China’s plans to build a military base in Djibouti could be the first step toward Beijing’s deeper involvement in Africa – a strategy that should make the United States “very nervous,” according to journalist James Poulos.

The U.S. Special Envoy for the Great Lakes of Africa, Mr Thomas Perriello, would be visiting Burundi as part of his government’s efforts at ending crisis in the country.

The African Media Hub of the U.S. Department of State said in a statement that the Envoy would be visiting crisis-ridden Burundi, as well as Brussels, Belgium, Rome and Italy.

Perriello will also be visiting Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Kigali, Rwanda; Bukavu, Goma, and Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); Bujumbura, Burundi; and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

According to the statement, the trip is focused on supporting regional efforts to resolve crisis in Burundi, as well as support upcoming elections in the DRC.

“The U.S. Government strongly supports the regionally-mediated Burundian dialogue relaunched on Dec. 28, 2015, and is urging all stakeholders to remain committed to the process without preconditions.

“An inclusive dialogue remains the best route for peacefully resolving the crisis in Burundi and restoring the stability achieved by the Arusha Agreement.

“The Special Envoy will engage with Burundian stakeholders and the East African Community (EAC) leadership about next steps for advancing the dialogue, including moving the dialogue to Arusha, Tanzania,’’ it said.

The statement also reiterated the U.S. government’s commitment to supporting the DRC in holding her “elections as per the constitution.”

It said that the Envoy would meet with Congolese stakeholders to discuss next steps in the electoral process and the importance of respecting human rights during and after the elections.

The statement also said that Perriello’s visit would culminate in Addis-Ababa, where he would join the U.S. delegation to the African Union Summit.

vanguardngr.com

Cameroon is sending troops and attack helicopters to its eastern border with Central African Republic amid reports that rebels from the war-torn country have looted shops and kidnapped cattle farmers in Cameroon, Le Jour newspaper reported on Tuesday.

Cameroon’s army will be deployed in the Mbere department, according to the Yaounde-based newspaper, citing military sources it didn’t identify.

bloomberg.com

Most Americans first heard of the Nigerian terrorist group Boko Haram when the group kidnapped about 270 schoolgirls from Chibok two years ago. The raid captured the world’s attention and it sparked a social media campaign called #BringBackOurGirls, which drew support worldwide, including from First Lady Michelle Obama.

The Boko Haram insurgency is a lot more complicated than outside observers can imagine. Nigeria has been battling the Islamic terrorist group since 2002. They want to establish their own sovereign region in the northern part of the country, which has almost 180 million people with about 300 ethnic groups. The North is largely Muslim, while the South is predominantly Christian. The country has struggled with ethnic and religious tensions since it gained independence from the British in 1960.

Dr.Fait Muedini, a professor in the department of International Studies at Butler University is an expert on political Islamist movements. He believes their tactics, which target Muslims and Christians indiscriminately, have not won them many supporters.

“Many Muslims in Nigeria and throughout the world have spoken out against Boko Haram due to the crimes that they have committed against Muslims and non-Muslims alike,” said Muedini. “It is important to note that while Boko Haram attempts to claim that they are representing the ‘true Islam,’ the vast majority of the Muslims in Nigeria, and in the world have condemned the ideology and actions of groups such as Boko Haram, and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Many Muslims are speaking out against the group, arguing repeatedly that Islam should not be associated with the violence and intolerance portrayed by this organization.”

The Boko Haram insurgency should have been easily crushed by Nigeria’s large standing military, which has a defense budget of about $2.3 billion. But like many institutions in the country, the military is riddled with corruption. Former Defense Minister Bello Haliru Mohammed has been accused of laundering $1.5 million and some soldiers have been court martialed because they refused to fight against the terrorists, claiming poor equipment and not being paid.

When word of the kidnapping of the Chibok school girls became an international incident it also became an embarrassment for Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan. Jonathan, a Christian from the South, faced widespread criticism for his failure to act on the situation, particularly since Boko Haram has begun using teenage female suicide bombers to target public venues such as marketplaces, churches and mosques. His inaction eventually cost him his job, as frustrated Nigerians voted to replace him with retired Gen.
Muhammadu Buhari, who briefly ruled the country in the 1980s.

Buhari, a career military man from the largely Muslim North, promised to quash the Boko Haram insurgency. Initially, they had some success, but Buhari drew widespread criticism when he declared the insurgency was “technically” over. But in fact, the terrorist group continues to kill Nigerians and there seems to be no end to the conflict not to mention, the Chibok school girls have still not been rescued.

