Tension has escalated in Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp, Ain al-Hilweh, with the arrival of President of the State of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas to Beirut.

Abbas is scheduled for a three-day visit to Beirut, like reported aawsat.com.

Extremist armed factions nestled in the camp initiated a shootout incidentally with the announcement of Abbas arriving in Beirut, resulting in the injury of a civilian, security sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Fears exacerbated that the incident paired with Abbas’ visit would be a mere introduction to a snowballing destabilization of camp security.

Undermining camp stability has become a graver fear in light of holding back security forces from maintaining security within camp premise. The security situation has become fragile as a result of ongoing disagreements between camp factions.

Palestinian embassy sources strongly denied that Abbas would be discussing Ain al-Hilweh security during his visit, pointing out that it is considered ‘secondary’ next to topics the top Palestinian leader plans on discussing with Lebanese officials.

More so, diplomats said that it is up to the Palestinian leaders in Lebanon to decide on camp security.

Palestinian national security chief in Lebanon, Major General Subhi Abu Arab said that Fatah movement, which Abbas also heads, is still decided on suspending its membership from the camp’s security committee.

Fatah waits to re-examine its internal faction functions and the decision-making process. After reassessment, the faction plans to restructure its inner hierarchy, said Maj. Gen. Arab.

“Each faction singlehandedly manages duties in terms of maintaining security inside the camp, without reference to the security committee,” Maj.Gen. Arab told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Speaking on disorder experienced by the camp and which led to the breakdown of the committee’s efficiency, sources say that the chaos is a result of the complex decision-making approach adopted by Fatah.

The unanimous consensus of 15 factions is required for any measure to be implemented. In the case of a single opposition, the whole process is canceled.

Tunisia has the unhappy distinction of being one of the world’s biggest exporters of jihadi fighters, only to see young men trained by the Islamic State return home to kill Western tourists, soldiers and even an unfortunate shepherd, like reported by ap.org.

Now, as the extremists suffer one battlefield defeat after another, Tunisia is being torn by a furious debate over what to do with returnees from among the 3,000 to 6,000 who left – and even how to determine the threat they pose.

“The danger is there. These are people who were indoctrinated. These are people who left and who destroyed their Tunisian passports and who announced that they belonged to the nation of Daesh,” or IS, said Dr. Boutheina Chihi Ezzine, a leader of a protest movement against a government she fears is too willing to downplay the danger in exchange for social peace.

“Frankly,” she said, “we do not know how these people can come back and have the same values as we do, the sense of belonging to Tunisia, to the Tunisian nation.”

The country’s prisons are full, its courts are backlogged with terrorism cases, and its desert borders are porous. The country, which is not on the Trump administration’s banned travel list, is the only one to emerge from the 2011 Arab Spring with a functioning democracy.

It’s that democracy that allowed Ezzine and others to start organizing when President Beji Caid Essebsi said Tunisian jails were too crowded to jail every jihadi who returns, and that most posed no danger. The first protest, held after a Tunisian follower of Islamic State attacked the Berlin Christmas market, drew just a few hundred; the second attracted upward of 1,000.

By official count, around 3,000 Tunisians traveled to the war zone in Libya, Syria and Iraq – most of them to join Islamic State and other extremist groups. Many analysts believe the real number is at least double that. Another 1,250 young people were blocked from leaving, and it is believed that thousands of others are smoldering sympathizers.

In 2015, a Tunisian trained in an Islamic State camp in Libya opened fire on a beach, picking off tourists as they sunbathed. Two others stormed the galleries of Tunis’ Bardo Museum, a popular destination for foreign visitors. In March this year, Islamic State fighters attacked the border garrison of Ben Gardane, and 55 people died in the ensuing fight. A teenage shepherd who refused to hand his flock over to the jihadis was beheaded.

Ezzine is among many who believe the government can’t handle the coming influx, and for her, the last straw was hearing the president downplay the threat in an early December interview. She tracked down Facebook groups of Tunisians with the same concerns and persuaded them to pull together into a collective.

“Even if we have begun to have some political stability, we remain a country that has lived through attacks, through political assassination,” she said.

The group’s slogan – “No to the return of terrorists” – touched a nerve. Her group is now meeting with political leaders, ministry by ministry, to press for a plan.

The government is careful to say that any Tunisian who wants to return can do so.

“We deal with this subject according to the constitution and to the laws,” said Chafik Hajji, a Tunisian diplomat who handles the returning fighters. “Article 25 of the Constitution says that it is forbidden to deprive a Tunisian of his citizenship and to prevent him from returning home. We treat this subject, therefore, with all the seriousness and responsibility that it deserves.”

Ezzine herself acknowledges that no Tunisian can be blocked from returning home, but says the government has done little to prepare for them. Unlike Saudi Arabia, which has had similar issues with jihadis in the past, there is no formal deradicalization program, even if one could be shown to work.

