During his last press briefing as Secretary of Defense on Jan. 19, Ash Carter discussed the recent airstrikes targeting two Islamic State camps in Libya. One Defense Department video shows surveillance of fighters at one of the “potential” training camps, like reported by longwarjournal.org

https://www.dvidshub.net/video/505781/surveillance-isil-libya-fighters-potential-training-camp

Carter said the group’s “external plotters” were among these fighters, claiming that they were connected to operations in Europe.

“Initial estimates indicate that the air strikes killed more than 80 ISIL [Islamic State] fighters, many of whom had converged there after fleeing from local partner forces who had cleared Sirte last month with our help,” Carter said. The jihadists were ejected from Sirte, formerly their North African stronghold, in December after months of fighting.

“Importantly,” Carter continued, “these strikes were directed against some of ISIL’s external plotters, who were actively planning operations against our allies in Europe.”

Carter was asked if the jihadis killed southwest of Sirte posed “imminent threats” to the West. “Well, they certainly are people who…were actively plotting operations in Europe,” he responded. “And [they] may also have been connected with some attacks that have already occurred in Europe.”

The Defense Department has not identified the specific Islamic State operatives who were killed, or provided details concerning their ties to plots in Europe. But this isn’t the first time the Pentagon has tied Libya jihadists to the Islamic State’s external operations.

In Feb. 2016, the US military bombed a training camp near Sabratha. The Defense Department said Noureddine Chouchane, a Tunisian Islamic State facilitator also known as “Sabir,” was “associated with the training camp.”

Chouchane was tied to the deadly Mar. 18, 2015 attack on the Bardo Museum in Tunis and may have also played a part in the July 2015 shooting spree at a beach in Sousse, Tunisia. The Pentagon suggested that Chouchane could “potentially” be involved in “planning external attacks on” American “interests in the region,” in addition to recruiting new members for Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s global operation and “establishing bases in Libya.”

A car bomb has exploded outside a mosque in Benghazi wounding up to 17 people, two of them seriously. Reports that one has since died have not been confirmed, like reported by libyaherald.com .

Former interior minister Ashour Shuwail and his son Sulaiman were among the wounded. However, neither were seriously injured, a member of the family told the Libya Herald although it has since been said that Sulaiman is in intensive care.

The car bomb went off as worshippers were leaving the Abu Hourira mosque in the city’s Al-Majouri district after Friday prayers. It is not known to whom the car belonged nor the intended target although it is suspected that it was Shuwail.

Highly regarded throughout the country and considered by many as the man they would like to be prime minister, he tried to take to tough line on the then growing threat from militants, particularly in Benghazi and Derna while interior minister but was blocked by others in the cabinet. In the end he resigned, although technically he did so over the Political Isolation Law.

In 2013 and 2014, car bombings and assassinations, particularly outside mosques after Friday prayers, became all too rife in Benghazi. These tailed off after the start of Khalifa Haftar’s Operation Dignity targeting Islamist militants who were widely suspected of being behind them. However, there have been fears that the city would see their return with the militants now largely defeated and forced out of their enclaves.

Today, Donald Trump will be sworn in as President of the US. Foreign policy will crystallise when the full Cabinet is approved by the US Congress, like reported by timesofmalta.com

Will Russia now overtly support the LNA (Libyan National Army) and 74-year-old Khalifa Haftar, many years ago an admitted CIA asset? Could that put it at odds with the incoming Trump administration or will this be a welcome and calculated play from Trump’s perspective?

What will change in the complicated ground war in Libya between the various warring factions in south, east and west Libya?

Blackwater founder Erik Prince allegedly secretly used private mercenary pilots in armed agricultural aircraft to bomb Western Libya’s Islamist extremists. Could it be true there has been such a sudden and dramatic escalation in hostilities?

What of Isis’s relatively small presence in the Sirte and Sabratha regions? What of the tentative potential thawing of US-Russian relations put on edge by doubtful allegations of Trump being blackmailed by Russia.

The first three months following the inauguration will be the most telling.  Until then, let us hazard a guess as to what will unfold.

One indication is certain. Washington interests now favour a military solution to the quagmire in Libya that involves the newly promoted field marshal, Khalifa Hafter who would become part of some sort of leadership coalition or council.

Serious Libyan commentators agree talks must include all ground players, even former Gaddafi officials if the country is to be united.

However, the eradication of Isis in Libya is still paramount. That joint desire could put the US and Russia on the same side in Libya.

Russia has shown her strong willingness to support Hafter on two recent occasions; at the Moscow foreign ministry in mid-December, and again, last week when Hafter was helicoptered to the neutral waters of the Mediterranean Sea, outside Libyan territorial boundaries, by Russian military, for a video conference call with Moscow senior officials on board a Russian warship.

This behaviour indicates a clear willingness to support Hafter’s Libyan National Army, as the legitimate military force of the elected Parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk. For some it’s even indicative of Russian support to Hafter with or without the HoR’s backing.

Signs now seem to indicate an imminent military attempt by the LNA and Hafter to move west and take Tripoli.

