Suicide bombers hit a large demonstration by members of Afghanistan’s Hazara minority in Kabul on Saturday, killing at least 31 people and wounding 142, officials said.

The attack was quickly claimed by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isil), according to the group’s Amaq news agency,

Graphic television footage from the site of the blasts showed many dead bodies lying on the bloodied road, close to where thousands of Hazara had been demonstrating over the route of a planned multimillion dollar power line.

Health ministry officials said at least 31 dead and 150 wounded had been taken to nearby hospitals but the numbers may change. It was not immediately clear how many bombs were involved in the attack.

Emergency vehicles were at the site and wounded were being carried away.

Much of the city centre had been sealed off with stacks of shipping containers and other obstacles as the march began earlier on Saturday, and security was tight with helicopters patrolling overhead.

The blasts came some three weeks after a suicide bomber killed dozens of people in an attack on newly graduated police cadets that was claimed by the Taliban.

“Opportunist terrorists went among the protestors and set off explosions that killed and wounded a number of our countrymen including security and defence personnel,” President Ashraf Ghani said in a statement.

Saturday’s demonstrators had been demanding the 500 kV transmission line from Turkmenistan to Kabul be rerouted through two provinces with large Hazara populations, an option the government says would cost millions and delay the badly needed project by years.

The Persian-speaking Hazara, a mainly Shia group estimated to make up about 9 percent of the population, are Afghanistan’s third-largest minority but they have long suffered discrimination. Thousands were killed under Taliban rule.

The protest by a group whose leaders include members of the national unity government had put pressure on President Ashraf Ghani, who has faced growing opposition from both inside and outside the government.

It also risked exacerbating ethnic tensions with other groups and provinces the government says would have to wait up to three years for power if the route were changed.

The transmission line, intended to provide secure electricity to 10 provinces is part of the so-called TUTAP project backed by the Asia Development Bank, linking energy-rich states of Central Asia with Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Hazaras say they want the line to come through Bamyan and Wardak provinces, west of Kabul, where many Hazaras live, to ensure their power supply.

The government says the project already guarantees ample power to the two provinces and denies it disadvantages Hazara people.

Under current plans, due to be implemented by 2018, the line will pass from a converter station in the northern town of Pul-e Khumri to Kabul through the mountainous Salang pass.

An earlier plan foresaw a longer route from Pul-e Khumri through Bamyan and Wardak, but this option was dropped.

telegraph.co.uk

Two weeks ago, the Islamic State’s Furqan Foundation released its first video in over a year. Entitled “Structure of the Khilafah,” this typically overproduced piece of propaganda dives deep into how Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s organization operates.

There is much of interest in the video, but one aspect of it that stands out in particular is a portion that zooms in on the technicalities behind the Islamic State’s provinces, of which, the narrator asserts, there are 35:  19 in Iraq and Syria, and 16 elsewhere. Intriguingly, the video omits mention of Bahrain Province, which claimed an attack on a Shia mosque in Manama in October 2015, and Sahil Province, which was responsible for the attacks in Syria’s coastal cities in May 2016. It also fails to mention any of the areas from which the Islamic State has been forced to withdraw, like Idlib Province, as well as those within which it claims to be present but hasn’t established provincial affiliates in, like Somalia, Indonesia, Tunisia, and the Philippines.

The Furqan Foundation media team likely conceived of this video as a way to further fetishize the caliphate’s administrative arsenal and foster its cult of institutions. However, through it, they inadvertently draw attention to the fact that their organization’s momentum has dramatically slowed. Indeed, as Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi has commented, the video presents its viewers with a glaring reminder that there has been no real geographical expansion since June 2015, when the Caucasus Province was ratified.

There are multiple reasons for why this might be, and none of them are straightforward. What’s apparent, though, is that the Islamic State’s expansion methodology seems to have changed: No longer is a simple loyalty announcement enough to prompt the caliphal leadership to upgrade an overseas organization from fan group to formalized province.

In no context is this strategic shift more evident than in the Philippines, a place that, as I wrote in May, looked like it was next in line to host a full-fledged Islamic State province. Indeed, on operational, territorial, leadership, and media levels, the evidence has long pointed towards an impending provincial status for its pro-Baghdadi jihadists. However, this status update never came and, off the back of it, a new, non-provincial expansion paradigm seems to have emerged.

It first became truly clear that the Islamic State was stalling in the archipelago state in June, when its media team released a video produced by “The Philippines” media office, entitled “The Solid Structure.” When considered in the broad context of the caliphate’s international outreach propaganda, it is fairly typical.  Jihadist battalions are shown pledging allegiance to the Islamic State caliph, fierce battles are depicted, prominent martyrs are eulogized, and three Syrian soldiers are beheaded. It also features one of the Islamic State propagandists’ favorite tropes, foreign fighter declarations – in this case, an Indonesian, a Malaysian and a Filipino each call upon their countrymen to kill the kuffar, support the umma, and join the caliphate caravan.