The government says it jails the most dangerous and monitors the rest. Around 800 are already back, Hajji said. Many, additionally, are trapped in legal and diplomatic limbo abroad.

“Tunisia is horrified by the idea that there are thousands of Tunisians who will return together to Tunisia. That’s not happening. We know that these people left in small groups of two or three people and they are returning the same way,” said Ridha Raddaoui of the Tunisian Center of Research and Study of Terrorism.

Raddaoui and Ezzine say the government has no real way to evaluate those who return. They are questioned, and anyone who acknowledges having committed crimes in the war zone is jailed for trial. But the evidence needed for conviction, if it exists at all, is in Syria or Libya. And, Raddaoui said, most end up being freed.

For months, Raddaoui has been examining more than 500 legal cases involving Tunisians accused of terrorism. The result was an in-depth, statistical look at why the Arab Spring’s only democracy is also a major exporter of armed extremists. A significant find, Raddaoui said, was a handwritten letter captured during a firefight with extremists near the Libyan border.

“In the text, these terrorists say we are the people who benefited most from the Tunisian revolution,” he said. “Because first they were able to get out of prison, they were able to organize on a national level, with recruits and everything. They trained, they armed themselves, they created their own camps in the mountains of the northwest.”

They found easy prey in the young people of Tunisia, who expected little from the pre-2011 authoritarian government but had high hopes after its fall. It turned out to be no easier to find good work under democracy than under an autocratic government. Things have only deteriorated further for the nation of 11 million. Tourism dried up, and the unemployment rate, officially around 15 percent, soared among the young, who began to leave for Europe – and for the war zones of Syria and Libya, which shares a 400-kilometer border with Tunisia.

The situation of the travelers can be murky. Mohammed Bel Hadj Amor crossed into Syria at age 19 in 2012, among the first of successive waves of young Tunisians headed for the war zone. Whatever his plans – he says he only wanted to help the Syrian people – he was thwarted almost immediately. He was intercepted first by Islamic State extremists, who killed four of his friends, and then detained by Syrian government forces.

His mother only learned what had happened to him 13 months later, when he appeared in a documentary from the prison where he was being held with 42 other Tunisians. Since then, she has visited him once and received countless calls and texts from behind bars.

But, the family said, Tunisia would not let the group come home. Hajji said the government has received no official request from Syria to take them back. But on Jan. 15, Amor called home to say they had been released and walking out of the prison in Damascus, destination unknown.

“We are leaving now. Pray for us! Don’t worry. God bless you all,” he said in a voice message that his sister, Leila, plays over and over in the family’s home in coastal Tunisia.

That was the last word from the group.

The man who persuaded Mohammed to leave for Syria ultimately died there himself more recently, fighting for the Islamic State group. Another recruiter, who had targeted Leila’s 12-year-old son, remained in town. Her son, she said, now harangues his mother to wear the veil and spends his free time at the mosque.

The commander of U.S. forces in Africa has told VOA the only way to restore peace in Libya is to bring rival factions together, and that will require cooperative efforts by many parties, including Russia.

General Thomas Waldhauser, who heads the U.S. Africa Command, discussed the continuing political chaos in Libya while in Germany for the recent Munich Security Conference.

Libya is a checkerboard of separate, divided power centers: The internationally backed Government of National Accord controls only part of Tripoli, while rival power bases vie for control over the rest of the capital and other cities. Along the North African coast, the head of the Libyan National Army, General Khalifa Haftar, holds sway over much of eastern Libya through his House of Representatives.

Waldhauser says Haftar’s influence “is something to be dealt with,” and that eastern Libya “is where a political solution … has to take place,” in large part because the army chief controls most of Libya’s oilfields.

“This is where it all begins,” the American commander says, and also where Russia comes in.

Russia invests in Libya’s oil

Waldhauser noted it is apparent Russia wants to become actively involved in trying to resolve Libya’s political unrest — not least for its own economic interests — and said he welcomes that.

Russia’s state-owned oil giant Rosneft has offered billions of dollars in investments to Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC), and officials of the two companies announced Tuesday in London that they have a preliminary agreement to pursue a development program. Russia also committed itself to buying an undisclosed share of Libya’s future crude oil output.

The AFRICOM chief said the key to political progress in Libya, which would enable the country to get the greatest benefit from such international deals, is cooperation between the Government of National Accord (GNA) in the capital and Haftar and the Libyan National Army in the east.

“The goal is to get those two together,” Waldhauser said. “The goal is to get those two to talk, and the goal is to make some accommodation in that regard.”

Kremlin’s broader influence

Russia has been trying to gain a larger grip on oil supplies in the Mediterranean and extend its influence in the Middle East and North Africa more broadly. Rosneft’s agreement with NOC, announced at an international oil conference in the British capital, was in addition to a separate deal for Russia to prefinance crude exports from Kurdistan, making Rosneft the first major oil company to take an active role in the semi-autonomous region in northern Iraq. Rosneft also recently acquired a stake in the Zohr gas field in Egypt.

