee crisis.

“The families were brought here temporarily to live in Malaysia for a certain period of time before returning to their homeland, once Syria is peaceful,” Hamidi said.

He underlined that although the aim of the security checks is to guarantee Malaysia’s safety and security, it was also to allow refugees to temporarily carry on with their lives.

“We prioritize families of students who are already studying here, those who are working here and also Syrian professionals like doctors and engineers working here in Malaysia,” he added.

He requested that Malaysians be kind-hearted to their Syrian guests, offering them the same assistance rendered to those fleeing conflict in Bosnia Herzegovina in the 1990s.

Last month, Malaysia’s police force said it had arrested 82 people with links to Daesh — 73 of them Malaysians — in 2015 alone.

More than 10 Malaysians, including at least 14 women, have been identified as fleeing Malaysia to join Daesh movements in Iraq and Syria using neighboring countries as transit points.

As of December last year, seven had returned home to arrest.

albawaba.com

At least ten separatist insurgents were killed and 12 others arrested in an operation by paramilitary troops in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Baluchistan, officials said Saturday. The incident occurred in Sangan area of Kahlu district, some 180 kilometers southeast of the provincial capital Quetta.

Baluchistan, Pakistan’s largest but least developed and most sparsely populated province, has been wrecked for decades by a separatist insurgency that was revived in 2004.

The separatists believe that locals do not receive a fair share of the province’s energy and mineral wealth, while rights groups accuse the government of extra judicial detentions and the killing of activists.

The province is also blighted by religious extremists, banditry and sectarian violence between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.

manilatimes.net

At least seven people have died in a firefight between Indian government troops and rebels in the Kashmir region. The battle came after a tip-off brought soldiers to a village to look for rebels.

Five suspected rebels and two Indian soldiers were killed in the gun battle in Indian-administered Kashmir, Indian army officials said on Saturday.

The 16-hour exchange of fire began of Friday in the border village of Marsari, 130 kilometers (80 miles) northwest of the Himalayan region’s main city of Srinigar.

Government forces cordoned off a village in northern Kupwara region after they received a tip-off that militants were hiding there, army spokesman Col. Nitin Joshi said.

The soldiers closed in on an apparently abandoned house which the rebels were thought to be using as a base. Militants holed up inside were then said to have opened fire and intermittent gunfire continued through the night into Saturday.

India accuses Pakistan of training and arming the rebels. Islamabad strongly denies the accusation but says the rebels are freedom fighters.

Kashmir has been divided since the end of British rule in 1947 along a heavily militarized Line of Control, which is close to the scene of the latest fighting. India and Pakistan have fought three wars over the region since independence.

More than a dozen rebel groups operated in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir, which has a Muslim majority population. The militants have been fighting for independence from Hindu-majority India or merged with Muslim-majority Pakistan, since an insurgency that has claimed an estimated 44,000 lives erupted in 1989.

dw.com

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states on Friday reiterated commitments to continue its support from the Afghan government and provide financial assistance to its security forces until the end of 2020.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this to reporters after the end of the military organization’s defence ministers meeting in Brussels, the capital of Belgium.

Afghanistan, however, was not the main point of discussion, but the NATO chief said that member states had exchanged their views about situation in Afghanistan during the meeting.

Afghan security forces required amount $4 billion annually for its expenditures which the NATO had pledged to provide it in their earlier conferences held in Chicago in 2012.

According to Stoltenberg they evaluated the performance of Afghan security forces and supported the NATO Resolute Support (RS) mission in Afghanistan.

“The NATO member states had agreed to continue helping Afghan security forces in three areas of training, advising and equipments because these three elements were important for the stability of Afghanistan,” he said.

The top NATO official said that they would continue looking at the situations in Afghanistan and would work closely with Afghan security forces until the country got stabilised.

“Afghan security forces have enhanced their abilities as they were in charge of the entire country’s security affairs. They have made positive development and proved that they were fully capable of responding to the Taliban and other insurgents’ attacks, adding the there were still problems in some areas which need to be improved,” said Stoltenberg.

He said militants’ attacks in 2016 may increase as President Ghani also pointed out to the issue. “We would stand by Afghan security forces knowing that situation were not good there, but We have trust on Afghan security forces that they could defend their country and improve law and order,” he said.

pajhwok.com

Six militants have been killed and 10 others wounded in a clash erupted between two rival insurgent groups in eastern Nangarhar province.

Spokesperson for the police headquarters of Nangarhar province said the clash erupted between fighters of Taliban and Daesh in Karkani area of Achin District yesterday.

According to Colonel Hazrat Hussain Mashriqiwal, five of the militants killed were loyalists of Daesh and the other one was from the Taliban group.

Seven of the 10 wounded belonged to Daesh and three to Taliban.

Nangarhar has become the battle ground of Taliban and Daesh where they have announced ‘Jihad’ against each other.

Loyalists of Daesh are former members of Taliban. They separated ways with Taliban after the Islamic State (IS) militant group which is also known by its Arabic name ‘Daesh’ came into shape.

The two sides have fought in a number of Afghan provinces but the most deadly clashes have been erupting in Nangarhar province.

Achin, Haska Meena and Bati Kot are among the districts of Nangarhar where both sides have killed/beheaded dozens of each other’s fighters.

Due to the tense situation and continued clashes between the two groups, hundreds of families have been forced to leave their homes in those areas.

khaama.com

China has pledged to reward people who report online “terrorist” content up to 100,000 yuan ($15,200) for each tipoff, after giving out 2 million yuan worth of rewards last year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Monday.

“The Internet has become a channel for terrorists to spread extremist religious ideas, provoke ethnic conflicts and advocate separatism,” Xinhua quoted an unnamed source from the Cyberspace Administration of China’s (CAC) reporting center as saying.

The person said Twitter-like microblogs and popular instant messaging services such as WeChat were among tools used by terrorists to “brainwash” young women and children, and encouraged the public to provide tipoffs via a telephone hotline.

The center’s source said the most valuable tip off could receive 100,000 yuan, Xinhua reported.

Giving unusual details of their efforts last year, the center in 2015 received reports of more than 20,000 cases, and handed out 2 million yuan worth of rewards, it said.

The CAC could not immediately be reached for comment during a public holiday in China.

In December, China called for a crackdown on online audio and video recordings used by “terrorists,” after the Islamic State purportedly released a Chinese-language song to recruit militants.

The government says it faces a serious threat from Islamist militants and separatists in energy-rich Xinjiang, where hundreds of people have been killed in violence in recent years.

Rights groups, however, doubt that a cohesive militant Islamist group exists there, saying the violence stems from popular anger at Chinese controls on religion and culture.

japantimes.co.jp

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 7 flagged the threat of sea-borne terror and piracy as two key challenges to maritime security even as he pitched for respecting freedom of navigation against the backdrop of South China sea dispute, reports The Times of India.

Modi said, the threat of sea-borne terror, of which India has been a direct victim, continues to endanger regional and global peace and stability.

satp.org