In March of 2019, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces captured ISIS’s last remaining territory. The SDF declared it a “total elimination of so-called caliphate.” However, the remaining pieces left of ISIS are now regrouping and making a destructive return in Iraq and Syria, like reported by theowp.org.

Security consultant Olivier Guitta said to Al-Jazeera that “after going underground, ISIS has been regrouping in Iraq and preparing for the next phase. It has been controlling a lot of villages and instilling fear in the hearts of the residents.” The first months of 2020 saw over 600 ISIS assaults that targeted various areas in Iraq. For Syria, the death toll is rising daily in the Deir Az Zor region, increasing it by hundreds through targeted strikes.

The UN estimates that ISIS has around 10,000 active fighters scattered in Iraq and Syria. They also believe the organization holds over $100 million in reserves that were mostly gathered through extortion and funding via cryptocurrency from foreign support. So, they hold tremendous power over local regions as they move in cells in deserts and rural areas, often crossing the borders between Iraq and Syria. Guitta says that “ISIS’s threat is very, very real.”

Further, according to the UN, the global pandemic has been an asset for ISIS propaganda to spread throughout the Internet. The socio-economic fallout it brought to the world may incite some people to become susceptible to the ISIS rhetoric’s increasing exposure. Additionally, the group is prying on military weaknesses attributed to the pandemic and political restlessness to launch repeated attacks on its core areas of operations.

The UN recommends immediate international actions to be taken against terrorist fighters. Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism Vladimir Voronkov said, “while ISIL has not developed a purposeful strategy to exploit the pandemic, its efforts to regroup and to reinvigorate its activities has gained further momentum.”

U.S Central Command’s General Kenneth McKenzie said to VOA News that “unless the international community finds a way to repatriate, reintegrate into home communities, and support locally ground reconciliation programs we will bear witness to the indoctrination of the next generation of ISIS.” According to Al-Jazeera, the American military counts over 2,500 troops in Iraq and around 700 in northeast Syria.

The revival of ISIS also brought more than 30 deaths to the al-Hol refugee camp that shelters around 62,000 women and children in northern Syria. According to Rojava Information Center, 22 attacks were claimed by ISIS and were perpetrated by young men between 17 and 25 years old.

In response, the UN is “deeply concerned at the dire situation faced by mostly women and children in camps that have no access to medicine, hygiene or shelter.” According to them, the pandemic has “exacerbated restrictions on humanitarian aid.”

The serious dangers attributed to the resurgence of ISIS is acknowledged by many professionals and international institutions. Voronkov presses on the need to “scourge terrorism.” This means overcoming ISIS in the real world, but also in the cyberspace. Concluding its report on the matter, the UN says that “the group could regain the ability to carry out external operations in the course of 2021, out of either its core in Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic or on of its stronger regional affiliates.”

Al Qaeda gunmen in Yemen killed four civilians and eight pro-government soldiers in a dawn attack on Thursday, launching grenades and firing machine guns on a southern checkpoint, an official said like reported by dawn.com.

The suspected jihadists opened fire in the southern province of Abyan before escaping, the official said, asking not to be named.

“It was gunmen, believed to be from Al Qaeda, who launched the attack with machine guns and RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades), killing eight soldiers and four civilians,” the official said.

The checkpoint in the coastal district of Ahwar was manned by members of the Security Belt, a powerful southern Yemen separatist force.

The militia is dominated by the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which last year joined a power-sharing unity government, fighting the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the country’s north.

Security Belt forces have played a decisive role in the fight against Al Qaeda and the militant Islamic State group, forcing them to retreat from towns into rural areas.

An STC official and medic in Abyan confirmed the death toll, but Al Qaeda has not yet issued any statements on the attack.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was born in 2009 between the network’s offshoots in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, as they faced the onslaught of US and regional military campaigns.

It then took advantage of the war that erupted in Yemen in 2014 between the government and the Houthi rebels, bolstering its presence in the south of the country, and launching attacks against both sides.