The Libyan oil company estimates it needs $20 billion to reach its production goal of 2.1 million barrels per day within five years.

Turning again to Libya’s political situation and rivalries, Waldhauser said many parties are trying to assist.

“The Egyptians and Russians are also involved in trying to get this all together, because at the end of day a political solution is going to require” the participation of both General Haftar and Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of the GNA, the U.S. commander said.

U.S. supports Tripoli faction

U.S. forces also have been actively fighting against the Islamic State group in Libya — most notably last month, when American B-2 bombers flew a 9,400-kilometer mission from their base in the central U.S. to strike IS training camps in Libya — and Waldhauser says the extremists’ efforts to expand in the north African nation have taken a significant setback.

“It has been very complicated and it continues to remain very complicated. Perhaps, if it’s possible, even getting more complicated,” Waldhauer added. “Our official government position is to support the GNA. And at AFRICOM, we’ve had a very good and close relationship not only with our State Department personnel, but with Prime Minister Surraj as well.”

The AFRICOM chief, who oversees U.S. military operations throughout Africa, was speaking in Munich last week about American participation in Operation Flintlock, a joint military exercise hosted by seven African nations.

American forces in Africa are eager to build partnerships in the sub-Saharan region to tackle terrorists — particularly Islamic State extremists, but also other dangerous groups. Waldhauser said the U.S. works to strengthen its regional partnerships by helping African nations develop their infrastructure, with training and also with crisis response.

U.S. can help in crises

“Many times we think of [crisis response] as a military operation,” the American commander said. “But crisis response is something we would be very, very involved in if there was a humanitarian disaster — famine in Somalia, for example; the Ebola breakout is another example. We do pay close attention to that.”

Nigeria is a key regional partner, and the United States is providing intelligence support and other assistance in the country’s fight against the Islamic State-affiliated terror group Boko Haram. A Nigerian representative to the Munich Security Conference, Major-General Babagana Monguno, said the increasing expansion of terror groups across national borders means international cooperation is vital.

“The uprising in Libya and the eventual capitulation of the Gadhafi government resulted in a southward flow of arms and human beings,” Monguno said. “The most natural place in sub-Saharan Africa for this flow was Nigeria.”

Importance of ‘battlefield ethics’

In the course of their efforts to suppress Boko Haram, Nigerian military forces have been accused of human-rights abuses by Amnesty International and others. Waldhauser said the United States takes such allegations against its partners seriously.

“We understand the requirement for battlefield ethics,” he told VOA. “We make it part of our training, and we try to continue to emphasize that … in the legal system [of the partner nations] and in our discussions with key leaders, as well.”

Operation Flintlock 2017, which is just getting underway, will bring together 2,000 service personnel from more than 20 African, European and North African nations.

It was an image that told Libya’s story in a nutshell. Last week, Fayyaz Al Sarraj, leader of the country’s unity government, sat alone in a Cairo hotel room, waiting for a phone call to meet his country’s most powerful military leader, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.

That call never came. And that silent phone tells you all you need to know about the changing balance of power in war-torn Libya, like reported by gulfnews.com .

In the past three years, Haftar has built the Libyan National Army (LNA) into the most powerful military formation in the country. Based in eastern Libya, it has cleared most of the biggest city, Benghazi, of militias, and in September captured the country’s key oil ports.

The victory over the ports gave the House of Representatives (HOR), based in the eastern town of Tobruk, control over most of Libya’s oil wealth. The parliament, which opposes the Government of National Accord (GNA), showed its appreciation for the oil ports victory by promoting Haftar from general to field marshal.

In January, Russia signalled its approval, inviting him aboard aircraft-carrier Admiral Kuznetsov for talks on defence cooperation. Blunt and uncompromising, Haftar, earlier this week, announced his commitment to continuing the war and vowed to ‘liberate’ Tripoli.

Speaking to Egyptian radio on Monday, Hafter alluded that terrorist groups, without naming any, were being trained by some Nato countries and “also provided them with weapons secretly”. Haftar urged some Nato states to reconsider their positions. “We sent back in coffins the terrorists that Turkey had dispatched to Libya,” he said, but did not elaborate.

Al Sarraj, by contrast, is seeing support ebb. The United Nations Security Council backed his Government of National Accord in December 2015 with a resolution, calling on the world to recognise it as Libya’s only legitimate government.

But the GNA remains at the mercy of Tripoli’s all-powerful militias, who are themselves locked in bitter street battles for prime real estate. On Monday, one of those militias ambushed Al Sarraj’s motorcade, raking the convoy with gunfire and leaving him unhurt, but shaken.

America, until now the key backer of the GNA, has fallen away. The new administration of President Donald Trump has yet to give definitive comments on Libya, but is expected to designate Muslim Brotherhood, one of the key factions in the GNA, as a terrorist organisation.

