When US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week in Moscow, top priority was given to Syria and Ukraine. But another nagging crisis was also on their plate: Libya.

With plans advancing for an assault against the Islamic State’s capital in Raqqa, Syria, an estimated 5,000 ISIL fighters, and some top ISIL leaders, have moved into the Sirte region of Libya, controlling a coastal area of 150 miles, and triggering a refugee flight that has European governments bracing for an even bigger refugee influx of a million Africans this year.

A coalition of NATO countries, including the United States, Italy, France and Britain have been working up and revising plans for a military campaign against the Islamic State in their new African beachhead. British SAS commandos are on the ground in Libya, along with US Special Forces. So far, the Pentagon is planning what is described as a limited military campaign, involving bombing sorties, from bases in Italy, and drone attacks on ISIL leaders, modeled on the “decapitation” program that has knocked out some top ISIL commanders in Iraq and Syria.

Even the limited military actions are, for the time being, on hold.  The stumbling block is the lack of a unity government in Libya. In fact, there are four distinct “governments” controlling parts of the country. An internationally recognized parliament, based on June 2014 elections, is seated in internal exile in Tobruk. A coalition of Islamist militias, broadly grouped under the Libya Dawn umbrella, controls the capital city of Tripoli. The Islamic State is controlling the Sirte region, which contains some crucial oil port and refinery facilities. And in December, United Nations special envoy Martin Kobler formed a Government of National Accord.  That GNA has been rejected by both Tobruk and Tripoli.

Last week, Kobler announced that the Government of National Accord would be moving into Tripoli to begin governing. Immediately, in response, the “prime minister” of the Islamist coalition controlling the capital declared a state of “maximum national emergency,” threatening to mobilize all militias to fight against the GNA intrusion. The Foreign Minister of Malta, George Vella, warned that Libya is nearing a “point of no return,” and urged the United Nations to drop the planned insertion of the Government of National Accord, because the effort would intensify the national discord and revive the worst of the fighting.

The Libya Dawn coalition of militias next issued demands that any unity government must accept Sharia law, and, more important, must remove General Khalifa Haftar from power. Gen. Haftar is the Defense Minister of the internationally recognized Tobruk government, and has led Operation Dignity, targeting the Islamist factions.

While all of these cross-purpose efforts continue, with no clear solution in sight, the Islamic State is taking full advantage of the rifts. ISIL forces are presently moving to take over Ras Lanuf, the site of key oil depots.

An estimated 90 percent of the population of ISIL-controlled areas of the country have fled. UN envoy Martin Kobler has declared a humanitarian emergency, with both food and medicine in short supply. The Libyan economy is in crisis, with oil production down to 350,000 barrels a day, from a pre-2011 peak of 1.6 million barrels.

The African Union has warned that the planned NATO intervention can result in a spreading of the ISIL operations south into other parts of Africa, where groups like Boko Haram and Al Shabab have already announced their affiliation. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM) has been deeply entrenched in north Africa for a long time, and poses further terrorist threats to the continent.

While Kerry and Lavrov agreed, in principle, that the ISIL threat to Africa had to be countered, they were not able to come up with any concrete plans, as time works in favor of the Islamic State, and Tripoli and Tobruk-centered rivals are more focused on fighting each other than in forming a unified effort against ISIL.

mebriefing.com

Local sources in the city of Sirte said that new fighters from, Somalia, Tunisia and Algeria arrived in Sirte to join the Islamic State (IS).

About 20 fighters arrived in the city at dawn, Friday, on board Toyota vehicles, holding the IS banners and arms, coming from Sabratha and crossing Abu-Najaim, Zamzam and Jaref , sources told Al-Wasat website.

The IS controls Sirte for almost a year, expanded to Bin Jawad in the east, established its own “Emirate and imposed its view of strict laws, and changed school curriculums and weekends”.

Another source said that the group shot dead, Thursday, two brothers from Bin Nayel family, sentenced the third brother with six months in prison.

The two brothers are Emhmed and Mohamed Bin Nayel Maadany from Sirte, accused of “supporting Salafists during events occurred on 13 August 2015 between the IS and Salafists”, sources told Al-Wasat website.

The sources added that both brothers were arrested since three months, imprisoned. Tunisian and Egyptian fighters carried out the execution. The group also executed another Libyan, on Tuesday.

This follows the execution of two former officers, one is a captain, accused of joining the Libyan army troops. Sources said that the two were detained last week.

libyaprospect.com

The head of Libya’s national consensus government Fayez Al-Sarraj yesterday announced that his government will operate from Tripoli, France Press reported. The French agency quoted a source in the Libyan naval forces as saying that Al-Sarraj held a meeting with the naval forces’ commanders upon his arrival on the base.

Libya’s Presidential Council had announced that Al-Sarraj was in Tripoli.

