The Islamic State group and al Qaeda are aggressively expanding to the politically unstable North African country of Libya, according to a report Wednesday by a U.S.-based security consulting firm. Since dictator Moammar Gadhafi was overthrown in 2011, Libya has been a hotbed for civil war and extremism, with training facilities and recruitment drives springing up to support terror-driven conflicts in the Middle East.

“Given geography, expansive territory, extensive oil reserves and its history with violent jihadist networks, a failed state in Libya could be disastrous for North Africa and Europe as well as the broader international community,” said a report from Soufan, a New York City security group led by former FBI agent and 9/11 investigator Ali Soufan.

Libya has been in despair since Gadhafi was captured and killed five years ago as part of the Arab Spring revolutions that spread across North Africa and the Middle East.

The report said that despite the possible formation of a unity government and democratic elections, any new leader would immediately face “the monumental task of reuniting the country both socially and militarily,” which would be proven difficult in the country’s vast and ungoverned swathes of land along its huge unguarded borders.

Making matters more troublesome is the fight for Libya’s large oil reserves, the control of which has “allowed violent extremist groups such as the Islamic State and al Qaeda to thrive,” noted the report.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that Libya was among several countries where corrupt or incompetent leaders help fuel violence and chaos. Given lack of controls in nations like Libya, Syria and Iraq, terror groups have seized passports in order to create a fake I.D. industry that is facilitating terror goals in Europe, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

ibtimes.com

Tunisian police have broken up a cell recruiting fighters for Islamic State in Libya and Syria, authorities said on Wednesday.

Tunisia declared a state of emergency after a suicide bombing killed 12 presidential guards on a bus in the capital Tunis in November. That followed major gun attacks targeting foreign tourists at a Tunis museum and a beach hotel, both of which were claimed by Islamic State.

“Our special forces counter-terrorism unit dismantled a cell which included nine extremists in Bizerte who were actively recruiting young people to send them into areas of trouble,” the interior ministry said.

It said those arrested had admitted recruiting for Islamic State in Libya and Syria.

Tunisia, mostly a haven of stability since its 2011 revolt against autocrat Zine Abidine Ben Ali, is increasingly being challenged by Islamist militants, who have hit army patrols and checkpoints as well as carrying out major attacks.

Several thousand Tunisians are fighting with Islamic State and other groups in Iraq and Syria. The gunmen in the Sousse and Bardo Museum attacks all trained at militant camps in Libya before returning to their home country.

reuters.com

First reports say six dead as rescue operations continue…

At least six Hamas militia fighters were killed and others were wounded Tuesday night when a tunnel dug under the northernmost point of the Gaza Strip close to Israeli territory collapsed, local sources said.

Hamas initially said six people were killed but then slapped a news blackout on the incident.

Rescue work resumed in the Beit Lahya area Wednesday morning after a night of bad weather that likely was the cause of the earth shifting in the tunnel.

ansamed.info

Almost four years after the revolution that toppled dictator Col. Muammar Qadhafi, the security situation in Libya remains extremely unstable. The country still hosts two rival governments—the General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli, supported by the Libya Dawn militia; and the House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk, supported by the Libya National Army (LNA)—neither of which has been able to effectively exercise control over the vast Libyan territory. The political and security vacuum left by the Qadhafi regime has allowed the black market economy to flourish, and enabled criminal and violent extremist networks to establish a foothold in the country. In an in-depth report released today, The Soufan Group outlines the security implications of continued instability in Libya.

On December 17, 2015, representatives from the GNC and HoR signed a UN-brokered agreement in Morocco, pledging to form a Government of National Unity. However, on January 25, 2016, the HoR overwhelmingly rejected the deal, with only 15 of 104 members voting in favor. Opposition from powerful elements, especially Libyan National Army (LNA) commander General Khalifa Haftar, made approval of the deal unlikely. Even if a Unity government is ultimately formed—which seems unlikely due to internal divisions within the GNC and HoR—it will immediately face monumental hurdles to stabilizing and rebuilding the country. To this day, an array of militia groups—armed through widespread looting of massive weapons stockpiles—battle for control of smuggling routes, key resource hubs, and support from regional powers. Despite a period of relative calm after the tumult of the revolution—during which time oil production almost reached pre-revolution levels—the inability of the transitional government to effectively disarm these militias doomed it to failure.