As such, that would rub out any US support for the GNA and leave it floundering, and both Al Sarraj and Haftar know it.

Whereas the erstwhile administration of former US president Barack Obama viewed Muslim Brotherhood as a positive non-violent expression of Islamism, Trump officials view it with suspicion, accusing it of links with violent groups.

Trump’s chief strategist Steve Bannon has long made combatting Muslim Brotherhood his cause celebre. Brotherhood supporters, though, insist the organisation, which spans many sub-groups across the Muslim world, is committed to non-violence.

Yet, it is likely to suffer if the US designates it as a group supporting terrorism. Trump’s Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, used his confirmation hearing last month to equate Brotherhood with Al Qaida: “The demise of IS [Daesh, or the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant] would also allow us to devote our attention to other agents of radicalism like Al Qaida, Muslim Brotherhood and certain elements within Iran.”

This drastic imbalance of power — between Haftar, Libya’s most powerful figure, and Al Sarraj, who’s power is minimal — was grimly apparent at last week’s planned Cairo talks. Egypt had organised the talks, hoping to get dialogue going. But despite strong efforts by Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah Al Sissi, he could not convince Haftar to hold the meeting. After a day of waiting, Al Sarraj flew out of the city empty-handed.

Russia, in backing Haftar, is now in a powerful position in Libya, with its state oil company, Rosneft, this week signing a cooperation deal with the state-owned National Oil Corporation. This has left Pentagon officials fearing the US will be left behind in Libya, with one US defence official admitting that he fears Russia may “Do a Syria on us” in Libya. In Syria, Russian support for President Bashar Al Assad has undone years of US diplomacy, handing the dictator the upper hand.

Last week’s failed Cairo talks were unable to replace civil war with dialogue. The failure to get Prime Minister Al Sarraj and Haftar into the same room clearly shows where the power now lies in Libya.

Now there is no other choice but Hafter.

As he managed to stretch his control over most of eastern Libya, including the oil fields, after ridding Benghazi of militant threats, Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar is now looking to capitalize on his gains in a bid to have the final say on his country’s future, like reported by arabnews.com.

His entry into the Libyan political fray, following the toppling of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, was relatively late. He was once close to the defunct regime, but then spent two decades in exile in the US. Supported by various factions in the eastern part of the war-torn country, Haftar is quickly emerging as a political and military powerbroker who has become essential to reaching national reconciliation and preventing Libya from disintegrating.

Since he launched his offensive against the militants in Benghazi in May 2014, Haftar has managed to form what is now called the Libyan National Army (LNA). His recent victory over Al-Qaeda affiliate Ansar Al-Shariah, and other militant groups vying for control of the east, has affirmed his power while undermining efforts by the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Fayez Sarraj in Tripoli.

His negotiating position became stronger when his forces took over the so-called Oil Crescent in September 2016, putting him in control of Libya’s only source of foreign currency. He has long opposed the GNA, which includes representatives of militant groups, and his main ally, the speaker of the Tobruk Parliament Agilah Saleh, has derailed attempts by the UN and Sarraj to fully implement the Skhirat agreement of December 2015.

Tilting things in his favor is Russia’s recent announcement that it was interested in mediating a solution in Libya. A few weeks ago, it invited Haftar to visit one of its warships in the Mediterranean, sending a message that it now stands with the 73-year-old general.

A recent attempt by Cairo to host a face-to-face meeting between Sarraj and Haftar was a failure. The latter made clear that he is against political Islam and in particular the Muslim Brotherhood, whose loyalists have considerable influence over the Presidential Council and the GNA. Today Libya has three governments — only one is internationally recognized — and two armies, in addition to a dozen armed militias with tribal affiliations.

Russia has been critical of NATO’s intervention in Libya in 2011, which it saw as the reason for the chaos that followed. US and European efforts to stop the ensuing civil war, mainly between rival tribal factions, have achieved little as Libya inched closer toward partition.

The Sarraj government has failed to win recognition by rivals in Tripoli, and is yet to implement the Skhirat agreement. On Monday, it was reported that Sarraj’s convoy was shot at in the capital by unknown assailants.

The administration of former US President Barack Obama had reduced its involvement in Libya following the killing of its envoy in Benghazi in 2012 by radical groups. But now there are signs that the administration of his successor Donald Trump may actually work with Russia on Libya.

It is not farfetched that both Moscow and Washington may be entertaining the idea of backing Haftar to emerge as Libya’s strongman. His credentials as a fierce opponent of the Brotherhood who controls a sizable military force are appreciated by the US and Russia.

Sarraj, who has called on Moscow to help influence Haftar, is facing growing opposition from his own supporters. Still, his tribal allies in western Libya, led by the Misrata brigade, were able, with the help of US Special Forces, to limit the threat of Daesh, especially in their stronghold of Sirte. NATO still believes he can succeed in uniting various factions under the umbrella of one Libyan army.

