On October 31, 2016, following a prolonged crisis that paralyzed Lebanon’s political system for two and a half years, General Michel Aoun was elected president. Aoun entered the presidential palace in Baabda after an agreement was reached that constituted a victory for Hezbollah and the March 8 Alliance over its opponents in the March 14 Alliance, led by Saad Hariri, head of the Future Movement. Two weeks later, on November 13, 2016, Hezbollah held a military demonstration at al-Qusayr in Syria, not far from the border with Lebanon. The timing and place were no accident. Al-Qusayr, located on the road halfway between Homs in Syria and Tripoli in Lebanon, is a symbol of the organization’s military success in Syria following its important victory there in 2013 – a victory marking Hezbollah’s publicly acknowledged intervention in the fighting on the side of the Assad regime and its position as a “defender of Lebanon” controlling an external envelope along the border with Syria. The demonstration was held on the organization’s “Shahid Day,” one week before Lebanon’s Independence Day. With the end of the political crisis and the events in Syria, Hezbollah’s demonstration of power– intentionally or not – sent a dual message: to Lebanon, and to regional and international actors.

In the internal Lebanese sphere, Hezbollah has triumphed in its long political struggle. Since May 2014, there has been no president in Lebanon, after the Lebanese parliament failed to appoint a replacement for outgoing President Suleiman. Hezbollah has consistently supported the candidacy of Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement and an important ally of the March 8 camp. The March 14 camp first supported the candidacy of Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea, then switched its support to Suleiman Frangieh, and finally bowed to pressure from Hezbollah, after realizing that time was working in favor of Hezbollah, which was consolidating its ruling status in Lebanon. The March 14 camp agreed to support Aoun in return for the appointment of Hariri to another term as Prime Minister. Hezbollah’s persistence over such a long period while forcing its rivals’ hand demonstrates its endurance and patience, which were ultimately rewarded by the results it sought from the outset. Hezbollah’s achievement also constitutes an additional blow to Saudi Arabia in its struggle with Iran over influence in Lebanon. The strengthening of Iran’s Shiite satellite in Lebanon reinforces Iran’s grip on the region.

Throughout the crisis Hezbollah refrained from using military means, preferring a political solution that incurred no risk of escalation and a civil war. Becoming the “defender of Lebanon” and exercising control of the border between Lebanon and Syria in response to the activity of the Salafist jihad organizations has given Hezbollah unprecedented status, which it could have used to take over the government and law enforcement institutions. Hezbollah preferred, however, to wait for victory on the political field – a reflection of its caution in using its leverage within the country and desire to avoid a violent internal conflict. Having proven its political power, at al-Qusayr Hezbollah paraded its military power and supremacy over the Lebanese state security forces (Western weapons may have been selected for the demonstration of force precisely for that reason). The demonstration likewise supplied further justification for Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria in the name of the defense of Lebanon against the war spreading to its territory. This justification is essential to Hezbollah, due to the severe criticism it received in Lebanon for its intervention in Syria. Hezbollah’s Sunni and Christian rivals asserted that Hezbollah’s involvement in the war in Syria would draw the war into their country and drag Lebanon into a bloodbath. Opinions are not even uniform within the Shite community. The heavy casualties damaged the support for Hezbollah and its policy (although the criticism was kept within the community, and solidarity was outwardly observed). In this context, a demonstration of strength such as the one in al-Qusayr is an important boost to the Shiite community.

The demonstration was also a precedent at the regional and international levels. This is the first time that Hezbollah highlighted its military power outside of Lebanon, other than on the battlefield. Such an event conducted by a non-state power on foreign soil is no routine matter. In addition to the symbolic significance of al-Qusayr, recent developments in Syria and in the international campaign are forcing Hezbollah to maintain its role and status in the war in Syria. The intense battles in Aleppo require massive input from the coalition supporting Assad, comprising Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The conquest of Aleppo by the pro-Syrian coalition will fortify Assad’s status as the sole ruling option. The Syrian backbone from Aleppo to Damascus, in which al-Qusayr occupies a key position, is the most stable ground for Assad, and supremacy there, achieved to a great extent with the help of Hezbollah, is maintained. In the background, US President-elect Donald Trump is hinting that he wants to the hand the “Syrian file” to Russia, so it is possible that Hezbollah’s demonstration of force is also aimed at Russia, with an eye to the day after Assad regains control of Syria.