Libyan sources said that most of the members of the Presidential Council arrived on board Italian frigates, adding that the cabinet’s headquarters has been completely secured in preparation for Al-Sarraj’s arrival.

Amid expectations that the UN-backed national consensus government was about to move from Tunisia to Tripoli, explosions were heard in the city and they were followed by heavy gunfire in the early hours of yesterday.

The national consensus government has been warned against relocating to the city.

middleeastmonitor.com

On March 18, the Salafi-jihadist group, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), attacked a gas facility in the locality of Khrechba, near Ain Salah in Algeria. A few days before, on March 13, AQIM attacked L’Etoile du Sud resort in the city of Grand Bassam, South of Ivory Coast killing 18 people. On January 16, AQIM fighters stormed the luxury Splendid Hotel and an adjacent café in Ouagadougou and killed 29 people.

In the volatile Sahel region, these attacks, in addition to the kidnapping of dozens and even killing of some Westerners, prove that AQIM remains a looming threat. AQIM is highly adaptive and resilient, giving it a high capacity for destruction.

From the GSPC to AQIM

AQIM’s origins extend back to the Armed Islamist Group (GIA), an Algerian jihadist group that opposed the Algerian regime in the 1990s. The GIA was the most dangerous and prominent group in the Algerian jihadist scene. The group eventually turned against the communities that supported it and “excommunicated” the entire Algerian population through the excessive use of extreme violence. Several of its lieutenants condemned its takfiri ideology and defected. One of them was Hassan Hattab, who left the group in 1998 and created his own group called the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC).

The GSPC continued the fight against the Algerian state and its security forces, without attacking civilians, in order to regain their support. In 2007, Hattab’s successor, Droudkel decided to rally al-Qaeda and rebranded the GSPC al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. This marriage de raison was beneficial for GSPC’s image. Besides being more visible (media coverage), being under the al-Qaeda’s umbrella allowed it to galvanize people and increase its recruitment. As for al-Qaeda, the union was also advantageous because the organisation wanted to expand, or at least give the impression of expansion, and maintain its reputation as an omnipotent organisation that could grow and draw recruits even in North Africa.

AQIM’s “Sahelization”

AQIM conducts attacks principally against Algerian targets (603 attacks since 2007).¹ And the main objective remains the overthrow of the Algerian taghout [impious] regime. Yet, the group has been able to hit further than its original target, thanks to its capacity to adapt. The creation of the “Sahara emirate” in 2009 by an offshoot of al-Qaeda under the leadership of Mokhtar Bel Mokhtar allowed for the proliferation of extensive networks with local communities, criminal organisations and institutions. As a result, AQIM and its various cells and partners, has been able to conduct attacks beyond Algeria: in Mali (227), Mauritania (32), Tunisia (25), Niger (17), Morocco (11) and Libya (7).

The fall of Gaddafi in 2011 gave AQIM the ability to acquire weapons easily, refill its stocks and recruit more fighters such as the highly equipped and experienced Touaregs who were supported by Gaddafi and went back home to Mali after his fall. In 2012, AQIM joined forces with radical Touareg groups called Ansar Al Dine and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), and they were able to seize important parts of northern Mali including Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu. In January 2013, French intervention in Mali (Serval operation) to stop AQIM’s advancement forced the jihadists to look for shelter in neighbouring countries.

Also, the security vacuum in post-Gaddafi Libya allowed AQIM to open training camps like the one in Ubari (Southwestern Libya) where Bel Mokhtar trained his commando for the January 16, 2013 attack on the gas complex of Ain Amenas in Algeria. AQIM’s activities are linked to high-scale corruption at different levels. Because of its financial ease thanks to dozens of kidnappings (earning $4.5 million per hostage) and smuggling activities (about $100 million), AQIM is able to buy the loyalty of local communities as well as security forces.

During more than a decade of existence, AQIM has been able to extend from its Northern front in Algeria to a Southern one that includes the Sahel countries. With its multiple cells, offshoots and partners, the organisation became harder to target and is able to gain stronghold as shown by the Malian experience in 2012. A military intervention will not suffice to put an end to this highly malleable yet organised power.

The ground that led AQIM to develop and grow in the first place – terrible socioeconomic conditions, extreme poverty, weak governance, spread of crime, marginalisation, ethnic conflicts and limited development – is still fertile. The breakdown of the social contract between the ruling elite and their populations made the latter vulnerable to participate in cross-border crimes and rebellion.

The topography of the Sahel is also a major obstacle for counterterrorism operations. In addition to under-staffed, inexperienced and poorly equipped militaries (with the exception of Algeria and Morocco), there is a lack of financial and logistical resources, lack of security sector reform, and weak coordination of efforts against security threats in the Sahel countries. For instance, the joint patrol that was supposed to be created in 2010 by the Comité d’état-major opérationnel conjoint (CEMOC) between Algeria, Niger, Mauritania and Mali did not see the light. Not to mention that strategic countries such as Libya, Tunisia and Morocco were excluded from this initiative, revealing the lack of trust between them.