But now Haftar, who is also supported by Egypt, appears to be backing away from a proposal to create a joint committee to negotiate national reconciliation and hold elections by February 2018. He may be waiting for the Trump administration to unveil its policy on Libya, while hoping that the Sarraj government will eventually be abandoned by NATO.

For the Europeans, Libya’s political stability is essential to controlling the crossing of illegal immigrants, and possibly militants, from Libyan shores into Europe. In addition, creating a well-trained national force will ensure that Daesh and its ilk do not establish a foothold in Libya.

This is also important for the country’s immediate neighbors. This week, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria met in the Tunisian capital to discuss the Libyan crisis. They agreed that any solution must be achieved by Libyans themselves.

But that is easier said than done. Libya is a vast tribal country with weak national institutions. The eastern part has long entertained calls for independence. And with militant groups still active in the western part, reconciliation with Haftar seems remote.

But by leaning toward Haftar, Russia, Egypt and others could be foiling the last possible chance for a power-sharing agreement that seems to be the best formula to run the country until fresh elections are held. Haftar may be delaying an accord with his rivals in a bid to jockey for ultimate control of most of Libya, a risky gamble that could easily backfire.

ISIS called the Middle East’s largest Christian community a jihadist’s “favorite prey”

Issuing a call to ISIS supporters to attack Coptic Christian churches in Egypt, a pro-ISIS Egyptian channel on Telegram has released a list of targeted religious buildings in each province and across the country. The channel, called “Egypt’s Apostate Watch” urged its followers to attack the named churches and sites with explosives, guns or knives, while another Telegram channel supporting the terror group claimed there were plans afoot to launch attacks against Christian churches and their ‘interests’ in Egypt, like reported by vocativ.com.

ISIS militants in Egypt recently released a 20-minute video calling for the killing of Coptic Christians. It purported to describe the outsized role ISIS believes Christians play in influencing Egyptian politics and the economy.

In the video, ISIS showed for the first time a man named Abdullah al-Masri, who the group claimed was responsible for the bombing of a Coptic Christian cathedral in Cairo that killed 25 people in December. Appearing masked and holding a rifle, the man promised to “liberate Cairo.”

At the end of the video, ISIS addresses Christians in Egypt. “You are our first target and favorite prey,” the video said.

Libya’s returning oil wealth could bring back cheap fuel, food and foreign goods in a subsidy-based system in the most optimistic scenario. But as oil prices and production rise, the future of new political developments hangs in the balance in a growing power struggle between Russia and the United Nations, like reported by oilprice.com.

Last week, the U.N.-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya announced plans to reshuffle its leadership, which it hoped would be a way to bring influential General Khalifa Haftar—the GNA’s key rival—into the Tripoli-based organization’s ranks.

Cairo hosted members of both parties to discuss cooperation between Haftar’s House of Representatives/Libyan National Army based in Tobruk and the GNA – which vowed a “180 degree turn” in relations if Haftar agreed to take a role within its hierarchy. But the meeting never happened.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi could not convince Haftar to accept a position within the GNA’s governing structure, rendering the meeting fruitless at a crucial moment for the next stage of Libya’s reconstruction. More than ever, the presence of a strong U.N.-backed GNA with Haftar’s support is necessary to keep Russian interests at bay.

As highlighted by the Huffington Post last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin is paying his dues to solidify Moscow’s foothold in Libya after all but guaranteeing the future of President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.

Haftar – a U.S. citizen who lived in Virginia for 20 years — has travelled to Moscow twice in the past six months for meetings with senior Russian military and defense officials. Leading up to the swearing in of U.S. President Donald Trump, the general toured a Russian aircraft carrier parked right off of the Benghazi coast, where he held a video conference with Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu.

Putin maintains that his country has observed the terms of the U.N.’s weapons embargo to any military organization other that its own GNA, but Russian military advisors have been offering their services to the LNA with increased enthusiasm in recent months.

The relative stability of the status quo could fall apart at any moment – jeopardizing the progress that the unified National Oil Corporation (NOC) has made in recovering oil production to levels seen only in the last days of dictator Muammar Ghaddafi.

New figures from the NOC marked oil production at 700,000 barrels per day, on track to meet its 1.7 million bpd production goal for March 2018, when all oil facilities will be at full capacity. The increasing revenues are crucial for the reconstruction of the country’s major industrial areas as the Arab Spring-sparked civil war wraps up.

So far, the NOC has been able to reliably secure areas with the presence of foreign oil and gas multinationals.

“Eni and Total are working there with no problems, so the situation is improving every day in Libya and I’d like to take this opportunity as an introduction for those who have interest to work in Libya,” NOC board member Jadalla Alaokali said in an interview during the Cairo talks. “More than 45 percent of the land is still virgin, hasn’t been explored, so we still have large areas that haven’t been discovered, so the opportunity is there.”