The use of American equipment in the Hezbollah demonstration has figured in most of the responses in Lebanese discourse. The sight of Hezbollah soldiers on M-113 armored personnel carriers (APCs) has led this debate to the obvious conclusion that the arms that the United States supplies to the Lebanese army are sent on to Hezbollah. This is no surprise to any of the parties, but it is sometimes necessary “to see in order to believe.” Hezbollah’s military dominance, not just outwardly, but also in preserving order in Lebanon, has weakened the status of the state security forces and blurred the boundaries between the state forces and the Shiite organization to the extent that some believe that Hezbollah controls the Lebanese army. This challenges the position in the United States and European countries such as France and Italy that the Lebanese army should be strengthened in order to change the internal Lebanese balance of power and weaken Hezbollah’s influence. Realization of this situation – that supporting the Lebanese army and government means strengthening Hezbollah – led Saudi Arabia to suspend its aid to Lebanon in early 2016. The Lebanese army, which understood what this meant and was eager to preserve American support, sought to reassure the United States by claiming that it was not the source of the weapons featured at al-Qusayr. According to another report, the APCs displayed proudly by Hezbollah were captured from the South Lebanese Army supported by Israel before its demise in 2000. The lack of clarity about how the aid given to Lebanon was used and the concern that this aid finds its way to Hezbollah could confront the West, especially the new US administration, with a substantial dilemma concerning continued aid to the Lebanese military.

In conclusion, Hezbollah currently has the advantage over its enemies in Lebanon. Its power and rule – direct and indirect – over events in the country are undisputed. At the present time, there is no political or military power able to challenge Hezbollah in Lebanon. Its power, however, can also be its weak point. Realization by the new United States administration that aid to Lebanon in effect constitutes aid to Hezbollah – even if the understanding has yet to sink in – could lead to reconsideration of economic and military aid to Lebanon, despite the end of the political crisis in the country. This is likely to have a negative impact on the country’s economy and the stability of its institutions, thereby arousing widespread unrest against Hezbollah and strengthening the opposition to it – with an emphasis on the radical Sunni element. This is currently a remote possibility, but developments in this direction are also liable to bring about a conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, should Hezbollah decide that such a conflict will be useful in the Lebanese theater. At the present time, Hezbollah is acting very cautiously and is unwilling to risk escalation with Israel or the destabilization of Lebanon. From Hezbollah’s perspective, its leading interest now is fortifying the Assad regime in Syria and strengthening the Iranian axis stretching from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut.

scoop.co.nz

A Libyan medical official says that a car bombing in the heart of the eastern city of Benghazi has killed two people and wounded 17.

Mohammed Zwai, the head of the first aid unit in Jalaa Hospital, says a car laden with explosives detonated in the hospital’s parking lot on Monday. It’s the third attack targeting the hospital this year.

Zwai says the death toll is expected to rise as several of the wounded are in critical condition.

Benghazi, Libya’s second-largest city, has been the scene of more than two years of fighting between forces loyal to renegade military commander Khalifa Hifter and Islamic militants, including an Islamic State affiliate.

Last week, Hifter’s forces expelled Islamic militants from their key stronghold in the city but fighting continues in other areas.

ap.org

The wife of Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the Algerian-born head of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), is reported to have been tracked down and arrested near the desert town of Mechili, some 100 kilometres south of Beida. She and another Tunisian woman, together with their driver, were caught heading towards Jufra, south of Sirte, according to the Libyan news agency LANA.

It quotes the spokesman of the Beida government’s anti-terrorism and subversion directorate, Sami Al-Matrih, saying that they were ambushed following a tip-off.

It is being suggested that they were on their way to meet Belmokhtar in southern Libya.

A number of reports, moreover, claim that he was the prime target of the air raid on Gurdah Al-Shatti six days ago in which a number of AQIM fighters were said to have been killed.