Russia’s rationale for involvement was summarised by Foreign Minister Lavrov’s categoric statement on December 2 that it “does not want Libya to end up like Syria, as a failed state”.

But the motivation undoubtedly is one of self-interest. As with Syria, Russia sees an opportunity to gain new increased and important influence in an Arab state and I judge that this is better achieved before President Trump takes the full reigns of power; out trumping Trump so to speak. That’s why I think fighting internally will escalate very soon.

Obama’s self-professed greatest foreign policy mistake in office was the failure to quell the post-revolution chaos in Libya. What better way for Trump to truly legitimise his position and silence the naysayers than strategically achieving peace in Libya and an end to Isis’s influence there via a Russian alliance?

It is no secret Trump has announced his desire to cooperate with Putin, and he actually may view Russia’s very public support of Hafter as an asset rather than a liability, securing the region, making an unlikely ally and increasing the popularity of his administration in one stroke.

This position assumes that the West will abandon its failed attempt to shore up the UN’s puppet government (GNA). It and its leader Serraj are viewed as wholly illegitimate and inept by the country’s populace. It is time for EU/UN diplomats and politicians to recognise this and adapt to change and quickly.

Russian-made helicopters and arms were delivered to LNA indirectly and covertly via Russia’s ally’s the UAE and Egypt and they proved crucial in repelling attacks by militias at the key central oil ports, seized by LNA in September 2016.

Earlier this month, Russia publicly supported lifting the UN arms embargo. The West up until recently only wanted the embargo lifted for GNA militias. Presumably, if Western powers attempted to lift sanctions for only the GNA, Russia’s UNSC vote would be niet.

Therefore the LNA would appear to be the only entity that will be supported by the international community including Russia.

On the other hand another critical factor is oil. Russia has an option of buying direct from Cyrenaica (old name for East Libya), challenging western powers to intercept its tankers. A potential superpower flashpoint.

Cyrenica also wants its own flag as well as a new national anthem. This would in my opinion certainly lead to Libya becoming two separate countries, east and west Libya.

Structural and mismanagement issues remain and heighten internal tensions. For example GECOL (General Electricity Company of Libya) has all but collapsed as has electricity to the entire country. Combined with water distribution shortages and an unusually intense cold spell, the people’s patience is at an end.

So the wild card remains; the US to drop support for the GNA in its current form and shift it to the LNA.

US good relations with Putin and Moscow could well see Russia gaining a chunk of influence in Libya at presumably the expense of the Italians and British with the French seemingly solely interested in southern Libya.

“If Ben Guerdane had been located next to Falluja, we would have liberated Iraq.” So (reportedly) said Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, before he was killed a decade ago. He was referring reverentially to a town in south-eastern Tunisia that is one of the world’s biggest exporters of jihadists, like reported by economist.com

No place better epitomises the challenges facing Tunisia’s government as it tries to consolidate a wobbly democracy six years after the revolution that toppled the old dictatorship.

Hundreds of Tunisians marked the anniversary of the revolution on January 14th by taking to the streets to demand jobs. The protests began in Ben Guerdane before spreading to other poor places, such as Sidi Bouzid, Meknassi and Gafsa, where locals blocked the route of Beji Caid Essebsi, the president, who was in town to mark the anniversary. “Work is our right,” yelled the protesters, using the slogans of 2011.

Work is indeed a right enshrined in Tunisia’s constitution, adopted in 2014. But the jobless rate of 15% is higher than it was before the revolution. The rate for youngsters and those in the countryside is higher still. This is partly because a series of terrorist attacks has driven away tourists and foreign investors. Unemployed protesters have blocked roads leading from phosphate mines, further harming export earnings. Past governments have responded by promising to create public-sector jobs. The result is a bloated, unaffordable bureaucracy. A hiring freeze is now in effect.

Disillusioned and aimless, youngsters in rural areas are prime targets of jihadist recruiters. Some 6,000 Tunisians are said to have joined armed groups abroad, with most going to fight in Iraq, Syria and Libya, and some farther afield. One was Anis Amri, a 24-year-old follower of Islamic State (IS) who drove a lorry into a Christmas market in Berlin, killing 12 people. He was later killed by Italian police.

The government is trying to stem the flow of people joining jihadists abroad. It has closed mosques led by radical preachers and keeps an eye on thousands of young suspects. Tunisians under the age of 35 are not allowed to travel to Libya, Turkey or Serbia, the main transit routes to Iraq and Syria. The borders with Algeria and Libya have been tightened. Parliament has passed an anti-terrorism law, criticised by human-rights groups, that gives the government more power to detain suspects and tap phones, among other things.

In any case, the flow is reversing, with fighters making their way home as the groups they had joined are pushed back. The interior ministry says 800 have already returned. Many fear that some will carry out attacks once back. Indeed, IS has told them to do so and has claimed responsibility for several atrocities in the country. Last March a large group of Tunisian IS members crossed the border from Libya to stage an assault on Ben Guerdane that left dozens dead. Tunisian security forces fear a possible “Somalisation” of the country.

