Il governo francese ha lanciato un sito per combattere l’azione di reclutamento e per decriptare il messaggio jihadista… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HT2JKdgYRl8

Sono passate tre settimane dall’attacco terroristico al settimanale satirico Charlie Hebdo e al supermercato Kosher di Parigi. Saïd Kouachi, 34 anni, Chérif Kouachi, 32 anni e Hamyd Mourad, 18 anni, sono i colpevoli degli attentati che hanno causato la morte di 17 persone. Erano tutti nati in Francia.

Più di un migliaio di francese o di stranieri residenti in Francia sono al momento coinvolti in operazioni jihadiste in Iraq e Siria, o hanno intenzione di parteciparvi, secondo i dati riportati dal governo francese. Gli elementi per urlare alla “minaccia jihadista” ci sono tutti e lo stesso governo parigino si è attrezzato per contrastarla.

“Stop al jihadismo – la lotta contro la propaganda jihadista” è il nome del sito internet lanciato dal governo francese con lo scopo di dissuadere i potenziali jihadisti dall’unirsi ai gruppi combattenti islamici in Siria o Iraq. Comprendere, agire, decriptare e mobilizzarsi: queste le parole chiave utilizzate dalla Francia per spiegare “l’azione trasversale” messa in campo dallo Stato per rispondere a questa minaccia.

La “prevenzione” è il punto di forza della strategia anti-jihadista francese. Non si pensi però a un’analisi politica e sociale delle ragioni che spingono 1300 cittadini francesi a lasciare la propria vita per il jihad; non si speri in una revisione delle politiche sociali o dell’immigrazione, a un miglioramento delle condizioni economiche dei settori più emarginati della società. Niente di tutto ciò:“prevenire vuol dire, individuare i soggetti predisposti alla violenza e evitare, se possibile, di farli agire”, come si legge nel sito.

Ma come fare ad accorgersi delle tendenze jihadiste di un parente o amico? Il governo di Parigi ci fornisce un breve elenco dei “primi segni che possono metterci in allerta”.

Il cambio improvviso delle abitudini alimentari, l’interruzione delle attività sportive, l’allontanamento dagli amici, l’abbandono della scuola o della formazione professionale sono tutti campanelli d’allarme che devono mettere in guardia la famiglia dal pericolo di una “radicalizzazione jihadista” del loro caro.

Qualora si riscontrassero alcuni di questi segnali di avvertimento, il governo mette a disposizione un numero verde e un formulario da compilare per “segnalare una situazione preoccupante che si pensa possa minacciare un familiare o una persona cara”.

La lotta alla radicalizzazione violenta punta quindi sulla capacità d’osservazione di ogni cittadino francese che rappresentano, insieme a “tutti i protagonisti della vita pubblica, sociale e economica”, un ingranaggio di questo meccanismo di “prevenzione”.

Source: Arabpress

Mohammed Khalil Jibburi, an Arab member of the Kirkuk Provincial Council, told BasNews, “Volunteer fighters from Arab tribes have created a force in order to clear insurgents from their land.”

Sheikh Muslih Hamdani of the Albuhamdan tribe spoke to BasNews. “The force will fight hand in hand with the Peshmerga and participate in operations to free areas in southwestern Kirkuk.”

“The force is waiting for the command of senior officers to start the operation to free Hawija and other areas,” added Hamdani.

Most of the residents in southern Kirkuk are ethnically Arab and have been living under IS for more than six months. The areas include Hawija, Abasi, Zab, Riyaz, Rashad and other villages near Hawija.

Turkmen in Kirkuk province recently asked the federal government to arm them.

The diverse province of Kirkuk is home to Kurds, Arab, Turkmen and Assyrians.

Islamic State spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani announced that the group had “expanded” to South Asia in an audio statement released online on 26 January.

In the statement, Adani designated the new faction as Wilayat Khurasan – a reference to the historical name for the region encompassing present day Afghanistan and Pakistan.

He also said that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had accepted pledges of allegiances of former Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commanders made in a video released earlier this month and appointed Hafez Saeed Khan as the new faction’s leader.