With no centralized enforcement of the rule of law, criminality and warlordism have flourished. As in states like Afghanistan, Yemen, and Syria, the main benefactors of the state’s collapse have been violent extremist groups. Despite the presence of affiliates in West Africa, the Sinai, the Caucasus, and Afghanistan—among others—Libya now represents the only area outside of Iraq and Syria where the so-called Islamic State actively controls territory, having established a beachhead in the central coastal city of Sirte. The group is now aggressively expanding in all directions, seeking to take control of key energy infrastructure and trafficking routes.

The Islamic State has generated revenue from the black market smuggling networks running through the country, and is also using these routes to import fighters from neighboring countries—particularly Tunisia. Some Islamic State recruitment materials have even begun instructing aspiring foreign fighters to travel to Libya, rather than the group’s besieged positions in Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State so values its territory in Libya that it sent a senior member—Iraqi national and former Ba’athist party member Abu Nabil al-Anbari—to head the Libyan branch. Though al-Anbari was killed in a U.S. airstrike in November, his presence revealed the direct command-and-control relationship between Islamic State leadership in Syria and Iraq and the Islamic State in Libya.

Al-Qaeda has also exploited the instability in Libya to expand its North African operations. Through its regional affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)—and its splinter group al-Mourabitoun—the group has been active in the Sahara and Sahel regions for years. It also has a historical base of support in Libya, particularly in the eastern cities of Benghazi and Derna. Through its allegiances with the Tuareg tribes in southwestern Libya, AQIM has established its own beachhead in Libya from which to conduct its military and economic activities. Like the Islamic State, al-Qaeda is drawing revenue from the lucrative smuggling trade, and has a strong presence in the key transit hub of Ghat on the southwestern border with Algeria.

As with Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, al-Qaeda is operating through proxies such as Ansar al-Shariah in Libya (ASL)—the group that assaulted the U.S. consulate in Benghazi—and the Abu Salim Martyrs Brigade, which now largely controls the city of Derna. Through these proxies, al-Qaeda is attempting to disguise its presence in Libya, and to integrate itself into the political future of the country. ASL is a component of the Libya Dawn militia supporting the GNC government in Tripoli. The group has even been allowed to control, operate, and draw profits from a major oil refinery in the western city of Mellitah.

Continued instability in Libya will only see these criminal and violent extremist elements entrench themselves further. The expansion of these networks within the country represents a rapidly evolving security threat to both the region and the West. Without genuine reconciliation between the rival governments in Tripoli and Tobruk, there can be no hope of building an alliance strong enough to counter the growing influence of both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. The December 17 agreement is a good start, but there is much more work to be done before any unity government becomes a viable option.

soufangroup.com

Militants killed three people, including two police officers, in an assault against a security checkpoint in Egypt’s Sharqia province on Sunday.

Police say the attackers rode motorcycles and opened fire on the checkpoint, located in the city of Faqous. Four civilians were injured in the attack, and a local farmer was killed.

The incident comes amid a rising level of militant attacks in recent weeks and among a general trend of extremist violence following the ouster of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in 2013.

On Thursday, 10 people, including seven police officers and three civilians, were killed in an explosion during a raid by security forces on a suspected militant hideout in Giza.

Velayat Sinai, previously known as Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, pledged allegiance to Daesh in November 2014. The Egyptian army has long been engaged in military operations against the militants in the volatile Sinai region, which has been under a state of emergency since October 2014.

The latest terror attack came on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the January 25, 2011 uprising that toppled Egypt’s longtime dictator Hosni Mubarak.

abna24.com

Libya’s internationally recognised parliament on Monday voted to reject a UN-backed unity government, lawmakers said, in a major blow to international efforts to end the country’s unrest.