Just like Furqan’s “Structure of the Khilafah,” one of the most striking things about this video is what it omits. Even though it features multiple allegiance pledges and seems to indicate that jihadists in the Philippines have the requisite infrastructure to once and for all upgrade their status, the propagandists painstakingly avoid any ambiguity as to whether or not they constitute a “province.” While it does confirm that the “soldiers of the caliphate” there now coalesce under one centrally appointed leader, Isnilon Hapilon, he is not spoken of as their wali (“provincial governor”). Instead, he is referred to as al-mujahid al-muwakkal li-qiyadat junud ad-dawla al-islamiyya f-il-filibin (“the mujahid authorized to lead the soldiers of the Islamic State in the Philippines”) and al-amir (“the emir”). What’s more, the word for province, wilaya, makes no appearance whatsoever. Instead, the Philippines is simply referred to as al-filibin, and spoken of as part of the ard al-jihad (“the land of the jihad”), not ard al-khilafa (“the land of the caliphate”).

Categorically, then, there was no announcement of, nor allusion to, a new province in this video. In any case, even if there was, it would not be ratified unless the declaration was received and accepted by al-Baghdadi or his chief spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani.

This is not to say that the Islamic State’s first Philippines-branded video doesn’t matter. On the contrary, it might actually come to be seen as a landmark moment in the strategic history of the organization, a sign that fans of the organization can now gain access to its central circle of trust without needing to be an official province. Indeed, it seems that the caliphate’s media moguls are signaling to the world that being a member of the province club is no longer a prerequisite to being one of the Islamic State’s bona fide, officially recognized (and officially celebrated) affiliates.

Perhaps, this has come about because the caliphate’s leadership is reluctant to bite off more than it can chew. Perhaps, taking into account the lackluster performances of their overseas associates, al-Baghdadi’s tacticians have calculated that the logistical costs of adopting yet another new province outweigh the symbolic benefits.

Whether or not that’s the case, there certainly seems to have been a slow-burning paradigm shift in the way the caliphate model operates, of which the peculiar status of the Islamic State’s Filipino associates is just an initial manifestation. If their example is anything to go by, the low barriers to entry that previously characterized the Islamic State’s expansion strategy could prove to be a thing of the past.

To be sure, a more discerning approach to provincialization doesn’t mean that pro-Islamic State violence in places like Bangladesh, Somalia, and Indonesia will cease. Rather, these proto-provinces might just intensify their violent efforts hoping that, one day, they will be able to curry enough favor for the green wilaya light to be given.

warontherocks.com

Up to 22 people including 18 militants have been killed as clash erupted in Qala-e-Zal district of the northern Kunduz province on Friday, an army official Brigadier Mangal Rahat said.

“A total of 18 Taliban rebels have been killed as security forces mounted pressure against militants in Qala-e-Zal district Friday morning,” Rahat told Xinhua.

Several more militants have been injured, the official asserted.

The official, however, avoided commenting on security forces casualties.

Meantime, an official on the condition of anonymity said that four security personnel have been killed and six others injured.

Clash for the control of Qala-e-Zal district along the border with Tajikistan has been continuing since Sunday and government forces have been doing their best to dislodge militants from the area.

xinhuanet.com

Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan have overrun a remote northern district after days of intense clashes with government forces, officials confirmed to local media on Thursday.

The Taliban first assaulted the district of Qala-e-Zal in Kunduz province earlier this week and both sides have since claimed to have inflicted heavy casualties.

A leading Afghan television station, Tolo, quoted provincial Governor Asadullah Omarkhil as saying that “most parts” of the district “fell to the Taliban” overnight. He added that Afghan troops have launched counteroffensives to retake control of the lost territory.

Residents in the province’s Dasht-e-Archi district have also reported heavy clashes between Afghan forces and insurgents. A Taliban spokesman said its fighters have captured the district, but Afghan officials have not yet commented on the development.

The Taliban briefly overran the provincial capital of last September. Afghan forces retook control of the city with the help of U.S. air support, but residents say groups of retreating insurgents have since entrenched themselves in surrounding districts.

A spokesman for NATO’s Resolute Support mission in Afghanistan, Col. Carol Paraniak, has dismissed concerns Kunduz will again fall to the anti-government fighters. He told VOA that Afghan forces deployed in the area are capable of addressing the situation.

“If Kunduz falls again, it is of course very serious; but, we don’t see that that could happen because the security forces, not only the army, the air force and the special forces, they have made a huge improvement.” he said.