The announcement of the Islamic State’s expansion to South Asia follows a series of indications that the group has been seeking a presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

However, it remains doubtful as to how much influence Baghdadi and the central Islamic State leadership will have over its new faction, especially as the faction’s capability and operational structure exited independently before its anointment as part of the Islamic State.

The influence of the central Islamic State leadership will ultimately depend on funds reaching local leaders, which is probably the main reason for the former TTP commanders swearing their allegiances to Baghdadi.

In this respect, IHS has identified soft indicators suggesting that the Islamic State’s finances are depleting, which would mean less money being available for affiliate groups.

FORECAST

In any case, we expect the new faction to primarily be focused on consolidating support among militants in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region, rather than carrying out large-scale attacks against the Pakistani government or military.

These tactics will be very to likely lead to fighting with the TTP and other militant groups based in the area.

Any evidence of financing would lead to a greater degree of influence from the Islamic State central leadership, which in turn would increase the probability of Islamic State militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan adjusting their target patterns in line with the Islamic State, including a greater emphasis on kidnapping for ransom.

Israel believes Iran is now helping Hezbollah to build tunnels under the Lebanese border. The evidence is piling up and an effort is underway to find and breach one and examine it.

Since the 50 Day War with Hamas ended last August in Gaza Israel has been examining the massive amounts of evidence it collected in the 32 Hamas tunnels into Israel that were discovered and destroyed.

Comparing notes with the CIA and other Western intel agencies it was determined that these tunnels were of a new design probably supplied by Iran.

Apparently nearly $100 million of the aid Iran supplied to Hamas to help the Palestinians instead went into building these elaborate tunnels. Israel determined that each of these tunnels required 350 truckloads of construction material and were built to specifications similar those described by agent reports of such tunnels inside Iran.

Israel believes that Hamas is already resumed building new tunnels into Israel.

This time the Israelis expect to have an easier time detecting them when the digging crosses the border. The first time around Iranian advisors have taught Hamas well how to keep the tunnel construction secret and even Israeli informants inside Gaza were not able to obtain many details.

The Israelis knew such tunnels existed but little else before the 50 Day War. This was apparently because of Iranian help in counterintelligence (defeating enemy espionage efforts).

Israel had their suspicions and that was one reason Israel sent troops (and intelligence specialists to collect evidence) in during July 2014.

The cross border tunnels can be a powerful weapon, if you can keep them secret. So far none of Israel’s enemies have been able to do that. But Hamas came close in Gaza and that shook up the Israelis quite a bit and both sides are making more efforts in this area.

Israel cannot afford to lose this battle, because undetected tunnels can be used to launch terror raids and, worse, kidnap Israelis and hold them for ransom.

The latest flare-up between Hezbollah and Israel may be more serious than it looks. Wednesday’s attack against Israeli troops in the Shebaa Farms by the “Martyrs of Quneitra” unit is an explicit response to the Israeli attack on a convoy in the Golan Heights that killed senior Hezbollah members and an Iranian general.

However, the rules of engagement since 2006 may now be seriously frayed. Neither side wants war, the cost will be too high for both; however, such logic may not prevail.

The timing of the Israeli strike in the Golan may have been, as former head of the Israeli army’s Southern Command, Yoav Galant, said, related to the upcoming Israeli elections. Galant pointed out that the war in Gaza in November 2012, triggered by the killing of Hamas military leader Ahmad Jabari, was only two months before the last Israeli election.

“The timing of the assassination was not something that could only have been done on that date,” Galant said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does gain some national security credentials through the strike, outflanking his rivals on that score, but he is unlikely to risk war and its consequences with the powerful Hezbollah before an election. 

Hezbollah had to retaliate in order not to appear impotent and to maintain its resistance image which has been heavily eroded by its support of Bashar al-Assad.

Fighting on two fronts
However, it also may not want to fight on two fronts. Indeed, Hizbollah has reassured Israel through UNIFIL that there is no interest in further escalation now that the latest attack evened the score. Therefore, on the surface, it would appear the deterrence will hold.

Despite these more rational considerations, there are other variables that may now tip the situation into high risk. First, the number and seniority of those killed in the Golan shakes the assumptions behind mutual deterrence that has existed since 2006.

Some call this action by the callous term “mowing the lawn”, meaning, if one cannot defeat the enemy, one can at least weaken him every few years, keeping him from getting too high and strong. This applies to Hamas as much as to Hezbollah.