AQIM’s priorities remain regional and it is likely that the group will expand to new Sahel countries where the conditions are favourable for recruiting, fundraising, refilling weapon stocks and conducting attacks. The groups is also boosting with money, weapon and experience other criminal groups that are “salafi-jihadist” by convenience. AQIM is a lasting threat for North Africa and the Sahel. It is unlikely that the group will conduct any attack on European soil. Nevertheless, because of France’s interest in the region, we might witness another intervention once again.

¹Data on AQIM’s attacks in Algeria compiled from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) website.

carnegie-mec.org/

Fierce clashes have reportedly erupted between so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) and Nusra Front terrorists in the mountain slopes of Arsal and Ras Baalbek with both sides deploying assorted light and heavy weapon systems resulting in multiple deaths and injured among militants on both sides.

Earlier, ISIL reportedly mounted concerted attacks on Nusra positions and logistical centers physically liquidating a number of militants and field commanders in the process.

Nusra Front gunmen headed by Arsal-based local field commander code-named Abu Malek at-Talleh, have responded by launching a counter-attack of their own; they brought reinforcements to recover positions lost earlier to ISIL in Zamarani, Ajram, Kornet Hachichat, Malahi and Shebib Valley.

The clash between the two rival militias reportedly goes on unabated with no immediate word on damage or casualties.

nna-leb.gov.lb/

ISIS affiliate in Gaza claims ISIS will increasingly focus on US and Israel, promises a major attack in Israel is only a matter of time.

While Islamic State (ISIS) attacks in Europe and massacres in Syria and Iraq have dominated the headlines in recent months, the radical Islamic terror group may be shifting its focus, placing a greater emphasis on Israel and the United States.

This Sunday, a Gazan Salafist official and ISIS affiliate Abu al-Ayna al-Ansari spoke with an American journalist, Aaron Klein, about the terror organization’s capabilities and future plans.

Al-Ansari, who is believed to have close ties to ISIS, emphasized that the terror organization would be focusing on Israel and the US, and viewed those two nations as its primary enemies in the pursuit of an Islamic caliphate.

“Israel and the United States are at the top of the list of the targets of the Islamic State,” Al-Ansari said on the Aaron Klein Investigative Radio show. “The Islamic State educates its people that Israel and the United States are the leaders of the infidels and we believe that Israel should be disappeared [sic].”

Perhaps most disturbing, however, are reports that ISIS is building an extensive terror infrastructure along Israel’s southern border. Taking advantage of the minimal Egyptian presence in the Sinai, Wilayat Sinai, an affiliate of ISIS, has expanded its capabilities for a potential attack on Israel.

According to Al-Ansari, ISIS is already planning its first major attack on Israeli soil. A major ISIS attack on Israel, he claims, is only a matter of time.

“I can confirm that it is only a question of time when there will be a big operation in Eilat and in the south of Israel. The Wilayat Sinai will be the ones responsible for the confrontation with Israel.”

Speaking with Israel Army Radio, Yehuda Cohen, the commander of the IDF’s Sagi Brigade which secures the border with Egypt, admitted that such an attack was indeed likely.

“In the end it must be remembered this organization was formed by terrorists that dream of a terror attack against Israel, and it will come. It’s clear that there will be a terror attack against Israel, I believe that it will happen during my tenure,” Cohen said.

While Israel has hitherto been spared the horrors ISIS has inflicted on Syria and Iraq, ISIS activity against Israel has been on the rise in recent months. In February a Sudanese national, allegedly inspired by ISIS, stabbed and wounded an Israeli soldier, becoming what is believed to be the first ISIS attack in Israel.

Earlier in March a suicide bomber affiliated with ISIS bombed a popular shopping center in Istanbul, murdering three Israelis and wounding dozens after tracking the Israeli tourists from their hotel.

Just this Monday two Arab residents of Jerusalem were charged with planning bombing attacks on Jerusalem for ISIS.

inn.com

In an interview with al-Youm al-Saba’a, Shoukry evaded answering a question on whether Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, stating that the Lebanese people should judge on that issue.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has refused to label Hezbollah as a terror organization, explaining that “this issue is to be decided by the Lebanese people.”

In an interview with the Egyptian daily newspaper al-Youm al-Saba’a, Shoukry evaded answering a question on whether Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, stating that he is not authorized to judge on the issue.

“Hezbollah’s agenda focuses on Lebanon, which is an Arab sister state that faces great internal instability. The Lebanese people are the one to judge whether Hezbollah is a terror organization or not, “Shoukry said.