Domestic turmoil led fellow members of OPEC to exempt Libya from the restrictive terms of a recent deal to cut output and reinvigorate oil prices. Unencumbered by the production limits endured by its rivals, Tripoli now has an opportunity to benefit from US$50+ oil prices without stalling new exploration projects.

Russia is making another major move on Libyan oil. Russia’s state-owned Rosneft just signed investment and crude oil purchasing agreements with the NOC, agreeing to invest in exploration and production.

Burgeoning Russian influence and new wealth could mean weapons contracts for Russia, which lost a few billion in arms deals after the fall of Ghaddafi. Installing Haftar in a Ghaddafi-style government would be Moscow’s surest route to recovering those upended contracts.

Observers should take new developments in the North African state with a grain of salt. An assassination attempt on Fayes al-Sarraj prime minister of the GNA — like the one that happened just this morning in Tripoli – could cause the political arena to erupt with a vengeance.

“The prime minister’s convoy came under fire as it passed by a government complex held by supporters of the national salvation government [led by Khalifa al-Ghawiel],” a member of the presidential council told Anadolu Agency anonymously. Al-Ghawiel, who disbanded the GNA’s rival General National Congress (GNC) in April, only to revolt and reestablish it in October, would have gained notoriety had the attack succeeded.

In 2015, the U.N. established the unity GNA to end the conflict between Haftar’s HoR and the GNC. The unwelcome return of the latter, and its latest attempt at a political knockout, guarantees forceful clashes between militias affiliated with both groups.

At any point, all momentum could be thwarted by a strategic explosion or murder, ending fragile truces. And the stakes only grow higher as Libyan oil wealth returns.

Tunisia will always be remembered as the country that started the Arab Spring. The wave of protests that began there toppled several dictators, from its own President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi. It also contributed to the start of the civil war in Syria.

In most of the countries that saw Arab Spring uprisings, the struggle for democracy has suffered serious setbacks. In contrast, the transition in Tunisia from 23 years of dictatorship to a fully-fledged working secular democracy seems to be heading in the right direction. Yet, the transition remains fragile, like reported by carnegie-mec.org .

MAKING HISTORY

Following the Jasmine Revolution in 2010/11, triggered by Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in protest against a lack of opportunity and political say, Tunisia has been working hard to ensure a clean break with its recent past. In January 2014, the country adopted a new constitution that focuses on transparency and states one of its aims as “breaking with injustice, inequity, and corruption.” In February 2015, Tunisia formed its first post-transition government after free and fair elections the previous year.

The dedication to live up to the revolution’s goals pervades Tunisian society and institutions, and has been praised by international organizations. The Nobel Peace Prize for 2015 was awarded to the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, an alliance of Tunisian workers, employers, lawyers and activists, which was formed in 2013 when the democratization process was in danger of collapsing because of political assassinations and widespread social unrest.

That danger has not dissipated. In 2015, Tunisia was struck by tragic terrorist attacks that killed 60 people, mostly tourists, at Tunis’s Bardo National Museum and in the seaside city of Sousse. The attacks compelled the government to declare a state of emergency, while several countries issued advisories against traveling to Tunisia. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the terrorist attacks were “a severe blow to an economy already facing large external and fiscal imbalances.”

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Tunisia’s economic growth collapsed in 2011: its gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 1.9 percent, after averaging 5 percent in the previous decade. It jumped to 3.9 percent in 2012, so far its fastest post-revolution growth rate. Following the terrorist attacks in 2015, growth fell to less than 1 percent. In 2016, it reached a rather deceiving rate of 1.5 percent, primarily because of limited investment. The unemployment rate remains high, at 15 percent. Youth unemployment has been rising since mid-2014 and is estimated at 35 percent.

Tunisia’s main economic sectors include agriculture, industry (primarily petroleum and mining), textiles and tourism. Only the agricultural sector has supported economic growth over the past two years. The textile industry is increasingly facing competition from Asia, while the tourism sector is the first victim of terrorism. The oil and gas industry has encountered several problems, both technical and commercial, worsened by an adverse investment climate.

OIL AND GAS

Tunisia is not a big oil and gas producer, but given the state of this small economy, every little bit helps. Besides, Tunisia’s resource potential may be much larger than what it is known today, especially considering its shale resources. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Tunisia’s proven oil reserves are approximately 425 million barrels (Mb), while its proven gas reserves are only 56 billion cubic meters (bcm). Its technically recoverable shale oil and gas resources are 1,500 Mb and 644 bcm respectively and have yet to be explored.

Production from both conventional oil and gas is declining. Oil production has been steadily falling from its peak of 120 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in the mid-1980s to 53 tb/d in 2015, declining by 30 percent since 2010. Gas production peaked in 2010 at around 9 million cubic meters (Mcm) daily, and reached 6.2 Mcm per day in 2015 – a drop of 31 percent. Such poor production performance is partly due to natural declines at (mostly small) existing fields and required maintenance work, as well as limited investment in exploration. Production also suffered because of strikes and social unrest.