“We voted against endorsing the government and ask… to be presented with another government,” parliamentarian Ali al-Gaydi said.

Of the 104 lawmakers in attendance, 89 rejected the new government, he said.

A national unity government headed by businessman Fayez al-Sarraj and comprising 32 ministers was formed last week under a UN-sponsored accord signed last month.

Parliament member Al-Saliheen Abdelnabbi said the government had been rejected because its cabinet was too large.

He called for “a smaller government without this high number of ministries”.

Libya has had two rival administrations since August 2014 when a militia alliance including Islamists overran Tripoli, causing the recognised administration to flee east.

Confidential documents reviewed by Asharq Al-Awsat revealed a plan made by senior leaders in ISIS, Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, and the Islamic Brotherhood in Libya to integrate into a unified “Shura Council”.

The documents reflect the existence of a state of confusion among the leaders of the extremist groups following the signing of the National Reconciliation Government agreement led by Fayez Al-Siraj. These organizations headed towards integration to limit the internal conflicts, which emerged between a number of their leaders due to external interventions.

A leader in the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group told some of his colleagues from Tripoli leaderships that his group has lost its prestige due to the weakness of al-Qaeda and the strength of ISIS. He added that the situation now requires integration with ISIS and that Tripoli must now be for Libyan Islamic Fighting Group and the Islamic Brotherhood, led by ISIS.

According to documents, a meeting was held at Mitiga International Airport in Tripoli between Al-Madhuni Battalion commander and an envoy to the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, called Sufian al-Ghazali.

Security monitoring operations in Libya of the leaders of the three organizations since the beginning of last month have revealed their agreement on increasing their activity in the neighbouring countries, and expanding the operations of extremists in Egypt from Rafah and Sheikh Zuid in Sinai to Cairo and Alexandria.

aawsat.com

On Sunday, IDF reported a missile attack on an open area in southern Israel, adding that it brought no injuries.

Today it was being reported that a lone sniper in Sirte, who had operated in Tripoli to deadly effect in the last days of the Qaddafi regime, has today killed the third member of IS in ten days.

According to unconfirmed social media reports, an IS commander,  Abdullah Hamad Al-Ansari, who comes from Obari, was killed by a sharpshooter on Saturday as he left a city centre mosque. Ansari was rushed the hospital where he died.

There are reports of subsequent intensive IS searches for the sniper in nearby buildings, but it is being said that the triggerman was not to be found. It is being claimed that Ansari was his third victim in the last ten days, though no details of his other two victims are clear.

The sniper, whoever he is, has already acquired an unlikely reputation on social media. He is being fingered as the unidentified individual who in 2011 wreaked havoc in Tripoli among Qaddafists in the closing days of the regime.

Sniping is a very specialised art. Besides the ability to stalk and home in on a selected target, with all the essential preliminary intelligence that that requires, a sniper also needs both initial concealment and a feasible evacuation plan once the shot has been taken. If it is indeed the case that there is a sniper operating in Sirte, then it somewhat undermines the IS claims that they have total control of Qaddifi’s old home town. The killer appears to have been able to disappear into a safe location.

One military analyst told the Libya Herald: ” There are all sorts of sniper weapons out there. The Americans tend to go for heavy, stable killing platforms whereas the Russian Dragunova is the exact opposite. You could shin up a tree, take your shot and be back down again with no great effort”.

libyaherald.com

Tunisian officials Monday announced their security personnel foiled an attempt by a terrorist group to infiltrate into the country from across its border with Algeria.

A Tunisian News Agency report quoting Tunisian National Guard Brigadier Khalifa Al Shibani, said security forces thwarted the one group of terrorists attempting to enter into Tunisia via the port while another group was caught last night trying to sneak in through Umm al ‘Arhis town in the Gafsa governorate.

The group tried to ambush forces returning to Patrol Centre headquarters of the centre, however, the forces quelled the group in the gun-battle which compelled them to flee, he said.

The gun-battle lasted over 20 minutes and there were no casualties among the National Guard, he added.

thepeninsulaqatar.com