Beverly Hills psychiatrist Dr. Carole Lieberman, M.D., author of “Coping With Terrorism: Dreams Interrupted,” a book on the psychological effects of terrorism, said it was a mistake for Buhari to claim victory so soon.

“It was self aggrandizing to claim he had won the battle against Boko Haram,” said Lieberman. “While these girls are still being held hostage and likely continuing to be raped and tortured, it is obscene for (President) Buhari to pretend that Boko Haram is not enjoying an ongoing victory.”

Abu Grema, a former captain in the Nigerian Army, now works as a security consultant, however believes Buhari’s controversial statement was largely accurate, saying the intense military offensive by Nigerian forces has reduced Boko Haram’s ability to take over towns.

“Even if he (Buhari) had managed to kill all of them, there is no end to terrorism,” said Lieberman. “There will be people to take their place. That is the problem with terrorism all over the world.”

Muedini agrees with Lieberman and believes military force alone won’t finish Boko Haram.

“Buhari has taken a very strong military approach towards dealing with Boko Haram,” said Muedini. “Many writing on these issues have suggested that while this has been viewed as being effective, violence alone won’t stop the organization. In fact, we have just seen additional attacks by Boko Haram just recently.”

Lieberman said it was particularly troubling that Buhari declared victory, even though the Chibok school girls have not been rescued. Even if the girls return, they will need “years of psychotherapy” because of the abuse they have endured after being missing for nearly two years. Lieberman wonders if many of the girls had undergone brainwashing, which might explain why few of them have attempted to escape. And the ones fortunate enough to get back home will likely exhibit symptoms of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, anxiety, depression, nightmares and weight loss. They will also have abandonment issues. Since it took so long to rescue them, they will think that no one cared about their fate.

What remains to be true is that stopping the Boko Haram insurgency will take a multi-pronged approach from the government, including tackling corruption, poverty and other social problems. Many people joined the group because they think that an Islamic government would bring an end to the widespread financial mismanagement and economic inequality in Nigeria.

“In order to truly counter groups such as Boko Haram, there will need to be education about Islam, as well as government work on providing equal rights, employment, education rights, etc.,” said Muedini. “Some scholars have also written about the need to combat corruption, and if this happens, this would reduce the number of those moving towards groups such as Boko Haram.”

sunnewsonline.com

Tanzania has become the first member of the East African Community to openly endorse the deployment of African Union peacekeeping troops to strife-torn Burundi. During a meeting with the head of the African Union last week, Tanzanian Foreign Minister Augustine Mahiga urged cooperation from Burundi’s government, which considers the proposed mission as an invasion, according to Kenyan newspaper the Daily Nation.

“The chairperson of the commission and the Tanzanian minister of foreign affairs — bearing in mind the importance of ending acts of violence and human rights violations — urged the government of Burundi to fully cooperate with the AU towards the early deployment of Maprobu,” the African Union said in a statement Friday, referring to the official acronym for the African Prevention and Protection Mission in Burundi force. “Both leaders expressed deep concern at the political, security and humanitarian situation prevailing in Burundi and at its consequences for regional security and stability.”

Tanzania and Burundi are both members of the East African Community, a regional intergovernmental organization that also includes Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda. Tanzania has long played a leading role in the region. In 1979, its army invaded Uganda and ousted dictator Idi Amin.

Tanzania was set to host peace talks last week between Burundi’s government and opposition groups in Arusha, after they opened in Uganda late last month. But a senior official in Burundi’s Foreign Ministry said the government will not partake in the talks because they included those who are “supporting violence,” VOA News reported.

The African Union announced its plan in December to send a 5,000-strong peacekeeping force imto Burundi to curb intensifying violence and protect civilians, following renewed violence in the small East African nation. The 54-member regional bloc gave the government 96 hours to respond and was met with rejection. In any case,  the proposed mission still needs a green light from the United Nations Security Council, according to CNN.

Burundian government representative Philippe Nzobonariba quickly warned the African Union against deploying a force, saying his country has enough troops to maintain peace. Nzobonariba said sending forces without the government’s consent would be viewed as an attack on Burundi, the Associated Press reported.

The crisis in Burundi began in April when President Pierre Nkurunziza, a former Hutu rebel, said he would run for a third term. Critics said Nkurunziza was violating the constitution and a peace deal that ended 12 years of civil war between Burundi’s Hutu majority and its Tutsi minority. Demonstrations against Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term broke out, and violent clashes erupted between protesters and forces loyal to the ruling party. A failed coup d’etat escalated the violence in May. More than 200,000 people have been displaced during the current conflict.