In light of the Arab League’s recent decision to designate Hezbollah a terrorist organization, Shoukry argued that “the Arab League’s decision is related to Hezbollah’s behavior, describing it as terror. However, the international community has not yet reached an agreed definition of ‘terror.'”

Shoukry’s remarks demonstrate the ongoing rift between Egypt and Saudi Arabia regarding Hezbollah, amid the upcoming visit of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Cairo in April.

Nevertheless, the foreign minister stated that Egypt’s relations with the Saudi kingdom are very good, adding that the level of communication between the leaders of both states is very high.

Relating to the Syrian conflict, Shoukry argued that while both states are members of the Syrian Support Group, they do have controversy regarding the political solution to the conflict.

“While the kingdom has long been advocating for Assad’s removal, we do not lay out such conditions because we do not think it is our role to support one of the sides in the political equation in Syria,” Shoukry said.

jpost.com

Self-proclaimed authorities of Libya’s capital Tripoli announced Friday a state of emergency in Tripoli following reports about the arrival of members of the UN-backed presidential council to Tripoli.

“The state of emergency shall be declared across the country. The cabinet is in permanent session,” it said.

Khalifa Ghwel, Tripoli’s prime minister, said that he asked security agencies and armed militias “to take all necessary actions to preserve the security of the country by increasing security patrols and checkpoints.”

Feyez Serraj, prime minister of the Tunis-based UN-sponsored government and head of the presidential council, has revealed that the new government will move to the capital “in a few days” according to a plan with Tripoli’s security agencies and armed groups.

Serraj’s unity government has been named based on a peace deal signed by Libya’s political rivals.

However, the new government has been rejected by both rival authorities.

Ghwel’s government has rejected the UN-backed government, saying in a statement that “a government imposed by the outside and without the consensus of Libyans has no place among us.”

Also, the internationally recognized authorities in eastern Libya warned against “imposing the unity government” without prior approval of the House of Representatives (parliament).

Libya suffers a political division with two rival parliaments and governments battling for legitimacy. The country has been struggling to make a democratic transition since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011.

xinhuanet.com

The ISIS buildup in Libya is undeniable. U.S. Commander General of Africa Command David Rodriguez testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 8 that the Islamic State in Libya represents a serious and growing threat to the security and interests of America and its allies throughout the region.

While the United States, Italy and other coalition members continue to pressure Libyans to endorse a UN-brokered national unity plan, the same coalition members are starting to weave together plans for the “day after,” should a unity government be formed. Should such a government request international assistance, only hours or days will pass before more coalition forces will be on the ground, in the air and at sea. Among these coalition partners and throughout this buildup, Italy is bound to play a key role in the coalition. This is because of colonial ties, the influx of migrants that seek daily to cross the Mediterranean, the two countries’ geographic proximity and their shared economic interests.

While much has been made of U.S. plans, little is known about the role the Italians are playing and the assets they bring to the coalition. In January, Italy and the United States reached an agreement allowing American armed drones to fly from its Sigonella Naval and Air Station in Sicily, while over fifty Italian special operations forcesare being deployed in Libya this week.

This is on top of the over forty Italian intelligence officers sent to Libya since July 2015, and the long-standing Italian presence on the ground, aimed at collecting human intelligence. More forces are expected in the weeks to come. The Italian contributions complement Washington’s unrivaled convening power to seek a diplomatic path toward a unity government. Additionally, the United States has superior overhead imagery capabilities and the ability to carry out two-thirds of all precision strikes needed to counter ISIS.

Within this context, two different clocks are ticking: a diplomatic one to establish a Libyan unity government, and a military one to counter ISIS. The two are out of sync. Rome is unwilling to assume a leading role in Libya until a unity government is in place. Washington will not wait indefinitely to step up operations against ISIS. At the same time, the Italians are acutely aware that an ISIS stronghold in Libya would present a fundamental threat to their security. Equally, the Americans are reticent to further stretch themselves politically and militarily and would welcome strong Italian leadership. The diplomatic and military clocks must be aligned for Rome and Washington to effectively work together.

Italians and Americans should coordinate their efforts by playing “good cop, bad cop.” Rome should emphasize to the Libyans that forming a unity government would enable them to play a more proactive role in shaping the agenda of an Italian-led international engagement. At the same time, Rome should highlight that there is a limit to the extent that Italy can restrain Washington from escalating a military intervention beyond the control of all Libyan stakeholders.

While continuing to support diplomatic efforts, the United States should up the tempo of its military preparations and surgical interventions. This would put pressure on bickering Libyans by showing them that they are running out of time to reach an agreement. Cajoling Libyans into forming a unity government would better align the American and Italian efforts to fight ISIS. Most importantly, it would give Libyans a say in the future of their country.

nationalinterest.org/