Col. Paraniak acknowledged that Afghanistan’s National Army is benefiting from a recent decision by U.S. President Barack Obama to authorize U.S. forces to undertake combat missions targeting the Taliban.

The Taliban also made advances this week in northeastern Badakhshan province but those were short-lived. The recent fighting in northern Afghan areas follows a lull of several months.

voanews.com

The shadow provincial council chief of the Taliban group for southern Helmand province was killed during the ongoing clearance operations in this province.

The Ministry of Defense (MoD) said Mullah Hamza was among 34 militants killed during the operations conducted in Greshk, Marjah, Sangin and Nahr-e-Saraj districts.

According to a statement by MoD, the operations were conducted jointly by the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) in the past 24 hours.

The statement further added that the operations are part of the annual offensive to suppress the insurgency activities of the anti-government armed militant groups.

According to MoD, the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) were receiving close air support by the Afghan Air Force and artillery support by the Afghan army.

The anti-government armed militant groups have not commented regarding the report so far.

Helmand is among the relatively volatile provinces in southern Afghanistan where anti-government armed militant groups are actively operating and frequently carry out insurgency activities.

This comes as the Taliban group earlier claimed that the control of Sangin district in Helmand on Monday night.

abna24.com

National defense ministry reported from killing of 68 armed oppositions including 11 Daesh fighters in aggressive and offensive operations conducted by security forces across the country.

Defense ministry press office reported BNA, the operations carried out aimed to annihilate armed oppositions in outskirts of Herat, Balkh, Jawzjan, and Takhar provinces in which 68 armed oppositions including 11 Daesh fighters lost their lives.

Likewise, five other insurgents were wounded and quantity of heavy and light weapons of terrorists was destroyed in the operations.

According to another report, five ANA soldiers were martyred during the operations in several provinces of the country.

bakhtarnews.com.af

Ineffectual attacks by the Islamic State group’s followers in Southeast Asia have shown them to be fragmented and lacking in the expertise that has produced devastating death tolls elsewhere in the world.

But terrorism experts say that the threat from the militants, who are spread across predominantly Muslim Indonesia, Malaysia and the southern Philippines, should not be underestimated and that they could be transformed into a more dangerous force by training and leadership.

There are plenty of signs that radicals in the region have been animated by IS leader Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi’s call for attacks and the group’s ambition to create Southeast Asian provinces of the IS caliphate even as it loses territory in Syria and Iraq.

A grenade blast at a bar outside Kuala Lumpur in June was acknowledged by police as the first IS attack in Malaysia, where more than 150 people have been detained for involvement with the militant group since 2014. It injured eight people but caused no deaths. Subsequent arrests of people linked to the attack included two police officers.

A suicide bombing directed against police in the Indonesian city of Solo recently killed only the bomber, who police said was a friend of Bahrun Naim, who is one of the hundreds of Indonesians with IS in Syria and who has been linked to other plots in Indonesia.

Both attacks occurred during the holy month of Ramadan but attracted little notice at a time when a wave of militant violence in several countries, including the U.S., Turkey and Bangladesh, killed about 350 people.

“The IS threat has increased across the region but from a relatively low base,” said Sidney Jones, director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict. “We are seeing more connections. The likelihood of communications across national boundaries is higher,” she said. “We need to be open to the possibility that both the method and the professionalism of attacks could increase.”

So far, the success for IS in Southeast Asia has been the power of its slick propaganda and online savvy to recruit predominantly young followers much more quickly than the face-to-face contact that older militant groups relied on.

A professionally produced IS news site, alfatihin.com, using the Malay language understood throughout Malaysia and Indonesia, began publishing in May in an apparent attempt to broaden the group’s reach.

The power of the group to inspire lone wolf attacks in which the perpetrators have no known connections to other radicals, such as the attacks in Orlando, Florida, and San Bernadino, California, is also a potential threat for the region.

“Radical movements are benefiting from information technology,” said Brig. Gen. Hamidin, director of prevention at Indonesia’s counterterrorism agency.

Traditional recruitment through indoctrination at Islamic study groups that can be easily detected and monitored by authorities has been replaced by instant messaging and social media, said Hamidin, who goes by one name. “This is the problem we are currently facing.”

IS has also attracted the support of long-established networks of fighters. Abu Sayyaf, a group in the southern Philippines that professes radical Islamic ideology but which is better known for banditry and kidnappings, has declared allegiance to the Islamic State. So too have the militants who follow Santoso, Indonesia’s most wanted radical, who is under siege from government forces in his jungle hideout on Sulawesi.

But the attacks that IS has inspired in Southeast Asia have had less impact because of the inexperience of the recruits combined with the vigilance of security forces in Malaysia and Indonesia. Plus, many of the hardened Indonesian militants who were part of the al-Qaida-linked Jemaah Islamiyah network behind the 2002 Bali bombings and other attacks are in prison or are opposed to IS ideology and tactics.