DISRUPTIONS

The unstable security situation has not directly impacted exploration and production activities. It has, however, increased the cost of doing business in the country, because companies have to spend more on security. Now that oil prices are far lower than they were during the period between 2010 and the summer of 2014, international companies find investment in Tunisia less appealing.

Additionally, social unrest has disrupted some companies’ operations, particularly in the impoverished south of the country, where most of Tunisia’s oil and gas fields are located. Petrofac, a British firm, had to halt is gas production at the Chergui plant in the Kerkennah Islands for most of 2016 because of protests. The Tunisian government had to import gas from Algeria to compensate for the shortfall at a cost of around $100 million.

The protests were triggered by a campaign promoting the slogan “Where is the oil?” and fueled by anger over the lack of job opportunities. Protesters accused the government and the companies of signing contracts that did not benefit the local population. Bruised by years of corruption, the citizens demanded that the contracts be made public.

In response, the government published 50 oil and gas contracts – a bold and welcome step that many other countries still shy away from. The initiative is also in line with the government’s pledge to fight corruption and should send a positive signal to the locals and the international community. On its own, however, transparency will not be enough to tame existing discontent: boosting economic growth and creating jobs remain essential. These two objectives require an improved business environment.

OIL PRICE IMPACT

Fluctuations in the oil price have been a mixed blessing for Tunisia. Lower prices have provided some economic relief. Above all, they helped the government implement reforms, such as reducing energy subsidies. Because Tunisia’s oil production is low, the reduction in energy subsidies (which saved the government the equivalent of about 1.6 percent of GDP according to the IMF) more than compensated for lower oil revenues caused by the drop in production (a loss of about 0.7 percent of GDP).

Tunisia has been a net importer of energy since 2000. A combination of a declining production and an increasing local demand has increased the country’s dependence on imports. The lower oil prices have reduced the country’s import bills and narrowed the current account deficit.

These benefits may be limited in 2017. The decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production appears to have put a floor on oil prices at around $55 per barrel. If Tunisia’s production and consumption levels continue their current trends, this will worsen the country’s balance of payments (all else being equal) with damaging economic repercussions.

The additional danger is the economic health of Tunisia’s biggest trading partner, the European Union, which absorbs about 80 percent of its exports. This worry has come into particularly sharp focus with the rise in oil prices, which tends to dampen economic growth in countries that are major consumers.

The Tunisian government’s priority is to increase investment in the oil and gas sector. More investment potentially means more discoveries, which could ease the decline in production over the long term. In 2014, investment in oil and gas exploration ($194 million) was just half that of 2010 ($373 million). In 2016, just one of the 11 planned exploration wells was drilled. An improvement in the business climate could encourage capital spending. In this respect, higher oil prices will be beneficial, especially if accompanied by greater social stability.

WAY FORWARD

The transition in Tunisia from more than two decades of dictatorship to a properly functioning democracy will take time. When the revolution started, some experts predicted the process would last at least 10 years.
On the bright side, despite the insecurity and social unrest, Tunisia’s transition has been better managed than most of the countries that saw Arab Spring protests, where similar moves toward democracy either stalled, were reversed or led to a bloody civil war.

Tunisia’s economic recovery remains fragile, but expectations are optimistic. The World Bank forecasts a growth rate of 2.5 and 3 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The IMF estimates a more robust increase of 4.7 percent by 2020.

This cautious optimism does not downplay the magnitude of the challenges ahead. Security, political and social risks are high, dampening investor confidence.

In the short term, the petroleum industry may be able to provide some relief if oil prices maintain their upward momentum, boosting investors’ appetite for risk. But the question is whether prices will reach high enough and last long enough to compensate for the dangers. In the longer term, if the government establishes a supportive institutional framework and society allows it to function properly, investment in unconventional oil and gas could make a big difference.

Terror group chief Hassan Nasrallah advises Jewish state to ‘count to a million’ before starting conflict with Lebanon

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Monday doubled down on his recent saber-rattling against Israel and warned that his terror group would not hold back from attacking sensitive Israeli targets if the Jewish state goes to war with Lebanon, like reported by toi.com.

During a television interview with the Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, the terror chief repeated a previous threat of firing rockets at Israel’s nuclear reactor in Dimona and at a huge ammonia storage tank in Haifa.

Hezbollah will not keep to any “red lines” in a future war with Israel, Nasrallah cautioned.

“In the face of Israel’s threats to destroy Lebanon’s infrastructure, we will not abide by red lines, especially regarding Haifa’s ammonia and the nuclear reactor in Dimona. Hezbollah possesses the full courage for this,” he said, according to an English translation of his comments reported by the Naharnet website.

He also warned Israel to “count to a million” before going to war in Lebanon.

“We are not advocates of war. We are in the defense position,” Nasrallah said.