Nkurunziza’s landslide victory in the June presidential election fueled fresh demonstrations and attacks in the capital, Bujumbura. Dozens have been killed since then, including Burundian opposition figures and supporters, as well as a former army chief and a former intelligence chief. Leading Burundian human rights activist Pierre Claver Mbonimpa was shot and seriously wounded in August by gunmen on motorbikes in the capital. Despite the attacks, Nkurunziza was sworn in during a low-key inauguration ceremony in August.

Last month, a Paris-based human rights group has accused Burundi’s police of unlawful killings in the latest attacks. Security forces loyal to Nkurunziza conducted sweeping raids and arrests in areas of Bujumbura after unidentified gunmen attacked military barracks Dec. 11. At least 300 young men were seized, with more than half of them allegedly killed and the remainder missing, the International Federation for Human Rights and the Ligue Iteka said in a December statement. Burundi’s military has downplayed the death toll, saying 87 people were killed and 49 were captured, according to BBC News.

ibtimes.com

At least one government official was killed and another was wounded in a car bomb attack in Shibis district north of Mogadishu on Sunday morning, police and witnesses said.

According to police officer Abdiasiis Jama, Al-Shabaab militants are suspected to have planted explosives in the car.

“So far, we have no more details, but we will try to get more information. We heard that one of the two government officials inside the car was killed and the other was badly injured,” Jama said.

Witnesses said they heard heavy explosion early Sunday morning.

“We were sleeping when we heard the explosion. We knew that two government officials were in the car,” Mohamed Sheikh, a Mogadishu resident, told Xinhua.

So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the attack, but the Al-Qaida linked group Al-Shabaab has launched similar attacks in Mogadishu recently.

The insurgents once controlled much of Somalia before the African Union and Somali forces drove the group out of Mogadishu in 2011.

xinhuanet.com

Burundian men take part in a protest against the president’s bid to cling to power for a third term in Musaga, outskirts of Bujumbura, on April 28, 2015. At least five people have died since clashes broke out on April 26 after the ruling CNDD-FDD party, which has been accused of intimidating opponents, designated President Pierre Nkurunziza its candidate in the June 26 presidential election. On April 28, a spokesman for the President Nkurunziza said the President “won’t back down.” AFP PHOTO / SIMON MAINA (Photo credit should read SIMON MAINA/AFP/Getty Images)

By a simple definition, negotiation is getting others to give you what you want, by giving them what they want; put that in the context of Burundi’s ongoing peace talks and ask, who is giving what to whom and in return for what?

You will realize there’s a problem.

It is obvious that for peace to return in Burundi, first, the negotiations must yield; in other words, one party should give away something (concession) but also take something from the given party (compromise).

But who are the actors in Burundi’s political dispute and what are their respective demands? Before the concessions and compromises, the mediators of these negotiations need to define the aggressor and the aggressed.

I watched Uganda’s Minister of Defense Dr. Crispus Kiyonga on television last night, his country is playing mediator; he was talking about the talks and how they must yield.

Unfortunately, from his address, one couldn’t easily tell who is who in these negotiations or what their demands are, for that matter. Blame it on the press’ failure to define the actors?

Most of the news reports have so far been nothing but generic in defining the actors as ‘talks between the government and opposition groups.’ This is not good enough a premise for talks. In South Sudan, we had Salva Kiir vs Riek Machar.

For clear cut negotiations, the aggressor and aggressed must be known. In Burundi’s case, it is tricky. Can Pierre Nkurunziza be referred to as the aggressed party in this case? To do that, one must assume that his government is legitimately holding power and that the ‘opposition groups’ are trying to forcefully taking this power.

Yet according to the opposition rhetoric, Nkurunziza is an imposter holding state power illegally, this after he abrogated the republic’s constitution to obtain an illegal third term in office.

But going by the opposition argument would mean that those ‘fighting to liberate the Burundian constitution’ from its ‘kidnappers’ are the legitimate party.

However, such an approach would hit a dead end, therefore, for convenience and perhaps better results, Nkurunziza’s government has to be seen as the ‘aggressed’ and the opposition groups as the ‘aggressors.’

So we need a room with three tables then, that for the aggressed, aggressor and mediator plus one more, that of observers. Is that it then? Not quite.

There’s a problem regarding Burundi’s opposition groups. Right from the beginning of the conflict, the chaos has failed to produce a clear and consistent face representing the voices of resistance as an alternative to the alleged impostor.

Mr. Agathon Rwasa, leader of Burundi’s main opposition party National Liberation Forces (FNL) was at the vanguard of the resistance in the build-up to the elections but he ‘sold’ out after accepting a government appointment as deputy Speaker of Parliament.