Although the anti-terrorism directorate has said that the one of the two Tunisian women arrested is Belmokhtar’s wife, it has not named her.

It was not previously recorded known that he had a Tunisian wife. He is known to have had four but they were supposedly all from Mali.

Belmokhtar has used southern Libya as a base on numerous occasions. His notorious attack on the January 2013 seizure of the In Amenas gas facility in Algeria in which 40 people died, almost all foreigners, is believed to have been organised from Libya.

libyaherald.com

Clashes and heavy fire were heard Friday midnight in Tripoli downtown Zawiyat Dahmani area, sources from the neighbourhood reported Saturday.

The sources added that exchange of heavy and medium fire took place between the Sixth Force personnel and Special Deterrence Force personnel in Zawiyat Dahmani.

The skirmishes were triggered by the arrest of the son-in-law of the Commander of the Sixth Force Nayeem Al-Thuwaibi, Salah Al-Hajrasi, in retaliation for the arrest of two Special Deterrence Force personnel, Kamal Al-Amin, and Ayoub Al-Bouaishi two weeks ago, Tripoli security official confirmed.

“Special Deterrence Force gave the Sixth Force a deadline to end the current hustle and bustle and there is a possibility that it will attack the Sixth Force HQ and the armed group that is positioned in the electronics street in Zawiyat Dahmani.” The official added.

He also said that the Commander of the Sixth Force ordered the closure of the roads in downtown Tripoli with waste containers, tree trunks and rocks, however; the Special Deterrence Force refused such acts and clashed with the force.

libyanexpress.com

Hezbollah showed off U.S.-made tanks in a parade in Syria, which some thought were stolen from Lebanon, but U.S. military officials say that is impossible because they gave the Lebanese military a different model.

Images of the parade, held in Qusayr, Syria, are raising concern about terror groups in the Middle East using U.S. military armored personnel carriers distributed as part of aid to various nations in the region.

While some have suggested the tanks were taken from the Lebanese Armed Forces, which the United States has been supporting in its battle against militant groups in Lebanon. Last summer, the U.S. gave the military about $50 million worth of equipment, including vehicles, grenade launchers and tons of ammunition.

A U.S. State Department official told The Washington Post the vehicles in the pictures are “unlikely” to have come from the Lebanese military, and Pentagon spokesman Chris Sherwood backed the official up, saying “the structural analysis of the vehicles in the picture” does not match those provided to Lebanon.

The M113 armored personnel carrier, or APC, has been used in every major U.S. military conflict since the Vietnam War. The vehicle has also been given or sold to other countries around the world as part of aid packages, in addition to being used by many police departments in the United States.

U.S. officials say the model M113 Hezbollah has may have come from the Southern Lebanese Army, which Israel supplied with military equipment — including 20 M113s — from 1984 until 1996. Hezbollah may also have taken them from the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, but officials are also unsure how they got their M113s.

upi.com

The armed forces led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar announced a “great victory” against jihadi fighters in Libya’s second city of Benghazi on Thursday.

“We now have total control of the Qawarsha sector,” 10 kilometres west of the centre of Benghazi, said Ahmad Mesmari, spokesman for Haftar’s forces.

Mesmari hailed what he termed a “great victory” in what had been a stronghold of Ansar al-Sharia, a group close to al-Qaeda that is classified as a terrorist group by the United Nations and United States.

Haftar’s forces, called the Libyan National Army, were pursuing the Islamist militants in Qanfouda, further west, one of the last remaining jihadi-held sectors of the Mediterranean city.

He did not give a casualty toll for the fighting but a military source said Wednesday that 12 of Haftar’s soldiers had been killed in clashes since Tuesday.

Thirteen “extremists” died in three days of battle, according to another spokesman for Haftar’s forces, Ali al-Thabet, but there was no independent confirmation of that toll.

The US envoy to Libya, Jonathan Winer, on Thursday issued a rare show of support for the forces of Haftar, a controversial and divisive figure in Libya.