The United States, which considers AQAP the terror group’s most dangerous branch, has carried out a campaign of drone strikes for the past two decades — greatly weakening the terror group.

AQAP fighters are estimated to number in the low thousands, according US estimates in 2019.

In early 2021, the jihadi movement was the most splintered it had been since prior to 9/11 when al Qaeda was one among many jihadi groups. The movement had three main poles: al Qaeda and its branches from Afghanistan to West Africa; the Islamic State (ISIS) and its external provinces from North Africa to South Asia to East Asia, and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), mainly in northern Syria, like reported by wilsoncenter.org.

Al Qaeda and ISIS are still engaged in global jihadism, regional military campaigns, and local politics. The two differed on religious interpretations, such as when a Muslim can be considered an apostate, or takfir – and what punishment or excommunication was justified. They also split over the right conditions to create an Islamic state. ISIS’s primary goal has been to capture and govern territory.

Al Qaeda’s goal is to convert people to gradually build a global caliphate but controlling territory has not been a priority in its short-term strategy. In contrast, HTS has focused mainly on local jihadism and backing a civilian polity in northwest Syria. Although its predecessor was once aligned with al Qaeda until 2016/2017, HTS has since become more independent within the jihadosphere. Most other jihadi groups have sided with either al Qaeda or ISIS since their own discord in 2013-2014. Both al Qaeda and ISIS are in transition phases. Neither entity was at its peak, yet neither were degraded, and they had differing challenges.

Al Qaeda: Al Qaeda was diminished in impact and visibility, partly because of deaths of leadership. Ayman al Zawahiri was still the leader of al Qaeda’s broader network, but several key leaders were killed in 2020:

Jan. 29, 2020: Qassim al Raimi, leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Yemen

June 3, 2020: Abdelmalek Droukdel, leader of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, was killed by French forces in Mali

June 14, 2020: Khaled al Aruri, leader of al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Huras al Din’s leader, was reportedly killed in a U.S. drone strike in Syria

Aug. 7, 2020: Abu Muhammad al Masri, second in command of al Qaeda Central, was reportedly killed in Iran by Israeli agents (which Iran later denied)

Oct. 24, 2020: Husam ‘Abd al-Rauf, top propagandist al Qaeda Central, was reportedly killed by Afghan forces

In the past, al Qaeda has adjusted to the loss of leaders, with new figures emerging to take up the banner. But the turnover at the top also threatened instability, partly since communication among senior leaders has long been less efficient due to the danger of communications intercepts. The question whenever there is a transition to new leaders is whether they will focus more on regional or local conflicts, or will they redirect resources toward global operations? So far, al Qaeda has given priority to widening its regional reach. As of early 2021, it has six core branches stretching from the Sahel to the Indian Subcontinent.

ISIS: ISIS in Iraq and Syria lost the final parts of the Islamic State caliphate in 2019, but it was not totally defeated. The Pentagon estimated that it still had at least 10,000 fighters. In 2020, it managed to sustain attacks—notably assassinations and bombings—in both countries. Yet there were key differences between the two battlefields. In Iraq, ISIS carried out operations throughout the country. In Syria, ISIS attacks were more concentrated in the eastern side of the Euphrates River Valley.

ISIS was still capable of operations outside of Iraq and Syria – even well beyond the Middle East. In 2020, ISIS’s province in northeast Mozambique garnered greater international attention since it had seized and then withdrew from villages at various points. Likewise, the ISIS province in West Africa also ramped up attacks, making it one of the biggest threats after Iraq.

HTS: Unlike al Qaeda and ISIS, HTS focused on consolidating political and physical control in northwest Syria. It vanquished Huras al Din, the local al Qaeda branch in June 2020. But there are still questions about whether its political project—through the Salvation Government—will succeed or, instead, illustrate shortcomings ruling a society. HTS has not been as authoritarian as ISIS, but it has frequently arrested opponents or killed activists and civilians. If HTS can survive, its brand of insurgency and governance could appeal to other jihadi groups looking for a model, especially given the failure of ISIS to hold its territorial control.