Even the Jan. 14 suicide bombing and gun attack by IS followers in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta, killing four people as well as the four attackers, was regarded as amateur by experts and in militant circles.

The June grenade attack near Kuala Lumpur was an example of the low level of IS capability in Malaysia but also a sign it is training to make a bigger impact in the future, said Badrul Hisham Ismail, an analyst with Iman Research, a Malaysian group that studies religion and society.

“The threat level has risen because IS has shifted focus to build an Islamic state in this region,” he said.

IS recruitment has become more aggressive, and some Malaysian militants have joined Abu Sayyaf in the southern Philippines, Badrul Hisham said.

Indonesians are also known to have joined Abu Sayyaf, making it a potential nexus for the region’s militants.

IS released a video in June showing an Indonesian, a Malaysian and a Filipino in Syria acknowledging an Abu Sayyaf leader, Isnilon Hapilon, as the head of IS in Southeast Asia.

According to Jones, the ranks of Abu Sayyaf might in the future provide the hardened militant who can train Indonesia’s would-be jihadis in bomb-making and other skills. Another source could be Indonesian militants released on parole who converted to IS while in prison.

“One would think there would be some introspection among Indonesian leaders in Syria about how to be more effective,” she said. “The only answers are training and leadership and the question is where they will come from.”

japantimes.co.jp

The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan says President Barack Obama’s decision to allow greater military action in support of Afghan combat operations against Taliban militants could have a major effect on the war.

General John Nicholson said near Kabul on July 16 that Obama’s decision will encourage Afghan forces to be more aggressive and added that “armies win [while] on the offense.”

Obama had previously prohibited U.S. forces from targeting the Taliban except in exceptional situations but changed course last month when he decided to allow U.S. forces to use air strikes and other military assets against Taliban fighters if it is in support of Afghan government forces.

“The ability to help the Afghan security forces when they are on the offense is really where we want to be, because when they have the initiative…that’s how they’re going to be successful,” Nicholson said in an exclusive interview with the Associated Press.

Obama announced recently that 8,400 U.S. troops would remain in Afghanistan when his term ends in January.

There currently are about 9,800 U.S. troops in the country.

rferl.org

Security forces on Sunday claimed to have killed a militant during a security operation in Balochistan’s Kalat district.

Five suspected militants were also arrested during the operation, said Khan Wasay, spokesperson for the Frontier Corps (FC).

“An operation was conducted Nimargh area of Kalat district,” confirmed the FC spokesperson.

A cache of arms and ammunition was also recovered from the possession of the miscreants, added Wasay. “The dead and arrested militants belonged to an banned organisation.” Said Wasay.

The arrested militants were shifted to an undisclosed location for interrogation. The arrested militants were involved in attacks on security forces and vital national installations.

Militants have conducted attacks against security forces and national installations in Balochistan, which has been plagued by an insurgency and growing sectarian killings for more than a decade.

dawn.com

President Ashraf Ghani exhorted Afghan forces in Nangarhar province on Friday to rout Islamic State militants operating in eastern Afghanistan.

Ghani in March declared Islamic State militants had been defeated in eastern parts of the country, where they controlled several remote districts. But the militants have had a resurgence in recent weeks and fighting has displaced hundreds of people and left dozens dead or wounded.

During a brief visit to Nangarhar province on Friday, Ghani addressed Afghan forces fighting the Islamic State militants, who have struggled to gain a foothold in Afghanistan.

“What relations does Daesh have with us?” Ghani asked, using an Arabic acronym for the group. “Are we sharing forefathers? Tell me what we share together, what dispute do they have with us?”

“I want to announce from this platform that the brave Selab Army Corps will destroy Daesh within a few weeks,” the Afghan Tolonews website quoted Ghani as saying.

Nangarhar police spokesman Hazrat Hussain Mashraqiwal said the revival of Islamic State was helped by the province’s long, mountainous border with Pakistan.

“When they were defeated [in March] they went back to their hideouts, they got reorganized, and showed up again,” he said. “They will plan big things for a long time, but as soon as our forces reach them, they will be defeated.”

U.S. airstrikes have supported the Afghans’ counterterrorism operations in the east, as the U.S. said it would be shifting more of its focus to the region.

Haji Gulrez Khan a tribal leader in Nangarhar’s Kot district, where Islamic State loyalists last month attacked residential areas killing at least eight civilians and burning down close to two dozen homes, welcomed Ghani’s visit and pledge of support.

“Right now in Nangarhar, it is dangerous, and people are living in fear, especially in those Daesh stronghold areas,” Khan said. “Daesh has carried out very cruel atrocities that even the Taliban didn’t do.”

stripes.com