“Tough sacrifices by #Libya National Army soldiers this week reported – 20 killed & 40 injured in counter terror fighting in Benghazi,” he wrote on Twitter.

Benghazi, birthplace of the 2011 revolution which toppled Libya’s longtime dictator Muammar Gaddafi, has been the scene of daily clashes for the past two years between Haftar’s forces and jihadist militias holding onto pockets of the city.

alaraby.co.uk

U.S. Africa Command is tracking Islamic State fighters who have fled the battle in the coastal Libyan city of Sirte, a possible prelude to more expansive U.S. airstrikes in the country, the top U.S. general for Africa said.

“We have to continue to develop those targets and have certainty of who we are seeing and what the activities are,” AFRICOM’s Gen. Thomas Waldhauser said in an interview with Stars and Stripes late Wednesday. “We just need to have that level of certainty if we decide to strike outside the limits of Sirte.”

The move to neutralize Islamic State fighters in other parts of Libya comes amid concerns the group could regroup and threaten the North African nation’s fragile government or infiltrate into neighboring states, Waldhauser said.

“We need to leverage that success (in Sirte) by watching where these individuals go, keeping track of where they are,” he said. “Because what we don’t want them to do is re-emerge, come back, attack Tripoli, attack the (government) forces, who are in Sirte, from behind.”

More than three months into Operation Odyssey Lightning — the U.S. aerial campaign targeting Islamic State fighters in Sirte — Libyan government forces have backed the insurgents into a corner.

It was estimated last summer that about 4,000 Islamic State fighters were operating in Libya and that the majority had taken root in Sirte, a city the insurgents came to dominate. Now, about 200 are holed up in a small number of buildings, restricted to a couple of city blocks, Waldhauser said.

It is urban warfare, with Libyan troops clearing out the last remnants of militants, one building at a time.

“Those ISIL fighters who are left are there for one specific reason,” said Waldhauser, using an alternative name for the Islamic State group. “They are going to die there, but they are going to cause as many casualties as they can prior to that happening.”

The remaining fighters have established a network of tunnels, roadside bombs and booby traps, which has complicated efforts to clear them out of the city.

“We knew it was going to be difficult. It probably is taking a bit longer than we would have wanted, but nonetheless, it is down to a very small piece of real estate, a couple blocks that are left,” Waldhauser said. “Government … forces are going through those buildings and houses, really building by building, room by room, to rid out the remnants of ISIL that are there.”

The Islamic State group’s move into Libya gained momentum during the past year as pressure mounted on the organization in its main strongholds in Iraq and Syria.

“This (Libya) would be a fallback position if Raqqa and Mosul fell,” said Waldhauser, who assumed command of AFRICOM in July.

Offensives are now underway in Raqqa, the Islamic State’s de facto capital in Syria, and in Mosul, the last major Iraqi city still under Islamic State control.

Libya has emerged as a focal point for AFRICOM’S efforts on the continent, with nearly 400 airstrikes being conducted since operations began in August. Many of those have been carried out by aircraft operating from U.S. Navy vessels positioned off Libya’s coast. The U.S. has also quietly begun conducting surveillance operations from a drone site in neighboring Tunisia to improve itstracking of enemy fighters on the ground in Libya.

Operation Odyssey Lightning is AFRICOM’s second venture into Libya, where in 2011 the command led the first wave of airstrikes against Moammar Gadhafi’s regime. NATO later took over the mission, which critics have blamed for causing the current chaos in Libya.

In the past, NATO officials have shifted the blame, saying that the turmoil over the past five years was due to the failure of Western political leaders to place some type of peacekeeping force in the country after a successful military campaign.

Nonetheless, Libya has degenerated into a virtual failed state, with scores of militias and militant groups vying for territory.

In the meantime, Waldhasuer said, military operations are aimed at blunting Islamic State attempts to find a haven while Libyan officials work toward establishing political order.

“It is a concern for all of us, so consequently we keep an eye on it in conjunction with the Government of National Accord. We keep an eye on where these fighters are heading. And we know that they have moved on to various places within the country,” he said.

stripes.com

Tunisian police have arrested four people suspected of planning to carry out attacks in the capital.