Last month Mr Essebsi played down the threat. But after much criticism, and calls to strip the militants of their citizenship, the government braced up. Youssef Chahed, the prime minister, who belongs to Nidaa Tounes, the main secular political party, has said that returning militants will immediately be arrested. Ennahda, the moderate Islamist party that shares power with Nidaa Tounes, backs this approach, though some blame it for exacerbating the problem by previously indulging radical preachers. “We have all the details on [the returnees],” says Mr Chahed. “We know them one by one.” But many probably left the country and came back without passing through customs. Moreover, the grievances that prompted so many to become jihadists have not yet been dealt with. In places like Ben Guerdane locals still feel that the government does not care very much about them.

Following three days of reconciliation meetings in Russia, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party has agreed to launch talks to form a unity government with Gaza-based terror group Hamas

“We have reached an agreement under which, within 48 hours, we will call on Mahmoud Abbas to launch consultations on the creation of a [national unity] government,” Azzam al-Ahmad, a senior official of the ruling Fatah party, told a press conference.

He added that the Moscow talks had the aim of restoring “the unity of the Palestinian people.”

Meanwhile, Hamas’ deputy chairman, Moussa Abu Marzouk, said a unity government “is the most effective tool to promote the contentious issues that formed during the years of division, and it is responsible to promote the solutions, including the holding of free and democratic elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.”

Iran-backed terror group Palestinian Islamic Jihad was also in Russia for the talks. Both PIJ and Hamas have sworn to destroy Israel.

According to The Tower magazine, “A Fatah-Hamas unity government would violate one of the principles for Middle East peace set out by the Mideast Quartet (the United States, Russia, European Union, and United Nations). In 2006, the Quartet stated that ‘all members of a future Palestinian Government must be committed to non-violence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations.’ ”

There have been multiple attempts in recent years to form a Palestinian unity government, the most recent being in 2014.

The factions will form a new Palestinian National Council that will in turn select the PLO Executive Committee. Within two months the new members will attempt to form a government.

Hamas has so far refused to renounce terror or change its charter calling for Israel’s destruction.

Ahmad, the Fatah spokesman, also claimed that “today the conditions for [a unity initiative] are better than ever.”

However, both factions have been fraught with bitter infighting. In the past week, power outages in the Gaza Strip led to protests against Hamas. Hamas made several arrests, including imprisoning a Fatah spokesman. Fatah party members burned photos of Hamas and vice versa. Abbas himself charged Hamas with stealing Gaza’s electricity.

Nevertheless, both groups showed some signs of unity when they celebrated the Jerusalem terror attack that left four Israeli soldiers dead.

An Israeli police officer was killed in an attack on the Bedouin village of Um el-Hiran in the Negev desert after being hit by a car driven by a Bedouin of the village whom police said was “a terrorist affiliated with the Islamic movement”, a police spokesman said.

The attack took place after police arrived in the village to protect the demolition of 14 houses built illegally.

The vehicle’s driver was shot and killed by police on the scene.

Various others were wounded in the clash, including Ayman Oudeh, leader of the United Arab List, the third-largest party in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

The tension stems from the decision by Israeli authorities to tear down the village of Um el-Hiran, defined as illegal, in order to build a Jewish village on the same land.

Interior Security Minister Ghilad Erdan said broad development plans were provided for the Bedouins in other areas of the Negev.

The demolition of the first homes in Um el-Hiran was sanctioned by various court orders.

On Tuesday night Israeli police took up positions in the village in order to protect the bulldozers.

Oudeh accused police of having acted with “unjustified brutality” in their response to the attack.

Last week the Arab community in Israel held a national protest strike following the demolition of 11 illegal buildings in Kalanswa, northeast of Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah says it has found an IDF spy drone that crashed in a rugged region of southern Lebanon, Al Manar reports.

Hezbollah says its fighters found the UAV, reportedly a Skylark drone, and “moved it to a safe place for examination.”

The UAV has been missing since early Monday, and Israeli officials had asked UNIFIL for help in locating the craft.

Hezbollah says that the Lebanese military was unable to reach the area and that the UN force also searched but did not find it.

Forces loyal to Libya’s eastern government said on Tuesday they had gained control over one of the last pockets of resistance held by Islamist-dominated opponents in Benghazi, like reported by reuters.com.

The Libyan National Army (LNA) troops captured the south-western district of Bosnaib from fighters loyal to Islamic State following a two-day assault backed by heavy weaponry and air strikes, said Fadel al-Hassi, an officer in the LNA’s special forces.

The LNA has been battling Islamists and other opponents in Benghazi since 2014, making major advances over the past year. It is led by Khalifa Haftar, who has become an increasingly dominant figure for factions based in the east that have refused to join a U.N.-backed government in Tripoli.

A medical official said 25 LNA troops were killed and 45 wounded in the latest fighting, and Hassi said two field commanders killed by mines were among the dead. No casualty figures were available for the LNA’s opponents.

On Sunday LNA forces lost a MIG fighter jet over Benghazi, which spokesman Ahmed al-Mismari said had likely been hit by a missile. The crew ejected and survived.