Israel and Hezbollah fought a punishing war in 2006, but have maintained a tense calm watched over by UN peacekeepers on the border since then, punctuated by several deadly cross-border incidents.

Israeli officials have raised alarms in recent years that Hezbollah may be bolstering its positions in southern Lebanon and in the Syrian Golan Heights, and a court recently ordered an ammonia tank in the city of Haifa to be shut amid fears a missile strike on the facility could sow mass casualties.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun, who draws support from Hezbollah, recently called for the terror group to remain armed to “resist Israel,” despite a UN resolution forbidding militias in Lebanon.

In other statements reported by IRNA affiliated Press TV Monday night, Nasrallah offered reassurance to the Palestinians that they have not been forgotten. On Tuesday, a two-day international conference on the Palestinians was set to kick off in Iran with the participation of some 80 delegations.

“The most important result and message of this action for the Palestinian nation is that you have not been left alone and that an important and powerful country in the region supports you,” Nasrallah said.

The Hezbollah leader commented on US President Donald Trump’s statements last week during a press conference in Washington with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which he said that Washington would no longer pursue only a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and would look at any plan the sides agreed on.

Nasrallah said that Trump’s apparent bucking of decades of previous US policy supporting the two-state scheme was a positive development in that it showed Israel’s true intentions regarding the Palestinians.

Last Thursday Nasrallah boasted that his rockets could reach Israel’s nuclear reactor in the southern city of Dimona, and said he would turn Israel’s reported nuclear arsenal against it.

Nasrallah, who had previously threatened to target an ammonia tank in Haifa, claimed credit for an Israeli court decision to shut down that facility last week and said he would do the same with the nuclear reactor.

An assessment commissioned by the Haifa facility found that a strike on the tank, which holds some 12,000 tons of ammonia, could cause tens of thousands of injuries or deaths in the area.

In response to Nasrallah’s statement, Minister of Intelligence Yisrael Katz threatened in a statement to target “all of Lebanon,” including infrastructures there, in retaliation for any attack on Israeli population centers or infrastructures. He also called for “debilitating sanctions” on Iran over its support for its “proxy and stooge” Nasrallah.

On Sunday an Arab media reported that Nasrallah’s threats last week came after Israel passed a message to Hezbollah warning it of a forceful response to any attack from Lebanon or Syria, where Hezbollah has been helping prop up Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime by fighting against rebel groups seeking to oust him.

The message was passed along to the Lebanon terror group via an unnamed Arab emissary, according to a report in the Arabic-language London-based Al-Hayat newspaper. It was not clear exactly when Israel sent the message or what prompted it.

International agencies believe Israel has over 100 nuclear weapons. Israel has neither confirmed or denied the existence of its nuclear arsenal, maintaining a policy of “nuclear ambiguity.”

Israeli Minister of Defense Avigdor Lieberman addresses the ISIS report that an Israeli drone killed five of its fighters in the Egyptian peninsula; ‘I don’t think ISIS in Sinai poses a major threat’

Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman sarcastically commented on the ISIS report that an Israeli drone killed five of its fighters in Sinai in an interview to Army Radio on Monday night. “The source of the attack today was indeed Sinai and as always, I guess Lichtenstein’s Special Forces liquidated a few ISIS terrorists in Sinai yesterday and the day before that,” said Lieberman, like reported by ynetnews.com .

The Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman added: “We leave nothing uncommented. I don’t think ISIS in Sinai poses a major threat. It’s vexing, it’s bothersome, but when you speak of Hamas and Hezbollah, they’re without a doubt no longer terror organizations; each of them has built its own army.”

ISIS claimed on Sunday that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) belonging to the Israel Air Force attacked a vehicle on Saturday, liquidating five of the Islamic terror group’s members in the Rafah area. ISIS-affiliated news agency al-Amaq reported that the alleged attack was carried out in a village in southern Rafah.

Monday morning, two rockets were fired from the Sinai Peninsula and landed in open space in Israel near the Egyptian border, in the Eshkol Regional Council. There were no casualties and no damage was incurred.

A week and a half ago, four rockets were fired from the peninsula toward Eilat—three of which were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile-defense system and the fourth falling in an open area. Approximately two hours after the attack, Hamas reported two casualties and five wounded in an attack in the Rafah region. IDF officials claimed the attack may have been executed by the Egyptians.

The defense minister also addressed the Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s threat to attack the Ammonia tanks and Dimona. “A dog that barks doesn’t bite,” said Lieberman. “I advise him to continue sitting there in his bunker, making these small cameos. I don’t intend to have any kind of public argument with him.”

Lieberman also addressed the verdict that is set to be handed down on Tuesday in the case of IDF soldier Elor Azaria’s trial, saying he hopes the judges take into consideration the fact he is an outstanding soldier who fought terrorists.

“I advise the family not to prolong their suffering. After the verdict is handed down, they may appeal to the Central Command Chief and ask him to mitigate the punishment.”