Yasser Mesbah, a spokesman for the Tunisian Interior Ministry, said on Wednesday that the group was composed of three men and a girl, adding that they were “planning attacks against a commercial center and a post of the National Guard (police) in Tunis.”

The spokesman said the four, who had been communicating on Facebook, were arrested in the capital’s southern suburb of Ben Arous.

Tunisia has experienced violence since the 2011 uprising that ousted the country’s dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who was in power for over two decades.

The country has also been affected by the growing instability in neighboring Libya, which has been in chaos since former dictator Muammar Gaddafi was toppled and later killed in 2011.

Since November 2015, Tunisia has been in a state of emergency in the wake of deadly attacks on the Bardo National Museum in Tunis and a seaside resort in Sousse, which were claimed by the Daesh Takfiri terrorists.

On November 14, security sources said they had discovered five caches of arms in southern Tunisianear the border with Libya and seized large quantities of weapons.

On November 9, the Tunisian Defense Ministry said the country’s army had hunted down and shot dead a leader of a militant group affiliated with Daesh that assassinated a soldier at his home in central Tunisia.

albawaba.com

The Libyan National Army (LNA) says it made progress yesterday in the battle in south Benghazi’s Ganfouda and Gwarsha districts and now fully controls Tripoli Road separating them, having destroyed all the militants’ checkpoints along it. It also says that 12 Sudanese nationals being held by the militants as human shields in Ganfouda managed to escape. However, it also says that that there are still 180 foreign workers of various nationalities held prisoner in the district.

According to a spokesman for Saiqa Special Forces, the 12 Sudanese managed to escape under cover of darkness during the night and make their way to LNA lines. As well as being used as human shields, the Sudanese reported that they and others were forced to work for the rebels, transporting arms and equipment for them.

The LNA also says that it discovered a field hospital used by the militants with lists of names of those who were treated there and a bomb-making factory at one of the farms in Gwarsha.

Claiming that the militants were now fully surrounded with their supplies cut off, the LNA added that yesterday it bought in a mine flail machine from Ajdabiya to make a safe path into Ganfouda which has been extensively mined by the militants.

Many LNA fighters have been blown up by mines. Four more were reported killed yesterday, although the exact circumstances have not been disclosed.

Yesterday also saw continued air strikes against the rebel positions in both districts. The LNA later said that several militants’ bodies were lying in Ganfouda and that they had removed one of them.

libyaherald.com

An air strike targeting Islamist militants has killed at least seven people near the southwestern Libyan city of Sabha, a local official and media reports said on Tuesday.

Gunmen later seized the remains of the suspected militants from a morgue, said the official, who did not want to be identified for fear of reprisals.

The early morning strike hit three houses in Gardah, northwest of Sabha, destroying two of them and damaging the third, said the official.

It was not clear who carried out the strike, and military officials could not immediately be reached for comment. Forces on both sides of conflict-ridden Libya’s east-west political divide have used warplanes to strike militant targets.

The United States has also conducted air strikes on Islamist militants in Libya, but a U.S. defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said its forces did not carry out the latest strike.

There were conflicting reports about whether the suspected militants were linked to al Qaeda or Islamic State, both of which have a presence in Libya’s south.

Libyan news website Press Solidarity said the main target was a militant called Abdulrahman Belhaj Hesnawi, also known as Abu Talha al-Libi, though several reports said he was not among the dead.

The local official, from Gardah, said some of those killed were Libyan and some were foreign, and it was not known whether they included Hesnawi. “After one or two hours a group of gunmen went to a local hospital in Adri, 35 km (22 miles) from Gardah, and they seized the remains of the bodies,” he said.

The United States has been conducting air strikes on Islamic State in the group’s former bastion of Sirte, 500 km (310 miles) north of Gardah, since Aug. 1, and had previously launched several strikes against militant targets elsewhere in the vast North African country.

France has acknowledged flying intelligence and surveillance flights over Libya.

Some Islamic State militants who were based in Sirte fled south into the desert when a campaign to oust them from the city began six months ago, according to Libyan officials.

reuters.com