Little known Delphin Ndikumana was unveiled as the head of opposition delegation in the first leg of talks held in Kampala last month. Assuming Ndikumana is the face of opposition, can the negotiations now begin?

Four questions must be answered beginning with, what mutual negotiating outcome do the parties want to achieve, peace? The talks were initiated by external parties meaning that the Burundian actors don’t see the need yet for peace talks as the best way out of their mess.

What is the best-case, second-best case and worst case scenarios of these talks? This has to do with the expectations of ‘aggressor and aggressed parties.’ For Nkurunziza, we can assume he wants to be left alone to have his second term in office, seen as third term by opposition.

The opposition on the other hand, reportedly wants the restoration of constitutionalism which means; Nkurunziza must leave office and give way for fresh elections in which he is not a candidate.

Why should Nkurunziza agree to the opposition demands? That is where serious problems emerge; already, the government side has shown nothing but disregard to the opposition.

For successful negotiations, actors must have strong chips to use in bargaining for their respective demands, as it is now, the opposition, leaderless as it appears, has nothing to use against Nkurunziza in a bid to secure their demands.

Nonetheless, what is Nkurunziza’s government willing to give in return for the opposition leaving him alone? This takes us back to what the opposition is demanding and since they don’t have any cards to play against Nkurunziza, they must revise their requests, compromise.

If they refuse to compromise and the government walks away from the talks, what are the likely consequences?

As long as the Burundian opposition remains generally leaderless, Nkurunziza has nothing to lose if the negotiations collapse.

Therefore, it is clear what to expect from the Burundian talks; nothing. To win any concessions from Nkurunziza, the opposition must first take away something that Nkurunziza’s government values, something close to his power, a major political constituency.

That way, the opposition will have a bargaining chip which is missing at the moment and it will also make Nkurunziza appreciate peace talks as crucial for his own political survival.

I know that the sweetest victory is one won without fighting but I also know that sometimes, to put down the gun, one must pick it up first.

newtimes.co.rw

A veteran al Qaeda commander called for a return to sharia law in north Mali at a meeting attended by hundreds of local residents, a video showed. The video was the first in a series entitled “From the Depths of the Sahara” released by al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s (AQIM) Al Andalus Media Productions, SITE Intelligence Group said on Thursday (January 7).

A Kenyan court on Thursday sentenced an Islamic cleric to 20 years in prison for radicalization of minors to join Al-Shabaab terror group in the coastal city of Mombasa.

Mombasa Principal Magistrate Diana Mochache found Samwuel Wanjala, alias Mohammed Wabwire, guilty of radicalizing pupils at a local primary school through extremist ideologies.

Mochache said Wabwire, a former student at Maseno University, misused his leadership position as Imam and engaged in anti-terror activities of radicalizing the school-going children in the coastal town of Kilifi between the year 2014 and 2015.

“The court strongly believes the accused took advantage of the poverty rate in the region by offering the children some food, thereby using it as a bet to trap them,” the magistrate ruled.

“He has already sold his soul to the devil and was in the process of selling the souls of other children. It is in my view that the accused person need to be kept away from the public for a long time,” Mochache said.

The magistrate ruled that the prosecution was able to convince the court that the pupils were radicalized by the Imam.

While making his ruling, Mochache stated that the pupils who testified in the case indicated clearly that they were secretly radicalized to jihad teaching in a Madrasah where they attended religious studies.

The magistrate said the accused labeled the children’s shirts with the term radical. The court however acquitted the accused of charge of being a member of Al-Shabaab.

Wabwire who was studying Bachelor of Arts and Political Science at Maseno University before being expelled after he stabbed a fellow student in 2012.

The court noted that the accused misused the peaceful Islam religion to propagate religious hatred.

“I believe the children who testified told the court the truth, because each child’s evidence was unique and distinct. Prosecution has proofed that he radicalized the pupil and I accordingly convict the accused,” said Mochache.

The government has intensified the war on terror with successful arrest of two wanted terror suspects and found cache of weapons in anti-terrorist operation in Malindi and Mombasa.

Police are looking for three other suspects, Kassim Abdhalla, Hussein Said aka Babli and Ismael Shosi, who are still on the run.

Mombasa county commissioner Nelson Marwa warned that the war on terror has just started and the past three years were just a “warm up”.

Last month, Wabwire who had denied the charges said he was just a victim of circumstances who had been framed by the committee members of the school who wanted him out of the school.

He denied being a member of the Al-Shabaab terror group and that he never taught any student radical issues.

xinhuanet.com