Third, and possibly most importantly, Israel and Iran are manoeuvring and sending signals in a year of a potential Iranian-American deal. Even without an agreement, a rapprochement, and the ensuing change of attitude by the US, will mean that Israel will have to live with a new geopolitical scenario where Iran, and therefore Hezbollah, will effectively be closer to the US.

Many Israelis do not believe this is in their interest, and one way of affecting that equation, without upsetting the whole apple cart, is to weaken the nearest threat to Israel in that equation, Hezbollah. It’s a message to the US as well as to Iran that Israel is still militarily strong and will not countenance the new arrangement without some reaction. Indeed, too often in the Middle East, diplomacy is conducted through the gun rather than the pen, or at the very least the geopolitical equation is affected by such actions.

Finally, Hezbollah may have some points to gain from fighting Israel in a limited fashion and somewhat regaining its resistance credentials.

Sticking with the old
In the very near term, the likelihood is that both Hezbollah and Israel will try to stand by the old deterrence equation; limited attack, counterstrike and the game is over until the next (limited) round. The nature of the Golan strike and the changing regional geopolitical climate is, however, changing the underlying attitudes.

The temptation to do more may now be stronger as both parties get nervous, and the attitudes that underlay deterrence are seriously shaken. Hezbollah is already under strong pressure in Syria; Israel may be looking for an opportunity to weaken it. There is therefore, the risk that despite rational calculations, escalation will happen over the coming months.

A long all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel will be devastating. Israel will suffer much more than through its wars with Hamas, and Lebanon will be destroyed much more than in 2006. Israel is certain to go after Hezbollah’s bases which now extend far beyond the south. 

But there is also a risk that it will devastate Lebanese national infrastructure that, in its view, supports Hezbollah’s war effort. Such a war would be the summer Gaza war times 10, and there will be no real result at the end of the day. A short war would be a tragic convulsion possibly brought to an early stop by Iran and the US and their greater interests.

Hezbollah will have demonstrated Israeli vulnerability, Lebanon will be destroyed once again, and the darker energies of the Middle East will have once again been expended in the smaller and manipulated zones of conflict, such as Lebanon and Syria, partly in order to avoid an all-out regional war.  

Once again, thousands will be killed, homes destroyed, many others traumatised in order to maintain an already malevolent status quo, or gain marginal advantage in the infinite game of the Middle East.

Source: Al Jazeera

Baghdad Operations Command announced on Wednesday, that hundreds of terrorists of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria “ISIS” were killed in the toll of operations launched by the security forces during last week in Baghdad, Anbar and Salahuddin provinces.

The spokesman for the command, Brigadier Saad Maan said at a news conference today attended by “Shafaq News”, that the security forces killed 434 terrorists, and wounded 56 others in those provinces.”

On the criminal operations , Maan said that the percentage of abductions had fallen to 90%, indicating that the last week has witnessed four cases of kidnapping across the country, the security forces have managed to free them and arrest their abductors

Source: shafaaq

Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said Thursday that Israel received a message from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah that it was backing away from further violence, a day after the worst deadly clashes in years erupted along the border.

The Israel-Lebanon frontier, where two Israeli soldiers and a Spanish peacekeeper were killed in an exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel, appeared quiet early on Thursday.

Yaalon said Israel had received a message from the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon that Hezbollah was not interested in further escalation.

“Indeed, a message was received,” he said. “There are lines of coordination between us and Lebanon via UNIFIL (the UN force) and such a message was indeed received from Lebanon.”

In Beirut, Hezbollah officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

“I can’t say whether the events are behind us,” Yaalon added in a separate radio interview. “Until the area completely calms down, the Israel Defense Forces will remain prepared and ready.”

The Israeli soldiers were killed when Hezbollah fired five missiles at a convoy of Israeli military vehicles. The attack appeared to be in retaliation for a Jan. 18 Israeli air strike in southern Syria that killed several Hezbollah members and an Iranian general.

The peacekeeper in southern Lebanon was killed as Israel responded with air strikes and artillery fire, a UN spokesman and Spanish officials said.

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) chief Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi has called the Taliban supreme leader Mullah Mohammad Omar a fool and illiterate warlord.